What to Expect When Expecting: Willson Contreras

Here in my third installment of what to expect, I’m tackling Chicago Cubs catcher, Willson Contreras. You can check out the Cubs starting rotation and the bullpen. I do ask that you tell us what you expect from either of the first two reports, as well as all future reports.

Contreras has a tale of two seasons in 2018. Well, maybe a quarter season and three quarters season.

Coming out of the gate, it appeared that Contreras was on his way to become that MVP some believed he could be. His spring numbers were outstanding, he was coming off a Cubs Convention where he explained his ability to command respect from a pitching staff.

But the rigors of the position wore on him, quick.

Catching is the hardest and most demanding position in baseball. Crouching for an hour and a half everyday by itself will beat-up your legs, then add balls that are thrown at 100 mph pelting every inch of your body… then you still have to hit, run, and be more mentally involved than anyone on the field, every pitch.

Veteran back-up

Perhaps the worst move of Theo Epstein’s run in Chicago has been the inability to provide a reliable veteran back-up since Alex Avila and Rene Rivera left.

While everyone in the Cubs organization has high praises from Victor Caratini, he was unable to consistently be relied on and should be in Triple-A getting starter rotations.

This has hurt Contreras’ development, and will continue to limit his performance.

Unless it was an effort issue?

There are a few players on the Cubs I would have never questioned their effort. The first is Javier Baez, then Pedro Strop, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo. A name that would have been in that group until recently was Contreras.

I’m not saying Contreras wasn’t giving his best effort between the chalk lines, but he admittedly didn’t put the work in to be successful.

“I used to get to the ballpark, like I did in 2017, and I’d usually get on the elliptical or bike or stretch or lift,” Contreras told NBC Sports Kelly Crull. “To be honest, I didn’t lift at all [as 2018 went on]. I came out of my routine completely. I didn’t deserve to have a good year last year. That’s what I told myself. I’ve learned from it, I took it as inspiration and now I’m here.”

Of course that’s alarming. Contreras was supposed to be a leader, he was pegged as Joe Maddon’s clean-up hitter. This was a guy that went into 2018 declaring that he wanted to be the best catcher in baseball. Then he didn’t work for it.

Now of course it’s good to see Willson recognizing this, and taking ownership of his 2018 work ethic. And while you have to ask the question, and it’s a fair question, can he change his ways? I believe the answer is yes, and that he will turn things around.

What went wrong

Going into the 2018 season, Contreras had 40/1 odds of winning the NL MVP. Everything we saw of Contreras to that point made, at least Cubs fans, believe he should have had much higher odds. Just look back to his 31 games between July and August of 2017 (he was injured in early August), he slashed an impressive.322/.389/.678 with a 1.067 OPS, 12 HR, 38 hits, and 20 runs scored. Also, if you follow it, he also had 32 ribbies over that time as well.

He wasn’t only an offensive leader, he had earned the respect of the pitching staff as well.

In 2017, Contreras was fourth among catchers in OPS, he also held a .972 OPS against fastballs. In 2018 Contreras’ .730 OPS ranked 12 among catchers.

The biggest reason for the drop had to of been his inability to hit the fastball in 2018. I already noted his .972 OPS against FB’s in 2017, but that tanked to a .682 OPS and a .192 AVG against the same pitch in 2018. A drop like that is usually attributed to slow hands, inability to recognize the pitch, pitchers finding a hole in his swing, or a timing issue. Through hours of video, Contreras and the Cubs found that it was timing.

“Last year I was late on a lot of pitches,” Contreras told reporters. “It was just timing. I was loading late, and I’m putting hard work on it. So far it seems seems like I’m getting on it.”

Hitters fall in and out of tendencies quickly. What is a little unfair is, the good tendencies tend to last only as long as a bad habit shows its face. Once a bad habit comes, and if it’s not recognized quickly, it can cause issues for weeks, months and even full seasons.

The positive is, good timing trumps all when hitting. When your timing is on, you’re still able to hit the ball. When you’re hitting the ball it’s much easier to fine-tune the mechanics of your swing.

What to expect

I have never counted Contreras out. He is far too talented to not be successful. My fear with Willson is how much is too much?

While adjusting his load time is a small change, he’s also adjusting things defensively as well. When a catcher struggles on both sides of the ball, typically defense takes precedence. In Contreras’ case, he’s making subtle changes on both sides, which bodes well.

So, what should we all expect?

Looking at Fangraphs, THE BAT projects a .256/.336/.418 season. ATC suggests a similar.258/.341/.426 campaign. Depth Charts again predicts a .256/.339/.421. Steamer .257/.340/.427, and ZiPS suggests a .255/.339/.415. The only projection system that thinks Contreras will improve upon his 2018 season is Fans (11), which still doesn’t think he can return to his 2017 form (.269/.351/.441).

Personally, I believe Contreras is in the middle of a make or break season. We all heard Theo Epstein say that if guys don’t produce, or prove they aren’t what they believe they are, he will need to make tough decisions on potential transactions. I think Contreras was one of the guys he was speaking to, I also believe he’s one of the guys that listened and took it to heart.

I believe Contreras takes the disappointment of 2018 and had a bounce-back season. He will be one of the biggest catalysts for a better 2019 season.

Willson Contreras prediction – .279/.375/.479 23 HR