Who’s Up Next for the Chicago Cubs

As the NLDS win over the St Louis Cardinals begins to wear off, we look ahead to what is next for this Chicago Cubs team. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets are set to close out their series in a sure to be dramatic game five tomorrow night.

So the question must be asked, which team would you prefer?

Both, LA and New York, feature strong pitching staffs. While Los Angeles’ might have more fanfare, the Mets’ younger arms are equally talented and propose a tough task for any offense. An advantage the Cubs will have going into the NLCS is, rest. The Dodgers will have Cy Young candidate Zack Greinke throwing against the Mets impressive hurler Jacob deGrom. While the NLCS will not start until Saturday, this would most likely mean the Cubs would not face either pitcher until Tuesday’s game three matchup.

To really answer which team you would prefer, as baseball purists usually do, let’s look to the stats. The Cubs were an impressive 7-0 against the Mets this season, completing their first season sweep of more than five games since 1885.

On the flip side, the Cubs ended the regular season with a 3-4 mark against the Dodgers. While not the most impressive mark, the last time the Cubs faced off against LA probable Game 1 starter Jake Arrieta no-hit them.

Regular season records are only part of the story, the other half is how well the players faired against the other’other’s pitching. AM-670 The Score* posted a great article showcasing each player’s individual success, here are some highlights.

Cubs hitters vs. NY pitchers

Mets hitters vs. Cubs pitchers

Collectively the Cubs had a .226/.337/.372 slash line against the Mets, and their pitchers dominated putting up a 7-0 record with a 1.52 ERA with 4 shutouts in 65 innings. The Mets pitchers while impressive, still held a 3.52 ERA and a 1.386 WHIP and their hitters (as expected) posted a .186/.239/.292 slash line.

Cubs hitters vs LA pitchers

LA hitters vs Cubs pitchers

The Cubs and Dodgers pitchers have dominated the season series against each other. The team’s have averaged 4.5 Total runs Per game, and LA’s team ERA of 1.72 edges the Cubs 2.90 in the series. If there is something to hang your hat on, the Cubs out slugged and got on base more than LA did, but the Dodgers seemed to find that timely hit against the Northside club.

On paper one would think the Cubs would fair better against the Mets, and that might be true, but the Cubs didn’t see them with David Wright or Yoenis Cespedes during the regular season. Additionally, the Dodgers two aces, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, will not see action until games two and three (if kept to five days rest). The Cubs would have the luxury of throwing both Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in games one and two of the NLCS.

Would you take your odds of Arrieta facing off against Brett Anderson? I think any reasonable person would tip the odds in the Cubs favor there. Then you get into, Kershaw vs Lester and Greinke vs Hendricks/Hammel, which would more than likely lean in the Dodgers favor (if only on paper).

The Cubs pitchers should also fair better against the Dodgers hitters. Their lineup doesn’t really strike fear into an opposing team, and they could lose second baseman Chase Utley for a couple of games as the MLB scheduled his appealed suspension for Monday, a result of sliding into Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada and breaking his leg. While Utley has a lot of playoff experience, dating back to his days with the Philadelphia Phillies, he has seen very limited time so far in these playoffs and very well could be a non-factor.

Looking at the Mets as a possible opponent, not only would re-spark an almost dead rivalry, but also give the Cubs the chance to repay them for the past. This is a very intriguing match-up — again on paper — that very likely could go in either team’s favor. The Mets elected to pitch Steven Matz in Game 4 of the NLDS, a pitcher who the Cubs have not faced this season, and will throw Jacob deGrom (as mentioned) in Game 5. This would still lineup either Syndergaard or Harvey to start Game 1 of the NLCS against the Cubs.

The Cubs saw Noah in his first MLB start, and while he was tough, the Cubs finally broke out and scored three runs off of him late. Harvey on the other hand baffled the Cubs through 7 innings only allowing 3 hits in the process. The Cubs would eventually win that game, but Harvey was nothing short of brilliant. The Mets have mentioned Harvey will be available out of the pen for Game 5, and it would be nice to see him be counted on for multiple innings of work.

Ultimately it is the belief of myself, Chicago Style Sports, and many other baseball insiders or publications that the Cubs are the best bet to win the World Series. In saying that, it shouldn’t matter what the match-up is. But with the success the Cubs had against the Mets, and the Cubs pitchers ability to halt their bats, New York would be a better match-up for this Cubs team. Plus, we’d have Ron Santo upstairs helping the Cubs beat those Mets.

 

*Source: 670 The Score, By the Numbers – Mets, Dodgers

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