With Yu, We’ve Seen this Before
I have noticed a lot of Chicago Cubs fans flipping their sh%& over the performance of Yu Darvish so far this season. In his first four starts for the Cubs, Yu has a 6.86 ERA, 1.627 WHIP, a 4.62 xFIP, giving up 5.03 walks per nine, and is averaging less than 5 innings per outing. His performance hasn’t given Cubs fans much to be excited about. It also doesn’t help that Jake Arrieta pitched an absolute gem in his last start, throwing 7 innings of one-hit ball.
While I believe that there is cause for concern, but the way a lot of the new age Cubs fans have reacted is very much out of line. I don’t know if it is the fact that there are much more casual watchers that have tuned in more often or if it is a result of our results now the culture in 2018. But there is much more of a demand for immediate results and entire seasons are based on a single start by a lot of Cubs fans in 2018.
This is where I tell you the season is still very young and new. There is a lot of baseball yet to play, and making snap judgments on performance this early in a season does no one any good.
Yu Darvish
Darvish hasn’t started his Cubs career very well. He would be the first to admit that, and when I spoke with someone close to Darvish, he said, “we’re gunna see the best Yu yet!” So far we haven’t. We have seen glimpses of what Yu can be, and we have seen him dominate and we have seen him struggle.
So far in 2018, Yu has thrown 19.2 innings in four starts, an average of around 4 2/3rds per outing. his 9.61 K/9 is the lowest of his career, his strikeout percentage is well below his career norm (22.8% opposed to 29.5%). These are things that I would expect to get better as the season progresses. Early on the conditions have been horrible and for a pitcher like Yu, who throws a lot of different variations on pitches, the feel needs to be there for him to throw certain pitches reliably.
I’m not giving excuses, but just an educated guestimation on reasonings why he hasn’t thrown certain pitches so far this season.
What is more alarming, or at least something I want to watch as the season progresses, is Darvish’s walk rates. He has a 12% BB% and is giving up 5.03 BB/9. Because of that rather high walk rate (both career highs by a rather wide margin) has caused his K/BB% to also fall to a career low (10.9%).
Reason to be optimistic
Baseball has had a pretty consistent history of players under-performing after signing large free agent contracts. Look no further than Jason Heyward and Jon Lester of the same Cubs team.
Heyward signed an eight-year $184 million contract in 2016. He has since posted a slash line of .230/.306/.325 that first season. As for Lester, he struggled through most of his first season in Chicago but eventually regained form. But in his first four starts in 2015, after signing a five-year $155 million contract, he owned a 6.23 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched.
It appears that both Yu and Lester have performed at very similar levels through their first four games in a Cubs uniform.
After these starts, Lester owned a 6.23 ERA and Darvish currently has a 6.86 ERA. Now, I don’t know if Yu will turn things around in a way that Lester did, but I do know he is too good and has too good of stuff to own a 6+ ERA throughout the season.
Already in motion
The Cubs and Yu have already set some things in motion. The first, that gaudy hesitation thing is getting removed.
The key for Darvish is going to be command and feel. With his motion getting calmed down, he will need to command his pitches – especially his fastball – in order to see sustained success. Doing that and we will see his K/9 return to his 11.01 rate, which is best in baseball since the 2012 season.
We are already seeing it, mostly. Yu has pitched very well in each of his starts this season, all besides one inning. He has a pitch go the other way, or he loses mental control, and then things unravel. For a guy that has played most of his baseball in controlled environments in Japan and rather warm conditions in Texas, maybe early season Chicago baseball will just be rough for him.
With continued work, more consistent weather, and some positive momentum, Yu will be just fine.
