Worth a Flier, Admit it… The Cubs Need Pitching

The Chicago Cubs lost Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood to free agency this winter. All three were penciled in as starters in the 2020 rotation, suggesting that the team needed to replenish the staff a bit. Then, instead of finding a free agent to bring in, the Cubs traded Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres!? (Insert Homer Simpson’s voice, “this is going great.”)

The Cubs did receive Zach Davies in return for Darvish, so as we know it, the Cubs rotation has Kyle Hendricks, Alec Mills, and Davies. The team’s official depth chart also lists Adbert Alzolay, Tyson Miller, and Brailyn Marquez as potential 2021 rotation mates.

So, while Jed Hoyer has an eye on tomorrow while pulling some of the resources from this current roster, he still needs to put out a competitive product. The Cubs, who have reduced payroll by around $75 million, will certainly add a couple of arms, and others to round out the roster. I wouldn’t be too excited for a free agent name, as I fully expect them to look towards the bottom of lists when doing so.

There is one arm that is intriguing to me, Corey Kluber.

Kluber has only thrown in eight games over the last two seasons, however, he was one of – if not the most – dominant pitchers in baseball before he started experiencing injuries. From 2014 through 2018, Kluber had a 2.85 ERA, 2.84 FIP, and 2.94 xFIP. He had a 10.19 K/9 while averaging less than two walks per nine innings. He also averaged 32 starts a season, with more than 1,000 more strikeouts than walks over that five-season span. Oh, and he just so happened to win two Cy Young awards during that time.

Then, in early 2019, Kluber was hit with a line drive breaking his arm, and upon his return, he suffered an abdominal injury. In 2019, he was limited to seven games because of this. Kluber was then traded to the Texas Rangers, where he threw only a single inning when he had a muscle issue in his throwing shoulder. The Rangers then declined his 2021 option, making him a free agent.

On January 13th, in Florida, Kluber is expected to have a 25-30 pitch workout in front of probably two-thirds of MLB teams. (The Cubs will send representatives to this workout) It is there where Kluber expects to showcase that he still has some gas left in the tank and that the injures are a thing of the past. While this very well could decide the rest of his professional career, Kluber doesn’t seem to be putting any additional pressure on himself.

“I don’t have a mindset that I need to prove myself to anyone, so to speak,” the 34-year-old said in a phone interview recently. “I just need to show people that I’m healthy. I’m not putting pressure on myself to go out there and do X, Y and Z. It’s just about showing teams I’m progressing through a normal offseason.”

Kluber works with Eric Cressey, a pitching guru who trains many MLB and MiLB pitchers. He is also the Director of Player Health and Performance for the New York Yankees. Cressey points to COVID as a reason behind Kluber missing most of 2020, especially due to not knowing when they would return and not having access to regular resources.

“No one had a lot of access to sports medicine resources or hands-on manual therapy or gyms and stuff,” Cressey said of the shutdown. “Had this been a longer season he could have come back if the Rangers had been in the mix.”

From the words, it would appear that Kluber is a safe bet. But, as we know in sports, especially pitching, there is hardly ever a safe bet anymore.

Because of this, and the general nature of baseball’s finances (whether they are real or appeared) Kluber very well could only see a one-year, “prove it to me” offer. These are the type of deals a team like the Cubs should be drooling over.

The Cubs are just good enough (even still) to make noise in the National League Central. While this isn’t a World Series roster by any account, they can compete as is. Add Kluber to the mix and they look even better on paper, but he could also help them achieve other goals – replenish their minor leagues.

Back in the 2013 season, the Cubs signed free agent pitcher Scott Feldman to a one-year, $6 million deal. While Feldman wasn’t trying to prove he was over some injuries, he was looking to prove that his 2012 season was a fluke (6-11, 5.09 ERA). He did just that. In 91 IP, Feldman put up a 3.46 ERA and a 1.143 WHIP. The Cubs used that to flip Feldman to the Baltimore Orioles (famously) for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.

I don’t want to suggest Kluber would only get a $6 million contract, but taking a one-year flier on him isn’t as big of a gamble as it was on Feldman. He has a much better pedigree, and if he regains his form, he either helps the Cubs compete in 2021 (which Hoyer has admitted they are trying to do) while providing flexibility in potentially moving him at the deadline.

This is exactly the kind of deal the Cubs love jumping on. Looking at past fliers on guys like Dan Haren, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, Clayton Richard, Drew Smyly among others. Guys that the Cubs could bring in relatively inexpensively and either find out how much gas is in the tank, but it doesn’t really hurt the team if they don’t get much from them.

A potential connection here is, The Cubs and the Rangers have shared a little mind space in the past. Hooking up on several trades over the past four or so years, and even sharing Anthony Iapoce. While this might amount to a hill of beans, but these two front offices get along, and there could be shared information between the two organizations. Yes, Kluber threw only a single inning for the Rangers in the regular season, but they have logs upon logs of other pieces of information that could be possibly shared.

Now, I don’t know if the Cubs are interested, but at this point going after Kluber certainly couldn’t hurt. This isn’t going to be an inexpensive contract, that isn’t why Kluber is doing the workout. He is looking for a healthy salary from whoever comes knocking. If the Cubs, possibly having access to information, were to play a long game on him, they could see the price tag drop a bit and allow them to pounce. After all, competing to win a World Series or not, the Cubs rotation looks a lot better like this:

• Kyle Hendricks
• Zach Davies
• Corey Kluber
• Alec Mills
• Adbert Alzolay

…than it does without.

What might it take to get Kluber? I think we could see him earn somewhere in the $12-14 million range. We saw Kyle Schwarber land a better than arbitration deal in Washington, I don’t think it’s farfetched to see a more decorated player get some more.

My fear with Kluber is, a team will absolutely look to offer an option year or even just add a second year. I personally am not opposed to it, but I don’t think the Cubs would entertain a second year on a deal right now. Not only is he going to be 35 in April, but there are injuries and a lack of professional innings over the past two seasons. This had been one of the best pitchers in the game, and I believe there’s some more of that in the tank.

Overall, I believe the way finances are, the slow pace of the offseason (however I feel like it will pick up here very soon), and his health over the past two seasons can allow Kluber to fall into the Cubs lap. I don’t believe a true, championship contender will take a risk on him in 2021, and I don’t think the smaller markets will open a checkbook knowing they will at best have 25% capacity for the first half of a season. He just seems too perfect for the Cubs to not take a flier on right now.