Yu Darvish to the Padres – Hottest Deal Right Now

At the end of 2018, there were many Chicago Cubs fans (by many, I would suggest 80% or more) that would have welcomed a Yu Darvish trade. At the end of the 2019 season, where Darvish went on an incredible run in the second half he began to turn fans around. His incredible 17:1 strikeout to walk ratio was nearly unheard of. Coming into his start on July 12th he had a 4.72 ERA and by the end of the season, he lowered it to a respectable 3.98.

He continued his dominance in 2020, albeit in a shortened 60-game season, where he finished with a 2.01 ERA and a 6.6/1 K to BB ratio. If we look at Yu Darvish’s last 25 starts (dating back to July 12th, 2019) he has a 2.40 ERA, 211 strikeouts in 157 2/3 IP, has given up only 23 free passes, a ridiculous 12.04 K/9, and potentially more importantly, a 2.54 and 2.59 FIP and xFIP, respectfully.

Many MLB executives believed Darvish would be a force in the states, but not only has he finally turned that switch on, but he’s also surpassing what many believed he could do.

This has come with a lot of emotional and mental maturity from Darvish. A change in his outward-facing personality and it translated into a man with a bigger understanding of what it takes to become a dominating Major League pitcher. He went from a pitcher that could give up 8 runs by the third, to a pitcher that if a team scores 3 runs that day it was surprising.

The new, jovial, confident, powerhouse Darvish turned the Cubs fanbase around. They saw why the Cubs essentially decided on him over fan-favorite Jake Arrieta (which those who bet me Darvish would have the better next three years than Arrieta, I accept Zelle or Venmo) and they now put Darvish in the near untouchable category.

Enter the hardships which sports organizations felt in the 2020 season. Not allowing fans at games, only playing 60-games of a 162-game season. Some suggest that owners lost money at near biblical proportions! (Not if you ask Ian Happ, but that’s another topic).

So the Cubs, who should be looking to extend multiple core players this offseason are instead looking to trade salary before baseball’s version of the rapture (Competitive Balance Tax) grabs up all the Ricketts spending cash. This is why you heard possibilities of the Cubs not picking up Anthony Rizzo’s option, why the Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and we’ve heard ad nauseam plans to trade Kris Bryant.

Then finally, after the market started to reveal itself, we started to hear Darvish’s name in trade rumors. In fact, one insider suspected that it would be more likely to see Darvish moved this offseason than Bryant. This brings us to the point of the article, the hottest rumor out there right now is Darvish to the San Diego Padres. Here’s why.

The Padres are the 2015 Cubs. Young, exciting offensive team that needs one or two pieces to push them over the top. One of those pieces is another frontline starting pitcher. Currently, the Padres depth chart shows their rotation as:

• Mike Clevinger
• Dinelson Lamet
• Zach Davies
• Chris Paddock

So just an outsider’s 50,000-foot view, most rotations consist of five starters and the Padres show only four starters. So there’s an elementary need for another arm. Then, Clevinger has been ruled out for the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November. So, the Padres – who expect to compete as the Dodgers will take a minor step backward after winning the 2020 World Series – are in the market for a frontline starting pitcher.

Here’s why it makes sense for the Padres, per Jon Morosi:

"Yu Darvish to the Padres, to me, makes a ton of sense." – @jonmorosi #MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/MzfqpW4qnv

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 23, 2020

• AJ Preller – Executive VP/General Manager with Padres
  • Executive in the Texas Rangers front office when they signed Darvish from Japan
• Padres have the top-level prospects the Cubs covet
  • The Cubs will not move Darvish without a king’s ransom
  • Quick glance, five of their top 10 prospects are pitchers
• Trevor Bauer, per some reports, leans more towards the New York Mets

The pieces are set up for the deal. The Padres understand that their opportunity is now, and they cannot wait for the Dodgers to retool (likely losing Justin Turner, Joc Peterson, Kiki Hernandez, and several other contributors). When you look at all the teams that won in recent years, they have built their roster from within and moved the necessary prospects to supplement the roster to put them over the top. The Padres absolutely need to supplement the roster and making a blockbuster deal for Darvish will accomplish that goal.

Why the Cubs would consider it?

The Cubs are absolutely trying to reduce their payroll for the 2021 season. While they have accomplished some of this (Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr., Tyler Chatwood, etc.) they are still looking to reduce some more before adding smaller pieces to complete a 2021 roster. Their goal, as has been reported, is to have a payroll between $150 and $170 million in the 2021 season.

Currently, the Cubs are sitting around $140 million, which only accounts for about 15 players of a 26-man roster. To add another 11 players, plus mid-season call-ups, the Cubs will likely need to reduce the current payroll another $24 million (currently $141m, assuming an average of $3m per player comes to $33m, adding $33 to $141 is $174m, reducing to $150m would be another $24 million). Moving Darvish’s contract of $22m AAV would accomplish the goal and get the payroll to essentially $152m for the 2021 season.

The Cubs *can* compete in 2021 as is. With the Cincinnati Reds taking a step backward and the Milwaukee Brewers essentially hold pat, and the St Louis Cardinals likely being the readiest team in the NL Central, the Cubs should still be in the playoff picture.

But right now it is less about playoffs in 2021 than it is about World Series chances in 2023. Darvish, while under contract until the 2024 season, will not be a mainstay on the next championship run. The value of keeping Darvish via trading him for necessary parts for that run might just lean towards moving him.

Darvish also offers the best chance of pulling a massive return. Even with his high salary and contract, he provides a giant value in a league with several organizations ready to make that next step towards a championship. The only players on the roster that have the opportunity to provide a foundational change for the next several years are Darvish, Ian Happ, and potentially Willson Contreras. There is more trust that the Cubs and Contreras can work out an extension keeping him in Chicago for the long-term at a price tag that isn’t offensive to the overall payroll.

Similar is the case for Happ. He’s a prime candidate for an early extension, buying out his final arbitration years, giving him financial security, and providing the Cubs salary relief.

With Darvish, the Cubs could see a return of multiple starters that can help maintain a rotation through the 2026 season and beyond.

I still think that this is the talk of a boring offseason. While the Cubs intend on continuing to reduce payroll, I don’t see any major asset being moved before the season starts. Perhaps there is a move after things get rolling, but the closer we get to the start of the season the chances of a Darvish trade goes down with each passing day. I think there is no chance of a Darvish trade once the season actually starts.

Coincidently, I think that guys like Javier Baez, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, and (yes, I’m saying it) Anthony Rizzo get larger once the season begins. The Cubs will be managing the 2021 roster, but also the 2022-2024 roster once the season begins. If the team sees themselves fall out of contention and see any of the aforementioned names get off to a hot start, they could entertain ideas for any of them. I also think this might be a season where we see the Cubs entertain extension talks during the season. This is a change from the way they have operated over the past several seasons.

Ultimately, guys like Baez and Bryant will be at short and third. Darvish will be on the Wrigley mound. All will seem fine, at least for two months in the summer.