Cubs Hot Stove League – What Will Likely Happen

Every trade deadline and every offseason anyone that writes about baseball and the potential trade rumors is often beaten up by readers. This is ok, and I think it is because of the way we all present the information (I’m not complaining or asking for sympathy). We hear something, get tipped off on a player or team, or someone else posts their rumors – so we all follow suit as if it will happen. About 95% of the rumors that are tossed around the internet during the Hot Stove Leagues never come to fruition. The rumors are very often based on some sort of fact, or actual conversation that was had, but completing a trade is a tough business. Then you add five or so other teams into the mix, and it confuses the entire picture.

This is why I wanted to take a moment to address some of the Chicago Cubs trade rumors, and really offer my take on what might happen. I ask you to join in on the fun in the comment section below as well.

Sonny Gray

I already wrote about how the Cubs should stay away from Sonny Gray, and I stand by that. Thing is, I don’t think the Cubs are a serious player for his services. Billy Beane will want young players who haven’t played in the majors in return for Gray. The Cubs, while having some very intriguing pitchers in their minors, don’t have the headliners to complete this deal unless it was a five for one type of play. Theo Epstein is too smart to get involved in a deal like that.

There is always the Kyle Schwarber or Ian Happ idea, and I think every team in baseball would take a flier on either, but again I do not think Beane nor Theo would entertain a swap including just those players.

I expect Gray to be dealt, and he very well could end up on the Milwaukee Brewers (which reminds me of the 2008 season in which the Brew Crew acquired CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians. They promptly ran him into the ground, which I wouldn’t think would be the case in 2017 if they acquired Gray. I actually think Craig Counsell is better equipped to manage a staff, and actually doesn’t promote one guy over another guy.

In any event, to answer the three years long Sonny Gray question – no, he will not be a Chicago Cub.

Chris Archer

Here is another pitcher that has long links to the Cubs, which started almost immediately after the Cubs sent him to Tampa.

Archer is a two time All Star, and currently the staff ace for the Rays. Already having found success in the big leagues, along with seeing some time pitching in postseason play, Archer is a logical fit on the Northside. He would add a pure strikeout pitcher, who can consistently throw 200 plus innings. Archer would look great between the two lefties (Jon Lester and Jose Quintana) in 2018 and 2019.

The only issue here is, he isn’t available. The Rays are the current leader in the Wild Card. Plus they are only three games back from the Boston Red Sox for the AL East lead. The Rays will not trade their ace while in a playoff run, and you can forget about the thought that they would drop out of contention by the July 31st trade deadline.

In fact, the Rays are closer to taking over the East (3 games) than dropping out of a Wild Card spot (4 games). Adding to it, Tampa is now talking about adding players to the mix instead of trading away, which should put to bed any thought of an Archer trade.

So again, no, Archer will not be a Chicago Cub.

Marcus Stroman

Here is another guy I recently wrote about, and while I believe there is some smoke here, still, the Stroman to the Cubs bit falls apart. Stroman is a solid pitcher, who again has seen great success early on in his career. The dude has a flipping 4.0 WAR already this season and finds himself 14th among all players and fourth among pitchers.

But all of that success comes with a HUGE return. We already covered how the Blue Jays were asking for a giant return, including players off of the Cubs 25-man roster, and once the talks really start heating up, the price is certainly going to scare the Cubs away from Marcus.

Again, phenomenal talent, and would be the perfect piece, but Marcus Stroman will not be a Cub.

Justin Verlander

Again, we covered Justin Verlander and got beat up for the mere suggestion. This is the type of guy I feel would fit on the Northside. His knowledge of the game, his presence on the mound, his postseason experience, all of it. I feel that if you add Justin to an NL team, especially a contender, at this point in his career he would excel.

What’s better is, Verlander has historically been a better second half pitcher than the first half. His ERA is lower, has a better WHIP, strikes out more batters per 9 innings. Plus he owns special stats verse the National League. 28 and 5 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, with 274 strikeouts in 40 games.

The thing is, Detroit has been wishy washy on dealing any of their players. There was that report that the Tigers wouldn’t cover any of Justin’s salary and still require a top end prospect in return and it scared teams off.

While I think Verlander is the perfect fit on the Northside, but I don’t think the two teams can come to an agreement. They could revisit conversations after the season, and that could very well be a possibility.

Michael Fulmer

Here is another guy that would be perfect. He is in his second year as a pro and is straight dominating hitters. A career 3.06 ERA with a 1.097 WHIP – he is legit. One also has to like his FIP (3.22) BABIP (.267) and that he’s doing this in the American League.

The only negative I might see is he hasn’t pitched more than 159 innings in a season. He will in 2017, barring injury, and it will be interesting to see how his arm rebounds.

Regardless, he appears to be worth the handsome load the Tigers want for him. Per Bob Nightengale, the Tigers, “gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks.”

The Tigers have no reason whatsoever to trade Fulmer. So why would they settle for anything less than a huge haul? The Cubs have a ton of roster flexibility at the big league level. But would they pull the trigger on a deal including Schwarber, or Happ, or Baez?

I just don’t see a deal happening between the Cubs and Detroit unless it is for Alex Avila their catcher. Fulmer will not be a Cub in 2017.

Brad Hand

Betcha didn’t expect to see his name on here, did ya? Well, it is, and it is because the Cubs had made a call earlier in the season. We do not know what or who the San Diego Padres asked for in return for their All Star pitcher, but it is rumored that they asked the LA Dodgers for their top prospect, Alex Verdugo.

Don’t get too excited, Alex is the 50th ranked prospect in baseball, and the Cubs could make a deal like this happen with Jeimer Candelario and a Double-A or lower prospect.

He could be an expensive get, but the Cubs but could add some left handed flexibility to the bullpen. Depending on what they end up doing with John Lackey when he returns, you would think Mike Montgomery would return to the bullpen. Pairing Monty, Brian Duensing and Hand up would give the Cubs a very formidable left handed pen.

He is the type of guy Theo Epstein likes to go after, and outside of an early July report, the Cubs have been relatively quiet in regards to him. This could actually come to fruition.

Alex Avila

When the Miguel Montero news broke, the Cubs were sniffing around the Detroit Tigers for Verlander. The timing worked out and the team was able to begin scouting Alex Avila as well. Alex is having a renaissance type of season, slashing .297/.421/.526. He is currently tied with Willson Contreras with a 2.3 WAR, which is good for second among all catchers.

He is the veteran catcher the Cubs need behind the plate. I know the Cubs have publicly said they are ok going to Victor Caratini and Contreras, but Caratini has only one full major league game under his belt as a catcher. Remember how skittish Jake Arrieta and John Lackey were pitching to Contreras last season? It would be a recipe for disaster if the Cubs went into the playoffs with those two catchers. Assuming they make it that is.

Still, I’m not 100% sold that the Cubs and Tigers will work anything out. The Tigers have much bigger fish to fry, and the least of their worries is dealing their backstop. He is exactly what the Cubs desire and I can see a deal for him coming after the trade deadline.

What I think Could Happen

Sure this is speculation, but it is educated. I have studied this organization and how it works. I have grown to learn the type of guys it covets. I think I have a sense of how Theo operates (at least as much as the next guy).

Who knew the Cubs and White Sox were talking about a deal? It’s ok, I’ll wait for you to come forward…

Ah, no one, that’s right, no one knew. Rick Hahn, the White Sox GM, was hiding in Marlins Stadium during the All Star festivities while talking to Theo. Hardly a person in either organization knew, and absolutely no media knew this was happening until it happened. If the Cubs landed someone like Daniel Coulombe or Parker Bridwell for a couple prospects, would it surprise anyone? Young guys, beginning to find their way. They are almost exactly the type of guys Theo likes to target.

I would be completely surprised if either of those two are traded for, but if the Cubs would like to add another arm before the deadline. If they don’t acquire a starter, this is the most likely outcome, they will certainly add someone in the offseason. I would expect it would be a veteran pitcher that has playoff experience on a two year or so deal. Guys like Clay Buchholz or Ian Kennedy or Francisco Liriano types. Or even a couple guys that are considered that second tier of pitchers available, guys who command a longer deal. Guys like Alex Cobb or Yu Darvish. Or even a guy like Tyson Ross, a guy who the Cubs coveted for a long time and is coming off of an injury plagued season in Texas.

The Cubs, right now would have a projected rotation of:

Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
Kyle Hendricks
Mike Montgomery
Eddie Butler

Does that strike fear into any team? Adding a guy like Darvish or Cobb or even being able to retain Arrieta would be gigantic. And absolutely necessary.

But this is the part where you add your thoughts. Are there any trades out there that you foresee and think will happen? Who will the Cubs trade? I’d like your input in the comment section down below.