Interesting Cubs Free Agent Options For 2016
As team officials have had a chance to meet with player agents as well as other team representatives in hopes of building a championship caliber team in 2016. The Cubs officials are said to be very aggressive this offseason, especially in their pursuit of top end pitching. The Cubs do have a couple of huge holes to fill, and there are some options that the Cubs should — and probably will — consider.
Cubs free agents
The Cubs lost their entire centerfield to free agency, and while the team offered Dexter Fowler a qualifying offer (a one year deal of $15.8 M), expectedly he rejected that deal to find more security in a long term contract. The Cubs also lost midseason addition, Austin Jackson to free agency, leaving the team with only four outfielders, none of which has the ability to play centerfield everyday.
What is possibly more worrisome is the Cubs also lost their 2015 lead-off hitter in Fowler. Fowler’s .346 OBP and .411 Slugging were welcome additions to this Cubs lineup. While Fowler reached base at a career low clip, his increased power, speed, and his general ability to work counts helped set the table, and tone for the Cubs offense.
There are no questions that the Cubs would love to have Dexter back in the fold, they are expected to focus their money on the rotation, and signing a centerfielder to a long term contract would block the eventual rise of star prospect Albert Almora.
So what are the Cubs free agent options?
Centerfield
The best options in free agency are either the Cubs Fowler, or Denard Span. The Cubs could also look towards a couple of other outfielders — Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes in particular — that have spent a good deal of time in centerfield. While neither really fit the bill as lead off hitters, the Cubs would still need to find that table setter for 2016, or go with an unorthodox approach (like the St Louis Cardinals batting Matt Carpenter first).
The full solution looks to be in either Fowler or Span, and we can make an argument for either option.
Dexter Fowler could come back in, and although he is expected to earn in the neighborhood of $17 M a season for around four years, he could be moved to LF once Almora is ready to make the jump to the big leagues. This would allow the team to put Almora in center, while hitting him lower in the lineup allowing him to take the expected bumps and bruises while playing his typical stellar defense in center.
The attraction to Denard Span is he could most likely accept a shorter deal, even though he will likely earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $12 M a season. Where Span is attractive, outside of his ability to really go get balls in center, is he was not offered a qualifying offer by the Washington Nationals, meaning he will not cost the Cubs a draft pick if they were to sign him (of course Fowler wouldn’t either since he was the Cubs free agent).
Another option, who isn’t talked about much (mostly since he will earn a lot more then he is worth, and thus far the team has not been linked to him) is Cespedes. He was not offered a qualifying offer by the Mets (as he was a midseason acquisition), and could play centerfield. While you’d rather Yoenis play either corner outfield spot, Wrigley Field’s centerfield plays small and he could certainly handle it. What the Cubs might not be able to handle is his expected raise from $3.8 M to $18-22 M that he will fetch on the market, most of which is based on his incredible play down the stretch for the Mets.
Another possibility, and more realistic, would be the Cubs looking towards the ex-Cardinal and ex-Brave, Jason Heyward. I covered this in more detail here, but an acquisition of Heyward would be for him to play RF –where he is one of the best in the league — and not CF. If the Cubs were to look this route, they would more than likely trade Jorge Soler for pitching and a centerfielder. This is also the likely scenario with the Kansas City Royals’ LF Alex Gordon, which was discussed in great detail here.
The Cubs could also take the trade route to fill their hole in the outfield. Multiple reports suggest that the Cubs could look out east for either the New York Yankees Brett Gardner or the Boston Red Sox for Jackie Bradley Jr.
Outfield depth
The Cubs have a problem with their defensive depth in the outfield. While of course they have a huge hole in CF, masher Kyle Schwarber’s defensive ability was exposed in the NLCS, and Jorge Soler’s defense was much poorer than advertised. The team needs to find those defensive studs that could come in late in games, spell the regulars, or fill in when Schwarber is either playing catcher or is the team’s DH in inter-league games.
The biggest name that should be on that list is Ben Zobrist.
The Cubs have reportedly been interested in him since the beginning of last season, and while in Tampa was manager Joe Maddon’s security blanket. Zobrist is a jack-of-all-trades. He can play almost anywhere on the field, and while he might be officially an utility player, he really is a starter as he will be in the lineup everyday, just at different positions. Ben will be looking for a huge raise from his sub $3 M salary, and that could be a risk for a 34 year old player, but Zobrist does so much for the teams he plays for, it is like signing two or three players when you acquire him.
Even more attractive, Ben isn’t tied to any additional compensation Ashe wasn’t offered a qualifying offer. This might finally be the time that the Cubs-Zobrist union could happen.
Starting pitching
Here’s the sexy category. This is where the Cubs are expected to make the biggest splash this offseason.
There are tons of really good starting pitchers available this offseason, and the Cubs have not been quiet about their need and want to get stronger at this position. With the likes of David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, and Zack Greinke available, this is the perfect time for any team looking for an upgrade to go all-in on a free agent pitcher.
The Cubs have been strongly linked to Price, since perhaps the signing of Joe Maddon last October. While Price has been equally interested in the Cubs, do not expect a discount because he “likes” Joe, or “likes” what the team is doing here. That isn’t how baseball free agency works, as not only does David (or any player) have such a short window to earn money, they also have responsibilities to their fellow players to fetch the best deals which in turn allows others greater ability to earn.
David will see a contract north of $200 M this offseason. There are plenty of suitors that will be willing to give him that much money. The Cubs will need to decide if signing him for that amount, or if signing several players for that amount gives them the best ability to make it back to the playoffs year after year. My guess is, the Cubs will offer Price a deal, on their terms, selling the ability for him to be here when the Cubs finally win a World Series. If he likes it, he will be a Cub, if someone else offers him more money, he will not.
If they sign Price, expect the team to actively trade to acquire another, younger, starter as well as trade for their centerfield/lead off hole.
More likely, and something that fits the Cubs needs more, if they go after one or two of the other starters on the market — not named Zack Greinke — spending a little more, but being able to deepen the rotation behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Pitchers like Cueto, Zimmermann, or Jeff Samardzija really fit the bill here. They could grab Cueto for $120 M and Jeff for $75 M and be in a similar spot as if they signed Price, both salary-wise and in terms of quality of the rotation.
This offseason is perhaps the most important one in the Cubs title hopes in the next three to five years. With a strong nucleus of players already here, a sprinkle or a huge addition could make the team World Series favorites for a very long time.
