There’s Something Brewing, Probabilities Falling

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There are some fans that came out of the Milwaukee Brewers series feeling ok. They claimed that the Cubs still led the division (albeit by two games) and played their way to enjoy a bit of comfort. Most other fans began to freak out, and it might be deservedly so. 

The scary part about it is, the Cubs have another four games against the Brewers and seven against the second place St Louis Cardinals. With a mere two game lead on the Cards and a 2.5 game lead on the Brewers – things are a little too close for comfort.

The morning of September 8th the Cubs had the chance to put the Brewers away. With a five game lead just taking two of the games would severely damage Milwaukee’s chances. In fact, the Brewers odds of earning a playoff berth was a lowly 10.1%. The Cardinals had a similar outlook, looking at a 19.8% chance Friday morning (Bleacher Report).

The Cubs were swept by the Brewers, and the Cubs saw their 95% probability to win the Central drop to just 78.1% (Fangraphs).

Now the Cubs have perhaps their biggest thorn of all time coming to town – the New York Mets. I can almost hear Ron Santo belly moaning about the Mets, and wouldn’t it make sense if they make things even more difficult for the Cubs?

Perhaps the best thing going for the Cubs is that the Brewers and Cardinals end the season playing each other. If they beat themselves up, maybe, just maybe the Cubs fall into the playoffs.