Yup, Let’s Talk About It
I, like many others, didn’t want to broach the topic of Kyle Hendricks being a possible Cy Young candidate – especially not frontrunner. Early on there was Clayton Kershaw, then as things progressed Madison Bumgarner jumped way out ahead. Certainly Hendricks’ production was good, but not Cy Young good, right?
Well, here we are. Game 141 and Hendricks is still in the conversation, and maybe, just possibly, he might, just could be… a favorite.
Well, not so fast. At least not according to ESPN and their “Cy Young Predictor.” The top billing is currently held by Hendricks teammate, Jake Arrieta, and also trailing another teammate in Jon Lester.
The Cy Young Predictor tool uses a simple formula of: (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB ~ in which VB is a 12-point bonus for leading your team to the divisional championship. Using the formula, assuming the Cubs will win the division, and that Kyle has a reasonable continuation to his current season, that gives Kyle around 172 points in the prediction tool. Arrieta won the award in 2015 with 224.9 points, but we could all agree that it was an especially abnormal season for Jake.
Of course this gives Kyle a huge handicap going into the final month of the season, and could be insurmountable. Well… at least according to ESPN.
With ESPN currently favoring Jake in their predictor tool, it does call into question some of its viability- right? I mean we (Cubs fans) see Jake every day, and there aren’t a ton of us out there that are subscribing to the back-to-back Jake Arrieta Cy Young winner campaign. This is, the reason he is rated so high is because this tool still weighs heavily on record, and not actual contribution.
Jake gets 18 more points in this equation for his three additional wins, while Kyle is penalized 4-points for his two additional losses. That’s a 14-point swing into Jake’s favor on record alone – something most have determined irrelevant in today’s game.
Another gem turned in by Cyle Hendricks @kylehendricks28 last night. Hoping the BWAA takes notice! #Ace #LetsGo #NVRQT
— Jon Lester (@JLester34) August 31, 2016
What the tool doesn’t weigh heavily on is the same stat which won Jake the award last season, runs allowed. In the two instances runs come into play in the prediction tool, they are used to negate some of the innings or in shutouts. Using this same tool in 2015, Arrieta trailed behind then Los Angeles Dodgers Zack Greinke, even as Jake was in the middle of shutting down teams at a record pace. Why bring this up? Well Hendricks hasn’t been on a Jake Arrieta 2015 pace, but he has put together a 1.07 ERA month in July and followed that up with a 1.53 ERA in August. Five times over that stretch he hasn’t given up a run, and he only gave up more than five hits three times.
The major knock on Hendricks has been the fact that Joe Maddon hasn’t trusted him to finish off games, until recently. In his 25 games started in 2016, he has only pitched into the seventh inning in 10 of those games. This is a real concern as if Joe cannot entrust Kyle to finish off games, how does that speak to Cy Young voters?
The real deciding factor could come down to some of the advanced stats. While Kyle’s ERA is 2.09 thus far in 2016, which leads the league, he is currently posting a 3.33 FIP (8th in the NL) and a 3.68 xFIP (7th in the NL). Kyle also adds a 3.4 WAR, good for seventh in the NL, which is tied with teammate Jake Arrieta.
Looking further, Hendricks is first in ERA- (basically a direct correlation between his league leading ERA), second in WHIP, third in average against, and fifth in BABIP. All of these metrics prove what we have seen with our eyes – Kyle Hendricks has been good.
Then we take a look at his SIERA. SIERA attempts to explain if a pitcher is better than, worse than, or about the same as his ERA suggests. Similarly to FIP and xFIP, SIERA is here to tell a fan why a pitcher was as good (or bad) as they were. Interestingly, SIERA, unlike FIP and xFIP, but doesn’t ignore balls in play.
Well Hendricks is 14th in the league with a 3.79 SIERA, suggesting that while he has been very good in 2016, perhaps he has been pitching above his talent level.
Here’s the thing, while all of the stats and metrics, and graphs, and everything else can tell you why what you see is good – sometimes you just need to be able to see it with your own eyes to know that yes, in fact it is good. If we can watch Kyle Hendricks go out there game-after-game and shut down opposing offenses, especially those good ones, when do we just say he’s damn good and stop relying on metrics to tell us that?
I feel like Hendricks is a guy that the stats don’t take too kindly to. While he may finish with 180 strikeouts, he isn’t a guy that blows by hitters. He lets guys hit the ball. He will give up some occasional hits. He will rely on a strong defense to help keep his team in ballgames. These aren’t traits that bode well in those metrics as they tend to figure he’s been lucky.
The National League is filled with guys that are having pretty good seasons. Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto to name a few. But who of that group is truly jumping out as a real Cy Young favorite? You could have a personal fandom to sway your thinking one way or another, but no one is having a season that makes you stop everything you’re doing to watch them pitch on any given night.
But oddly enough, Kyle Hendricks does.
People make sure to watch the professor pitcher. His mastery of the zone, ability to prey on aggressiveness, and the newly acquired confidence is something that is almost can’t miss television right now.
Does any of this translate to votes? I don’t know. But I’m certainly present for each one of his classes.
