2020 is a Wrap, Three Targets for 2021 That WILL Put the Cubs Over the Top

The MLB Playoffs will continue on without a team from Chicago or an NL Central team. If you were to ask anyone in mid-August if this were to be the case, you’d get a resounding NO. The Cubs had jumped out to a huge lead in the division, the White Sox were playing great baseball, and as you continued to move the calendar forward the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals looked to be formidable playoff teams. Heck, the last week of the 2020 season saw the Milwaukee Brewers sneak into postseason play as well.

For the Cubs, this might have been the last time we see this core together. So while it was disappointing to see an early exit from the playoffs, it is even more disappointing that the core may separate this offseason.

Before I jump into brass tax, I have to acknowledge what they’ve done over the last six years. It seems that most of the more vocal fans are quick to point out the shortcomings, there should be someone speaking to the accomplishments these guys had together.

These guys should be thanked for the success we’ve seen the past six years, starting from Theo Epstein on down. We’ve seen baseball’s top prospect come to the league and take it by storm. We’ve seen a cancer survivor come to Chicago and become a leader of men. We’ve seen a throw-away prospect become baseball’s top offensive catcher. We’ve seen players come together and provide Cubs fans with the most successful run in more than 100 years.

Then, in 2020, they came to work with a worldwide pandemic hanging over their heads. They were uncertain on how they would remain safe and how they could keep their families safe. As players invited little ones into their family, new challenges arose and new fears. These guys came together, were the only team in baseball to not have a COVID case among their players, and competed under all these conditions – and they won the NL Central crown again.

This core is responsible for:

• 2015 NLCS
• 2016 World Series Championship
• 2017 NLCS
• 2018 WC Game
• 2020 NL WC Series

Chicago hadn’t seen a World Series since 1945 and hadn’t seen a championship since 1908, but fans expected several championships from this core. While it is fine to have high expectations, you have to understand just how hard it is to win once, let alone multiple. One would think a fanbase that had gone 108 years between championships would be the first to understand this. Outside how hard it is to win consistently in baseball, it seems that many fans weren’t going to allow COVID to be an excuse in 2020. But when most of baseball’s star players underperformed, these fans weren’t allowing for excuses. Here are a couple of examples from throughout the league:

• Nolan Arenado: .253/.303/.434 .737 OPS 76 wRC+
  • Career: .293/.349/.541 .890 OPS 118 wRC+
• Jose Altuve: .219/.286/.344 .630 OPS 77 wRC+
  • Career: .311/.361/.458 .819 OPS 125 wRC+
• JD Martinez: .213/.291/.389 .680 OPS 77 wRC+
  • Career: .290/.354/.530 .884 OPS 134 wRC+
• Joey Gallo: .181/.301/.378 .679 OPS 77 wRC+
  • Career: .208/.327/.499 .826 110 wRC+
• Francisco Lindor: .258/.335/.415 .750 OPS 100 wRC+
  • Career: .285/.346/.488 .834 OPS 118 wRC+
• Christian Yelich: .205/.356/.430 .786 OPS 112 wRC+
  • Career: .296/.381/.488 .869 OPS 135 wRC+
• Cody Bellinger: .239/.333/.455 .788 OPS 114 wRC+
  • Career: .273/.364/.547 .911 OPS 137 wRC+

When you see the last two NL MVP’s finish the 2020 season with a combined OPS 206 lower than their career numbers – you have to know something around baseball wasn’t right. What wasn’t right was COVID and this weird season. Players may not offer it as an excuse (they may agree if it is brought up) but this season played a very weird factor in their results. To start up like normal, then shut it down for three months before coming back and participating in a weird shortened sprint of a season. Not to mention an extremely ugly, public negotiation with the owners over their compensation.

This season had disaster written all over it from the start, so the fact that we were able to enjoy baseball at all shouldn’t go unnoticed.

But there were a bunch of fans that seemingly believe the Cubs 2020 numbers are a clear indication of their abilities. Which, I mean, come on… I don’t know how you could have watched these guys play at any point in the past six years and believe the 2020 numbers are a reflection of their careers.

Here are the differences between Cubs 2020 numbers and their career numbers.

Of these five, only Willson Contreras posted a higher number in any of these categories. If you believe these numbers are a fair representation of these players’ careers – I’ve got nothing for you here.

What you can fault them for is a four-year trend of not hitting with bases occupied.

Now I am a giant believer in a simple rule, there is no such thing as a “clutch” player. I believe there are good hitters, and I believe good hitters will hit well in any condition over an extended period of time. If you take any single player and only magnify a single condition in a single year, you can see results that vary. But if you look at that same condition over a much larger sample size, you will notice the results are more aligned with that player’s career averages.

For example, Kris Bryant has had extremely strong seasons with RISP and Anthony Rizzo has had some mediocre seasons when hitting with RISP. The narratives don’t hold up throughout time, however, and overreaction to some below-average individual performances is just that, an overreaction.

But as a team, the inability to drive in runs has been a reoccurrence. Outside the 2019 season, and the first half of 2018, the Cubs have had a rough time as a team with RISP.

It is interesting, the Cubs OBP is above league average in each of these seasons, meaning their guys are getting on base and moving the train. The 2019 season suggests they were exceptional at hitting for extra bases in these situations. While the team’s batting average in these situations is around league average (even above in some cases), when they are striking out in around 22% of their plate appearances that doesn’t help move runners up or bring in runners on fielder’s choice chances.

This is where I come to the suggestion that the Cubs absolutely NEED these two players in free agency. Tommy La Stella and Michael Brantley.

Yes, La Stella has been there, done that, I get it. I also don’t love how a lot of fans suggest Cubbie retreads as potential options in free agency. But, those suggestions are usually asking if the Cubs should bring back a guy that’s career is most certainly nearing an end and not really able to contribute.

La Stella can contribute.

This is a guy that they can plug into second, and while he won’t impress many with his defensive skills, he’s adequate enough to be able to play and not embarrass himself or the coaching staff. But I don’t suggest him for his defense, even though the Cubs could use consistency at second, I suggest him for his ability to bat a baseball.

In 1,496 career plate appearances, La Stella has struck only 159 times. That’s essentially 69 Ks per full season. While I don’t expect La Stella to come into a Cubs lineup and have 150 RBIs in 2021, I do expect him to be able to put balls in play, something that has been lacking out of this Cubs offense. Last season, just after the Washington Nationals came to Chicago and essentially embarrassed the Cubs, I wrote how the club would have to find their mindset with runners on. I don’t believe you ditch launch angle theories, but I do think having multiple guys that bat balls in those spots help the lineup mesh. Don’t give up on guys like Bryant or Baez, they are critical to the success of a lineup, but with more guys that can put a ball in play will help round out the offense that much more.

This is the same reason I suggest going hard after Michael Brantley. This is an All-Star caliber player that has done it on the biggest stage. Over the course of his career, he has struck out in 10% of his PA. In the playoffs, when he’s facing relief pitchers called in to specifically get him out, he’s struck out in only 16% of his PA.

But here is my favorite stat line from Brantley. With RISP, he slashes .319/.391/.461 .851 OPS. He has walked 156 times and struck out 124. This means, not only does he walk more often than he strikes out, in his 1,340 PA with RISP, his AVG is 22 points higher, his OBP is 37 points higher, and his OPS is 57 points higher in these situations than it is in normal conditions.

While I would love to see La Stella come back, the only acceptable reason for Brantley to not be a Cub in 2021 is if he re-signs in Houston.

The last option is Kevin Gausman. The Cubs have attempted to trade for Gausman multiple times over the past several seasons, and now that he is a free agent I expect them to go after him pretty hard. Not only do the Cubs have the need (Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana, and possibly Jon Lester will be leaving this offseason) but his increased ability to strike hitters out is very impressive.

In 2020, he struck out 20 more batters than innings pitched (79 Ks in 59 IP) and in the past two seasons, he’s been over 10 SO/9. His 2020 numbers put him in the same range as Yu Darvish, who’s 11.1 SO/9 is the best in baseball history. Gausman has an above AVG fastball, but his strikeout pitch is a deadly circle-change. He creates 10-MPH difference between his FB and change and over the past couple years he’s become even more efficient with the pitch.

The icing on the Gausman cake is, this is a guy that doesn’t have a ton of innings on his arm and won’t come at a giant cost. He pencils in as a third starter or later and should mix in fine with returning starters Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Throw in Alec Mills, and potentially Adbert Alzolay – who the Cubs are incredibly high on after he added that incredible slider – and the rotation will be formidable in 2021.