Future of the Cubs Core

There are many of you that want to hear someone in the media or writing a blog to absolutely ripping the players apart. The first thing I will tell you is, you have no idea what they have gone through in the 2020 season and if you can’t understand that this is the most successful era of this franchise’s last 100 years – it simply doesn’t matter what we say. The facts of the matter are this, Theo Epstein set out to create an organization that continuously competed and played October baseball. The idea around that is if you compete consistently, you’re more likely to win a World Series as opposed to loading up for one or two seasons.

Mission accomplished.

The Cubs have made the playoffs five times in the last six years. They made it to the NLCS in three consecutive seasons and won a World Series. While yes, many people had thoughts of the Cubs winning multiple or at least making another World Series during this time, but you cannot put your unfair expectations on this group. While it is fine to have high expectations, you have to dilute those thoughts when you understand just how hard it is to win in Major League Baseball.

When listening to Theo Epstein discuss the future of this Cubs roster, it sounds like there will be some changes. Change is necessary for all aspects of life. Whatever change that is made isn’t a reflection of any one individual player. It doesn’t mean that the Cubs have given up on any specific player. If and when a trade is made, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the player didn’t want to be in Chicago. I can confirm to you, all the core players WANT to remain a Cub for the rest of their careers.

“No doubt I could never see myself playing anywhere else, at least by my choice,” Anthony Rizzo said. “Obviously I can’t control what happens, but to be able to play here for basically my whole career would be pretty special. You look at the guys who have done that, especially with this franchise … all the guys that have played here before us. It’d be cool to end my career here.”

Per Paul Sullivan, Chicago Tribune

Rizzo has been very vocal about wanting to play the rest of his career in Chicago, the only question is, how much would he actually get verse what he expects? Rizzo has mentioned that he is eying big-money deals around baseball and would like to partake in one of those monster contracts. He understands that the deal he signed, while undervalued, was a good decision for him at the time. But he suggests he is ready to cash in on a bigger deal.

“What’s great is seeing everyone signing these big deals,” Rizzo said. “In a couple years hopefully I’ll be in position to cash in on some bigger earnings. But as of right now I signed a great deal that has me financially set.”

Rizzo to Sullivan

These are the facts of baseball. There is a ton of money in this game and the unfortunate part is players will always get paid for what they’ve done and not what they’re going to do. This is the economics of the sport. With players coming up through an arbitration process that is built to help teams control the costs of their younger players, eventually those players will seek fair market value for their services.

From Rizzo’s comments last season, from his agent’s comments this past offseason, it sounds as if Rizzo is looking to cash in on his production over the past eight seasons (disregarding the 2020 campaign) when he becomes a free agent in 2021. Why shouldn’t he? His .277/.376/.496 .872 OPS 132 OPS+ 33.9 bWAR, and over that time has been worth $232.3 million to the Cubs but was paid $37.5 million over that same period.

Another player, which the extension decision is even more cloudy, is Javier Baez.

Baez has been a strangely odd player to put a value on over the past five seasons. In 2016, he didn’t have a real position and was used as a super-utility guy. He found his way to 450 plate appearances, but offensively he was a below league average hitter, posting a 94 OPS+ and a 94 wRC+. He found his way to become the everyday second baseman in 2017, but was still a below-average hitter, posting a 98 wRC+ and .796 OPS.

It wasn’t until 2018 that he posted his first real value season offensively, finishing with a 131 wRC+ and 129 OPS+. He was second in the National League in MVP voting this season. He also earned his first All Star nod.

Baez has recently suggested that he wants to be a Chicago Cub for the rest of his career.

“I hope I never leave this city in my whole career, but anything can happen,” Báez said after the team’s season-ending Game 2 loss on Friday. “Hopefully I stay here my whole career … I love the fans, the dedication that they got for this team, and the other teams in the other sports for Chicago. We’ll see what happens and hopefully I’ll stay here.”

Fansided

But Baez isn’t as easy. Many believe that he is in line for a large salary boost. Having had several conversations with the Cubs front office this past offseason, and no deal reached, it seems that the two sides aren’t near the financial framework either require to get a deal done – or suggest they are close. Baez himself mentioned that he is in no hurry to complete a deal, which is typically what happens when the player (or his agent) suggests a value much higher than what is being offered.

When we look at Baez’s value since the 2016 season, it varies wildly, and there isn’t much to work on.

Considering no player gets what they’re actually worth (Mike Trout is *worth* $58 million a season but *gets* $35.5 million) how to you accurately pay Baez? If you are suggesting he’s worth more than $20 million a season, you’re banking on the idea that he has yet to perform at his highest level. If you suggest less, then you believe he is what he has shown you, on average, across the past five seasons.

The case myself, and any other writers, get beaten up for is surrounding Kris Bryant. Now, I think I provided a rather good profile on what he should look for in the next deal in this article. But, players are paid for what they did more often than what they will do. Even in the arbitration process, players get increases based on what they had done and not what someone projects them to do.

“Only thing that matters is what comes out of my mouth,” Kris Bryant told an assembled media group in Spring Training. “I’ve always been open to an extension. Of course, I want to stay here, but I don’t hold those cards.”

Kris Bryant’s press conference before 2020 Spring Training

We’ve discussed ad nauseam the false report about Bryant turning down a contract north of $200 million. So please, let’s stop with that narrative. Bryant himself has said he would love to see that extension, which suggests that something in that ballpark would be welcomed. But, the Cubs haven’t offered it. Bryant and his agent Scott Boras have knocked on the Cubs door, but thus far the Cubs haven’t been home.

I will stand by the statement that Bryant is the best player of the lot. He has also proclaimed, for years, he wants to play in Chicago for the rest of his career. I have spoken with people close to Bryant and they also suggested to me that he wants to be a Cub for life. Now, the economics of the game might not make that a possibility, but many fans have a gross misinterpretation of what it is that he is looking for.

Bryant will turn 30 when he is a free agent. If he waits till then, he won’t get a 10-year deal. I’d suggest that even now he is looking at a six to eight-year extension. In his six-year career, he has played in less than 65% of the games twice, 2018 and the 2020 season. Both of those years he had injuries that stunted his overall production. This should be undisputed among any fan that has paid attention. From my social media feeds, that hasn’t always been the case.

Regardless, here is Bryant’s production set against his value.

If we remove the 2020 season (which I would believe most in the industry would do) Bryant is *worth* $44.5 million a season. Again, keep in mind, no player gets what he is “worth”. This is $18.7 million more per season than the second most valuable Cub (Rizzo, $25.1 million) has been to the Cubs over this period. If we include the 2020 season, his value per season is around $37 million.

If we just use the high water mark from all three of these players, the Cubs would need to find around $98.8 million per season. If I were a betting man, Rizzo will find a four-year deal with an AAV around $22 million, Baez will find something around an eight-year deal with an AAV of around $20 million, and Bryant will find a deal around six-years and an AAV around $23 million. This would be $67 million for the trio.

Looking into the Cub’s future, it is very likely that one, or more, of these guys, is not with the team past the 2021 season. After listening to Theo Epstein Monday afternoon, I would believe one of these players will be gone this offseason.

Personally, I would retain these guys through the end of their current deals in 2021 and trade from the other depth on the roster. While I love watching a guy like Kyle Schwarber hit, I think he is the type that will be moved. This would free up something like $10 million in 2021. With Schwarber becoming a more proficient fielder, and the real possibility that the DH is here to stay in the National League, Schwarber still has value across baseball.

This is a guy that isn’t going to demand a giant contract but has the ability to land a plus prospect or two in return. If there is a pitcher that is a year away from the big leagues, that will be cost-controlled for five to six years, and has the ability to slot into the third spot in a future rotation – I believe the Cubs would have to take it. The bonus of moving someone like Schwarber is clearing up to $45 million in payroll for the 2021 season (not Schwarber’s salary, but the difference between the Cubs payroll and the CBT of $210 million).

Of the three big guys, I would look at moving Baez from the group.

Look, I love watching that dude play the game. Even when something doesn’t necessarily work out for him, he does it in a way that no ballplayer before him has done. His defensive ability is seemingly unmatched and that’s largely due to what I can only assume is his ability to be able to see into the future.

The biggest problem that I see if Baez is actually investing in his future.

I 1000% discredit individual results in 2020. I cannot imagine what the players had been going through on a daily basis. I don’t think we can quantify how much the lack of a crowd noise has had on their performance. I can suggest that in my days of some tournament bowling, it took a long time to get used to bowling with little to no background noise when I was in head-to-head matchups. I didn’t feel the adrenaline or the comfort level I felt with other bowlers around and creating noise. Similarly, I don’t think you can discredit the impact this had on players.

I also don’t think you can quantify how much stopping play in March, going home for three months, having an ugly public contract dispute, and restarting a weird season had on players either. Or just simply getting tested every other day and having just one more thought in your head while trying to compete at the highest level.

But with all that said, Baez has put up one above well average season (2018), one seemingly good season (2019), and several adequate seasons. I really want to buy into his ability to be more of the player he was in 2018 or 2019, but the other years loom very heavily. He was probably a no-brainer to get an extension before the 2018 season as he was valuable but wouldn’t cost a ton. Then 2018 happened, and to a lesser degree 2019, and the script has been changed. Do you buy into him being the above .850 OPS guy or is he the below .800 OPS type?

I understand that there will be a ton of people that tear this recommendation apart. I 100% understand your point. I just think if you’re handing out 150 million dollars, you have to absolutely, for certain, know what that player is. All I can confidently say about Baez is he’s exciting and plays phenomenal defense. The Cubs already passed out $184 million to a defensive whiz in Jason Heyward, they cannot toss that money out to Baez when they don’t know if he is that 30 home run, high 4 WAR player or not.

Both Rizzo and Bryant have shown the world that they are the players that they are. Heck, even if you believe Bryant is closer to the 2019 version of himself over the 2016-17 version, if you’re handing out paychecks on production you feel more comfortable doing so with Bryant. This is a guy that has proven his production when he is healthy. Now, do you really believe that a player will consistently get hurt for the rest of his career? Eh, I don’t think there’s significant information on either side that tells you how you can count on injuries to affect the rest of his career.

I would be more fearful of Rizzo’s health being a factor in his next contract, which is why I suggest something in a four-year deal with perhaps a fifth-year option. I would provide Rizzo the opportunity to opt out of the deal after two seasons, which allows him to protect himself if he outperforms the deal or if he doesn’t like the direction the club is going. We have to remember, Theo might not return after the 2021 season and while most believe Jed Hoyer will be the successor, that might not be a given either. This would take him to his age-36 season and would give the Cubs an out if his health doesn’t hold up.

In both Bryant and Rizzo’s case, a team option that would extend the deal would be sufficient. As I previously recommended, Bryant’s next contract should be something like a six-year deal where there is a player option after the second or third season (or both) and a club option to extend the deal to a seventh season. This would take Bryant to possibly his age-37 season in 2027.

Those are what I would do. If the Cubs succumb to public pressure, I would imagine that they provide a new deal to Baez and Rizzo and shop guys like Bryant and Schwarber. I’m here to tell you that unless they get a giant haul for Bryant, the next five years without him won’t be as good as the previous six with him.