Grading Theo, His Future, Growing Faction Want Him Out Now

Thankfully, or unthankfully (not a word…), all the Chicago Cubs talk has been about Theo Epstein and his future. Because of a report that came out last week, suggesting Theo will leave as early as this offseason, a small group of Cubs fans has become very vocal on their thoughts. They have voiced their displeasure in some trades, some spending, and the inability to fix obvious holes in the roster. This has led to everyone and their mother providing a letter grade for Theo, because giving out letter grades is the Chicago-way.

If I were to give Theo a letter grade, it is a hard *A* and I’m not sure how anyone could grade otherwise.

When the Cubs introduced Theo as the team’s president of baseball operations, he listed off a plan for the organization, and to a tee, his entire plan played out.

“I firmly believe that we can preserve the things that make the Cubs so special and over time build a consistent winner, a team that will be playing baseball in October consistently and a team that will ultimately win the World Series.”

“We’re going to build the best baseball operation we can. We’re going to change the culture. Our players are going to change the culture along with us in the major league clubhouse. We’re going to make building a foundation for sustained success a priority. That will lead to playing October baseball more often than not. Once you get in in October there’s a legitimate chance to win the World Series.”

The incredible thing that I have witnessed among this fanbase is, we used to admire the high-priced veteran player Jim Hendry would sign two years after their effective years were over. Then over time, likely because of the incredible group of prospects Theo and Jed Hoyer were able to accumulate over the years, fans seemed to value prospects more than proven players. Not to completely destroy the Hendry approach, as it worked better than the previous 50 years of Cubs baseball. But, it never ended in a World Series appearance – let alone a championship.

Theo upgraded the entire organization. If you recall, before Theo entered Cubs offices, they were still using typewriters. There wasn’t network infrastructure, there weren’t computers and tablets and other communication devices. There wasn’t a database with information on their own players and certainly wasn’t stored scouting information on any other player from other organizations.

The team didn’t have a cohesive training regimen. They didn’t have programs for hitters or pitchers. This organization was playing baseball in the 21st century with the tools that were obsolete in 1980. Theo pushed for and changed this. Not only at the big league level – he forced the change throughout every level of Cubs baseball.

He built a core through trading for Anthony Rizzo and then drafting guys like Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Kris Bryant. He found a pair of free agents that changed the Cubs landscape in Jon Lester and Ben Zobrist. Then showed off the Cubs scouting muscle when they acquired Pedro Strop, Jake Arrieta, Dexter Fowler, and Kyle Hendricks via trade. The only real luck involved was benefiting from Hendry’s last draft class which included Javier Baez and Willson Contreras changing positions in the lower levels. I suppose there is a little more luck with the Baltimore Orioles acting a fool which caused Fowler to return to the Cubs in 2016.

All of this ended with that unforgettable early November night in 2016 when the Cubs ended a 108-year drought.

For an organization that hadn’t won in 108 years, that hadn’t been in a World Series in 71 years, before 2015 they hadn’t won a playoff game in their last seven postseason games – how could any grade besides an A be awarded?

Sure, there is trading away DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. This equates to 32.7 fWAR being sent elsewhere, and each of these could fill a hole in the current Cubs roster. Either LeMahieu or Torres would look phenomenal at second base everyday in a Cubs lineup. Soler and Jimenez could look great in either corner OF spot or DH and providing more flexibility with both Schwarber or Jason Heyward throughout the years. With the Cubs rotation possibly losing three starting pitchers this offseason, Cease and his 100-MPH arm would have been a welcome addition in 2021.

Just looking at 2019, the Cubs had 31 homers and a .903 OPS from Bryant, 28 HR from Baez, 27 HR .925 OPS from Rizzo, 38 HR .870 OPS from Schwarber, 24 HR and .888 OPS from Contreras. Imagine adding another 31 HR and .828 OPS from Eloy. Another 48 HR and .923 outta Soler. How about 38 hr and a .872 OPS from Gleyber, or a crazy .327/.375/.518 slash line with a .893 OPS from LeMehieu. Just using the first eight players the Cubs could have had (assuming no environmental change is results) 265 homers. If Theo decided to keep LeMahieu around, that is another guy in the lineup (outside Rizzo or Zobrist and Heyward) which don’t strike out often.

The trades are what a lot of people point to when discrediting Theo, after all, that is a ton of talent. But, LeMehieu wasn’t a Theo guy and wasn’t the player they moved – credit him for becoming the player he’s become. Gleyber also wasn’t as high of a prospect as people pretend him to be, and he was loved for the final piece of a World Series win. Regardless of how you try to retell history, the Cubs do NOT win the World Series if Aroldis Chapman wasn’t on the roster.

The Eloy and Cease move is often misremembered as well, but yes, the crosstown White Sox will have both of their services for a long, long time, while Jose Quintana was mostly unimpressive and will walk in free agency this offseason. But the other part of this trade was freeing up future free-agent dollars for a pitcher they would have control of for four more years. This trade quite possibly afforded the front office the ability to retain the core as long as they did.

Soler for Wade Davis is frowned upon because Jorge almost hit 50 homers in 2019. But, if Soler plays 14 years in MLB, eight of them will see him miss considerable time due to injury. When healthy, he might hit 50 homers in today’s style of baseball. If not, he’s going to be a healthy salary weighing down options for a team.

I guess hindsight is 20/20, but when there were guys like Bryant – who when healthy plays like the MVP he was in 2016, and Baez – who the team has always been high on. There isn’t a single player that the organization has spoken more highly of than Schwarber, so if there was ever an Eloy (unproven minor leaguer) or Soler (oft-injured) question, the front office was going to choose Kyle. With Gleyber, the Cubs absolutely believed their future was secure with Addison Russell and Baez up the middle. This trade was well before any character issues emerged with Russell, and Theo had mentioned Baez was one of the reasons this job was attractive. Why wouldn’t they choose a player many thought would be in the MVP conversation at some point (Russell) or Baez over Gleyber – again, an unproven, minor league player?

There is some question about his use of resources. The biggest contracts in question have to be Heyward and Craig Kimbrel.

Now, I am not going to bash these guys as I understand that these dudes are running out there and trying. I also understand that outside of the day they ink their deal, their salary really doesn’t matter. Sure, a $25 million chunk that represents 12.5% of the budget is an obstacle, but when there are multiple $25 million annual salaries it does get more difficult to navigate free agency and adding to a roster. I would argue that it becomes even more difficult to navigate after you’ve been told the financial resources will be available to the on-field talent – but then that promise was reneged upon while the baseball executives are mid-way through a plan.

Signing guys like Heyward, Lester, Kimbrel, Tyler Chatwood, and Yu Darvish doesn’t put the financial restraints on a club if the expectation is that more money would be available. The turn the organization made during the 2018 off-season, an off-season where many throughout the industry believed the Cubs would spend a bunch of money, left fans and media members alike scratching their heads. For an organization that needed to supplement a roster that was entering the back-nine of their competitive years, they all of a sudden cried poor.

We began to see Tom Ricketts discuss how expensive the Wrigley renovations had become. We saw the club actively worrying about a competitive balance tax that at most they would face a $10 million tax from (drop in the bucket for an organization bringing in more than $450 million).

Now, I have no doubts the renovations were expensive, but understanding a little about how investment money works, the Ricketts were likely making money as any potential expense was more than covered under tax credits. I’d bet the Ricketts were able to suggest a loss, which could have covered their entire tax bill.

But there were certainly handcuffs on the team payroll. Handcuffs when they were told they would be free to make baseball decisions and ownership would support them. Imagine if Theo and Jed were free to sign free agents the last two seasons? They (ownership) changed the narrative on Theo’s time here.

There is only one real issue that I have had with Theo Epstein in his time in Chicago. I was 100% behind him when rebuilding. Even when the Cubs were losing 100 games a season. I was behind Bryan LaHair or Tyler Colvin or Ian Stewart were playing every day. I was behind them when they would trade the best players on the club in July knowing they were really there to help the 2016 team and beyond. I was behind the Heyward, Chatwood, and Darvish contracts. I supported moving on from Arrieta. There wasn’t much in terms of baseball moves that I disagreed with since Theo and Jed were running the show.

The only thing I do disagree with, and the only issue I have with Theo Epstein is – he never denied the false Kris Bryant contract rumors.

David freaking Kaplan changed the narrative on Kris Bryant the minute he opened his loud mouth back in 2018. On ESPN-1000, Kaplan gave the idea that Bryant turned down a contract extension worth well north of $200 million. Not only has this rumor been turned down as false from other media outlets and Kris Bryant himself, but I have also personally confirmed with someone close to Bryant that this offer never existed.

While that rumor circulated, fans that buy into Scott Boras being a money-hungry agent that will only take his clients to the highest possible bidder, latched on and never read a rebuttal. Those fans, to this day, still believe Bryant turned down this offer. Those fans are often the same ones that have torn into Bryant in 2018 and 2020 disregarding the injury or weirdness of this past season.

This has built up a rather strong bias against Bryant these past three seasons, and even though he was an All-Star in 2019 that performed at an MVP level for much of the season, they still say he hasn’t performed since he won the MVP in 2016.

Flat out blatant lies (or, what they claim are opinions, which can be dispelled by simply searching Google for his stats) aside, all Theo had to do is say, “while we don’t publicly discuss negotiations with players, we have been in close contact with Scott about Kris’ future in Chicago but no formal offers have been exchanged.”

If he says that once, just once, the idiotic narrative around Bryant is removed. This is, after all, the best player in the entire organization and has been since the day the Cubs drafted him. The only reasoning I can think of to not squash this rumor is to use some of this when negotiating with Bryant – if they ever actually do.

I would suggest that this be taken with Theo in his next chapter, whatever that might be. No, he won’t enter the political arena, it will almost certainly be in baseball. But his next stop will likely be something with more responsibility and having a much larger ability to affect the game. I have seen a lot of folks say he should be in the running for the commissioner’s job once Rob Manfred is gone, but honestly, I don’t believe that would be utilizing his talents to the fullest.

I really can’t imagine what that next role is, whether it is ownership or some new position, but he will certainly be as successful – if not more – than he has been as a general manager or president of baseball operations. After all is said and done, this is someone that has already earned a bust in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.