Don’t Fall For the Kris Bryant Contract Extension Rumor
We see this time and time again, and there is one person at the root of it all – Scott Boras. Now, unlike a lot of people, I don’t despise Scott, I don’t loathe him, in fact, I kind of appreciate him. He has done his job better than any other agent in baseball, mostly.
But first, let’s take a quick dive into the Kris Bryant rumor that is out there.
David Kaplan said on ESPN AM-1000 today that several months ago the Chicago Cubs approached Kris Bryant about a contract extension. That extension, as Kaplan reported, was well north of $200 million. This would have made Kris Bryant the richest Cub of all-time, perhaps not in AAV (as we do not know the length) but in total value. But even though Bryant would have been just the 14th player (10th active) in MLB history to break the $200 million plateau, he turned the deal down. That becomes a head scratcher…
Well, unless you know a couple of things that were about to happen.
The 2019 offseason will see some of the game’s best talent hitting the free agent market. From well documented free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado to Clayton Kershaw potentially opting out of his deal. There are several players that should not only sign for more than $200 million, but those three names could very probably shoot right past $200 million to $300 million and potentially even more.
Knowing the amount of money that is going to get tossed around this offseason, Bryant (presumably) would possibly do himself a disservice by signing for $200 million. All Bryant would have to do is have three Kris Bryant-like seasons, and he will at least equal whatever Harper and Machado earn this offseason.
Outside of having the peace of mind in knowing that his long-term future was secure, he would very likely shortchange himself, well, as much as anyone can call $200 million being shortchanged.
Money isn’t exactly something Kris needs to worry about. He has made $19,731,848 million throughout his career, which includes the biggest first-year arbitration raise in baseball history. With a season which saw Kris miss 60 games in 2018, he will likely see an increase to around $12.4 million (according to the Baseball-Reference arbitration projection model). The Cubs rumored offer would certainly pay Bryant more than $12.4 million, and inevitably more than Bryant could earn even if he and Scott pushed the Cubs to an arbitration trial.
But regardless of all of this, Bryant would stand to make much more if he were to wait until he becomes a free agent in 2022. In fact, since baseball’s CBA is set to expire the same year. This could potentially allow for Bryant to come to a historic agreement once his deal is over because along with the CBA ending, so does the current competitive balance tax. Understanding that Bryant and Boras will most definitely point to this offseason as a guideline to structure Bryant’s deal around, and knowing the current restraints on team payrolls could very likely change – settling now would be in the worst interest for Kris Bryant.
This should be fun (or disheartening) to look at after this offseason is complete, and once Bryant hits free agency, which he has eluded to in the past, the actual number he signs for could very well trump the number I’m going to show you.
Spotrac lists all player and team salaries from all major sports leagues. An interesting feature that they have added is their Market Value tab.
When you look at the “market value” for Bryant, he is estimated at $24.5 million a season. Based on age, contract status, and statistical production (up to this point) they compare Bryant to Giancarlo Stanton ($325M), Mike Trout ($144.5M), Jason Heyward ($184M), and Joey Votto ($225M). Using these players, linear regression, and age, they assume Bryant would be able to sign a 10 yr contract valued at $236 million. Assuming Harper and Machado both sign deals in the $300 million range over 10 years, this would push Bryant to somewhere in the neighborhood of $267 million over 10 years.
Is that why Bryant wants to hold off?
I doubt it. I would put my money on Bryant doing his due diligence for the next round of players that become free agents.
This is the same reason Bryant and Boras still have the grievance open against the Cubs because of the service time fiasco the Cubs pulled in 2015. Now, of course, this is something that was well within the Cubs right, well, even though they had to make up some story on how Bryant had some things to work on still.
But Bryant has always said that the grievance isn’t about him as it is about other players and making sure that they don’t have to endure the same. With Bryant waiting until he is a free agent, and certainly ensuring that he can earn as much as he is worth, this allows other players to earn more money as that next guy gets to use his deal as a starting point.
So even if for some reason the Cubs did offer the Kris a deal, and for some reason, Kaplan was the only person in the media to get the story (all other Cubs beat writers have been silent on this rumor), Bryant shouldn’t have accepted. Had the Cubs have offered a deal “several months ago” there would have been more insiders that would have had this story. There are incredibly good professionals that report this team on a daily basis. There are several national guys that have their ears to the pulse of the Cubs. For Kaplan to get this news, perhaps the biggest news to hit the Cubs since their championship, it just doesn’t completely add up.
Just know Cubs fans, all teams that have generational talent like Bryant will try and get them to sign an extension. Not all of them do, and that doesn’t mean anything and shouldn’t say anything about the player. This is the business end of the game, and fans should try to separate it from their feelings on players. Well, at least that’s easy for me to say.
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