The One Trade That Will Make The Cubs Offense Incredible
KANSAS CITY, MO -JUNE 23: Whit Merrifield #15 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates his game-winning two-run double in the ninth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium on June 23, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. The Royals won 5-4. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
So while everyone is talking about the Chicago Cubs signing free agents, Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, I’m over here salivating over another offseason possibility. This wouldn’t cost the Cubs money, and it wouldn’t be the cause of lost draft picks or any financial fines. What it will do is make the Cubs the most dominate offense in the National League. Just what, or who might be the guy that could do this? Whit Merrifield, the Kansas City Royals second baseman.
A trade for Merrifield isn’t a new idea around Cubs circles, and NBC Sports and ESPN Chicago’s David Kaplan spoke about a Merrifield trade recently as well.
Now, I have disagreed a lot with things Kaplan has said with regard to the Cubs over the past couple years, including a far-fetched rumor which he stretched truths to create, but this is something I feel could happen. In the podcast, Kaplan suggests that the Cubs trade left fielder, Kyle Schwarber to the Royals for Merrifield. Kaplan also suggests that Merrifield would start 155 or more games while being penned in as the Cubs’ leadoff man.
The Cubs haven’t had a leadoff hitter, well, traditional leadoff hitter since Dexter Fowler left after the 2016 season. While the Cubs have had stints which looked like very good offense, since Dexter left they just haven’t consistently clicked. Many people believe that today’s game doesn’t need a traditional leadoff hitter for teams to be successful, but the lack of a leadoff hitter just might be the reason the Cubs have fired hitting coaches in consecutive seasons.
Bringing in Merrifield would improve the Cubs lineup. But it isn’t just about hitting, he did hit .316/.369/.452 as a leadoff hitter this season, it is also his ability to reach second at a high rate.
For instance, Albert Almora batted .286 on the season, and was over .300 for much of it. The issue with Almora was a lack of anything other than singles. Almora almost refused to walk, he didn’t hit many extra base hits, he was basically a singles hitter in 2018. Merrifield, while no one would confuse him with a power hitter, had 55 extra base knocks. He also added 61 walks.
Where Merrifield became dangerous was on the base paths. Merrifield was a threat to swipe a base at any time, something that eluded the Cubs in recent years. In 2018, the Cubs were 24th in baseball in stolen bases, 69 swipes from the most aggressive team, the Cleveland Indians. Merrifield on the other hand has led the American League in stolen bases in each of the past two seasons, stealing 45 and 34 respectively. Adding his speed would place the Cubs in the top six in stolen bases.
What will it cost?
The Royals are defunct of talent at nearly all levels. Merrifield is very likely their most attractive piece. Now Kaplan mentions that the Cubs could dangle Schwarber for Merrifield, and while several people will argue if he’s enough or too much, but I just don’t think he’s what the Royals are looking for.
This is a team that’s rebuilding, and they need talent they can retain for years. Now, yes, Schwarber isn’t eligible to become a free agent until the 2022 season, but I believe the Royals want guys that haven’t seen time at the MLB level yet. If they trade Merrifield, who has five more years of control, why would they shorten their window of opportunity by receiving less controllable years in return?
I think a package of like Ian Happ, David Bote, and possibly Mike Montgomery makes much more sense.
Happ isn’t eligible to hit free agency until 2024, Bote until 2025. Montgomery sends a player that’s controllable for three more seasons, but is a trade from a position of depth from the Cubs, to a position of need for the Royals. This is 14 years of control, solid talent, for Merrifield’s five years.
Why it won’t work
At the start of the 2019 season, the Royals will be just four years removed from a championship, and back-to-back appearances in the World Series. This was after a 20-year drought and a franchise that’s made the playoffs nine times in their history. It is likely the Royals fans won’t allow for a complete rebuild, especially one where they deal their best player. A team that couldn’t draw 25,000 fans a game in 2014, a year they would win the AL title, and only drew 33,000 the next season when they won the championship – fan buy-in is huge in Kansas City.
Even if this is something the Royals pursue, they have to do so and sell it to their fan base as a means to get back to the World Series. When a team trades their best player, it makes that a hard sell.
This goes back to the thought that the Royals need to get stars in return, with several years of control. I personally love Schwarber, as many of you are, and am lukewarm on Happ. But right now the Cubs have to bank on teams like the Royals buying in on potential and not the results. Simply put, Merrifield has been better than either of those two and there would need to be a hard sell on power, potential, and championship pedigree for Kansas City to consider a deal.
Probability
Merrifield’s name was bandied about at the trade deadline, but Royals general manager, Dayton Moore strongly suggested that the Royals has no interest in trading him, at that time. Merrifield has also expressed an interest in staying in Kansas City, and has even suggested signing an extension to stay.
Ultimately, the business of baseball in 2018 always wins. The Royals are rebuilding and if there’s value coming back, that can help the Royals win, they will pull the trigger. While I talked poorly of Schwarber and Happ a couple paragraphs up, these are two of the more intriguing young players in baseball. There is so much potential, and even with questions hovering over each, they both enter the 2019 offseason with career OPS’ over .800.
In order to get this done, the Cubs will absolutely need to offer more than one MLB player. We could see a Schwarber and Almora/Happ/Montgomery mix. There would likely be another player added, perhaps a young bullpen arm. I think the Royals would be hard-pressed to flat out reject any offer, but previous stances on Merrifield could either drive offers higher, or limit the players at the table.
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