Cubs Working Tough Trade Lines
Feb 22, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward (22) watches batting practice during spring training camp at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
The Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are soon to huddle within their offices just steps away from Wrigley Field trying to maneuver a way out of a potential financial mess. This is a self-imposed wound which is the result of past offseason’s coming back to bite the club. With a luxury tax seemingly staring the Cubs in the face, the team needs to add talent, but not likely at the expense of the organization’s checking account.
It appears the rumors which slipped out last week on the club’s inability to spend was true, this has been the message talked about from Cubs insiders as well as the message Jed and Theo have echoed this past week in San Diego. Instead of adding via free agency dollars, the club is certainly looking towards the trade market. To do this, the club has got to get rather creative.
“There’s lots of different ways to do it,” Epstein said. “You can trade up the service time clock, you can trade backwards for more years of control, you can trade for an established guy, you can trade for somebody you think is ready to break out. There’s no one way to do it. You can trade two comparable players with different shapes if you think it benefits you.”
In the response above, it certainly appears that the Cubs will be looking to move a player that is under team control, and when he mentions the service time clock, it looks like he is looking to move younger players. This, in essence, makes some sense. The Cubs could trade guys like Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Tommy La Stella, Mike Montgomery, Carl Edwards, Kyle Hendricks, and others that are arbitration eligible for players with a similar clock or with more years of control. This method could add more flexibility in 2019, but also allow the Cubs to retain talent a bit more into the future, at a much lower cost.
One such deal could be one that involves the Cubs and the Kansas City Royals. Let’s just say the Cubs are able to acquire Whit Merrifield from the Royals for Kyle Schwarber and Carl Edwards. Both Schwarber and Edwards are arbitration eligible this season, meaning their $604K and $594K deals will both escalate to $3.1 M and $1.4 M respectively (using MLBTradeRumors projections). Since Merrifield is still pre-arb, a trade like this would save the Cubs nearly $4 million in salary this next season. As everyone progresses through arbitration, a move like this would end up saving the club more and more.
The downside of a move similar to the above deal is, the Cubs are selling low on just about any potentially movable piece. Schwarber was much more valuable after 2016, where he missed nearly the entire season due to a knee injury. Ian Happ was much more valued after the 2017 season, and due to an almost record-breaking rate of strikeouts in 2018, his value has fallen as well. In fact, the same is true for Almora, Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini, and the club’s shortstop. While the idea is intriguing, the thought of moving incredibly high ceiling talent for nickels on the dollar isn’t.
So the other way to remain somewhat fiscally responsible is; trading some more established players.
That list of guys would consist of, Jason Heyward, Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, and Jose Quintana. The only attractive name on that group is Quintana. Moving the remaining $106 million on Heyward’s deal, or the $81 million on Darvish, or finding anyone dumb enough to want Chatwood would prove to be a very tough task. There are creative ways to figure out a Heyward move, but the rest would need a lot of heavy lifting from the Cubs.
Maybe the Cubs offer half of the salary for any of those players. Heyward at $12 million a season, or Darvish at $11 million, and Chatwood at $6.5 million makes a lot of sense for someone to bite on – and importantly could increase trade value. Heyward improved his stock, increasing his batting average 40 points since his first season in Chicago. There is the allure of acquiring an all-star quality pitcher, and at half price Darvish is a steal. Freeing up even half the salary of either, or both, could help the Cubs finish off the 2019 free agency with a big time free agent.
Neither pill will taste great going down. The club is either losing value by selling low on someone or biting a salary bullet and losing value on a trade.
If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d guess the only way the Cubs make any free agent acquisition is by doing a mix of both.
The Cubs need to do something to jumpstart an offense that sputtered for a lot of the past two seasons. If the Cubs can present a deal to acquire Merrifield, extending their controllable window by as much as two seasons AND free up $12 million through a trade it keeps the Cubs well below the $246 million tax limit, even if they sign a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado type.
Be very prepared to hear a lot of rumors, the Kris Bryant one is just the start. This is an organization that’s looking to throw a lot of smokescreens out there to keep everyone off their scent.
