2022 Chicago Cubs, Maybe I’m Optimistic

I never put a label on my Chicago Cubs fandom before, but back in 2009, Michael J. Fox visited Wrigley Field promoting a book. In the book, “Always Looking Up,” Fox talked about the need to be optimistic. This made sense, given his diagnosis, and my childhood favorite actor mentioned how Cubs fans were the most optimistic in sports. At the time, the optimism was because so many strange occurrences would happen that would break the hearts of Cubs fans – almost always in the worst ways – but we kept coming back believing that “that is our year,” even when there was no proof to support it.

Over the last several years, especially after 2016, that optimism had changed to skepticism and fans began looking at the club with extreme criticism and less optimism.

Since the 2021 trade deadline, a time which had mostly driven me away from writing, the Cubs roster had proven to be kinda fun to watch. This wasn’t a group that would contend for a title, but the roster had something that drew you to them, and they were… likable. A lot of those same guys are still a part of this roster. The Frank Schwindel’s and Patrick Wisdom’s. Rafael Ortega’s and Michael Hermosillo’s. Now, the Cubs added an extremely likable Marcus Stroman and there are stories that are intriguing like Justin Steele and Clint Frazier. To say the least, I am starting to buy into the 2022 team as something that will provide hours upon hours of entertainment this summer.

I have gone from being pretty critical of the club – and the lack of the front office doing things that I wanted them to do – to believing this team will be more enjoyable and will exceed the predictions of many.

Let’s define what I mean here. I am not predicting championships, and I’m not even suggesting they will be in the playoffs. Now, I do think if everything goes right, there is a chance something interesting happens which could result in extra baseball on the Northside. But I literally mean everything needs to go right.

What needs to go right?

Pitching

For starters, Kyle Hendricks needs to be Kyle Hendricks again. I do think the makeup of the 2021 Cubs rotation didn’t help Hendo and some midseason moves might have caused some mental lapses with several Cubs players. Do I think Kyle can return to being the pitcher he was before 2021? Yes. I would even suggest it would be foolish to suggest otherwise.

The other big piece is a great start from Marcus Stroman. I 1000% believe in him and think he is potentially on the verge of being one of the next elite guys. However, it seems that pitchers that have signed strong free-agent contracts tend to struggle in their first season with a new club. Example: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish.

Stro seems to be cut from a different cloth, though. While I would suggest the others are confident and great, Stroman seems to have next-level confidence, and a chip on his shoulder because of the way things ended in New York. These factors should help him rise above the struggles we generally see from others. I really think Stroman can put up elite-level stuff, and dare I say… CY Young level?

The injury to Codi Heuer and Adbert Alzolay really hurt. Heuer should have solidified the backend of the Cubs bullpen and Alzolay, with his 2021 experience, would have rounded out the pen or rotation nicely. Heuer will miss the entire 2022 season, however, Alzolay will return after his 60-day IL stint.

I do count on Steele to play a big role on this year’s club. Whether that help is in the pen or rotation is yet to be seen, but he has looked good in the spring and can have that punch-out stuff the staff lacked in 2021. Drew Smyly also presents an interesting arm. I don’t expect much better than his 2021 performance (>150 innings, <4.00 ERA) but that is ok for a fourth or fifth starter. Well, as long as the pen holds up its end of the bargain.

Offense

After D-Day 2021, the Cubs’ offense actually performed better than they did with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo. Is that an indictment of what kind of players those three are? Absolutely not. There isn’t a single offensive player on the 2022 Cubs that is as good as any of those three. But, sometimes shaking up the makeup of the offense provides instant results.

Now, those results didn’t end up in wins, and wins are the goal in professional sports. The shakeup did however provide a breath of fresh air with the Cubs’ offense. See, the issue wasn’t Bryant or Baez or Rizzo, the issue was that there were far too many guys that fit a similar mold. Power hitters, hunting fastballs that they could put in the seats. That approach was cast throughout the Cubs lineup, one thru eight, and the entire offense became predictable and easy to game plan around. When the club traded the core away, the remaining parts added variety, and something that caused opposing pitchers some more thought or hardship getting through. Problem was, they weren’t able to put up more runs than the pitchers gave up most nights.

I feel we should be optimistic about the offense in 2022. While I do think it can have the feeling of being disjointed at times, ultimately the offense should be even better in 2022. Here’s why.

Clint Frazier will hit 25 or more home runs in 2022 for the Cubs. How can I say that about a hitter that finished 2021 under the Mendoza line and hasn’t even gotten close to 20 homers? Well, his progress so far in Spring has been very encouraging. That bat speed is top five in baseball, his swing appears to be better than ever, and he will get everyday opportunities for the first time in his career. If you project his 2019 across 150 games, he’s a .800+ OPS hitter with more than 25 homers – and I’m here for that.

In 2020, Ian Happ was a potential MVP candidate till the last month of the season. In 2019, he finished the season as the player of the month, and in 2021 he was a top five hitter in September. We have seen good Happ and not so great Happ, in 2022 I think we see a playing-for-a-contract-extension-Happ. Write him in for a .360+ OBP and 20 homers and he’s one of those missing pieces that really round out an offense.

Speaking of rounding out an offense, Seiya Suzuki has the ability to be a pretty special player. Not only can he show off some power himself, it will be his ability to get on base at a high clip while being a contact-type bat that also does damage when hitting the ball. He is simply a special talent and will be one of the three-four hitters that will be hard to strike out on the roster. If he hits .265/.370/.450 I think that is a successful first season in Chicago. One caution I would add here is, it will take a while for him to adjust to MLB velocity and MLB level movement. We saw him already make an adjustment on velo when he hit his ST homer, getting rid of the leg kick and adopting a toe tap. The next adjustment will be keeping on the breaking balls long enough to prove they’re strikes or balls, and not bailing. I don’t fear that he won’t make the necessary adjustments, especially since we have seen him do it already.

Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel need to repeat their 2021 campaigns. Of the two, I feel Wisdom has the better chance to do so. He was a higher thought about prospect and has performed as people thought when he was drafted. Frank, there’s something about his story that I really love, but for some reason, I just have less confidence that he will repeat his 2021. Hopefully, I’m wrong and the Cubs found a .950+ OPS guy. He has done nothing but produce as a professional, leading the Pioneer League in hits in 2013, being an All-Star in 2014 and 16, winning the George Brett Player of the Year in 2017, Omaha Player of the Year in 2018, and getting invited to the 60-man camp for Detroit in 2020.

Wisdom on the other hand is a slugger through and through. He will launch 30 balls into bleachers across the league, but will likely strike out 150 times. The real test to his future is handling soft stuff, something he will get better at as he gets more and more experience and sees more and more pro-level stuff.

Not only is there one player that I think will have a resurgent season, but I believe Willson Conteres might have one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a catcher in Chicago. Here is a guy playing for an extension, one he believes he has earned already. Players that are in this type of spot tend to have amazing seasons, and I don’t see why we wouldn’t expect that from Contreras. Let’s say this is how a Cubs lineup looks in 2022:

• Rafael Ortega, CF
• Seiya Suzuki, RF
• Ian Happ, LF
• Patrick Wisdom, 3B
• Willson Contreras, C
• Frank Schwindel, 1B
• Clint Frazier, DH
• Nick Madrigal, 2B
• Andrelton Simmons, SS

Contreras will have plenty of opportunities, he is also protected in front and behind. I love his ability to hit with power to center and the other way, and if a pitcher tries painting corners he has the ability to do damage on those pitches.

Middle infielders are aplenty on this club, with Madrigal, Simmons, Nico Hoerner, David Bote, and Jonathan Villar fighting for plenty of at bats. Madrigal and Hoerner will play important offensive roles in 2022. Both have a similar hit tool, make contact, spray hard line drives to all fields. Not particularly fast, but above-average speed. Of the five middle-infield types, those two are the most intriguing.

What I would hate to see happen is David Ross either feels the obligation or has the told-ligation to play Jason Heyward every day. I love JHey, I appreciate his leadership, his defense, his IQ, and just the professionalism he displays every single day. The offensive part has just never come to fruition with Heyward, and it is so disappointing. What is even more disappointing is, the Cubs pay him as a lefty impact bat, the Cubs need a lefty impact bat, but it just hasn’t clicked since coming to Chicago. This is part of the game, these things happen, but man it would be nice to have a lefty that you can sit fifth or sixth in that lineup that drives the ball out of the ballpark.

Lastly, David Ross will have a giant influence on this Cubs roster. He just received an extension and his decision-making, his leadership, his ability to shape a young or less experience roster, and his ability to relate to someone like Suzuki is going to be huge. I am a big Ross guy, and I know there are a lot of fans out there that don’t like some of his decisions. That is fair. He hasn’t always made the best decision, or perhaps a decision went sideways. He is as young to the job as a lot of the players are to the show. I do really feel Ross will take the past couple of years of experience and learn from it, and he will be a very solid manager in this game for a very long time.

What does this all mean?

I again will say this isn’t a championship-caliber team. They don’t have the bullets to battle with teams like the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, LA Dodgers, or San Diego Padres. But I don’t think the Milwaukee Brewers are as much of a slam dunk as a lot of people say they are. On top of that, the St Louis Cardinals didn’t get better this offseason, the Cincinnati Reds got a lot worse, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are a dumpster fire.

I don’t think the Cubs will win the Central in 2022 (sorry… I wish they would, and hope they will). I don’t think this division is as top-heavy as many suggest it is. The Cubs play the Brewers and Cardinals 10 times, and Pirates and Reds nine times. In those 38 games, would it be crazy to think the Cubs could win 22 to 24? Then in the other 124 if they win half of them, that is an 82ish win team. At the end of 2021, and the narrative that Cubs didn’t spend enough this offseason, would you think they could win 82 in 2022?

Hope does spring eternal, and as Michael J. Fox suggested way back in 2009 – I am optimistic that this is the Cubs year, yet again.