Reports: Arrieta open to extension
Let’s start of with saying Jake Arrieta is one cool dude, and I love that man like I knew him personally.
Anyway…
I’m usually of the belief of never signing pitchers to an extension unless deemed necessary.
Even after Jake Arrieta‘s Cy Young season (222 ERA+, .865 WHIP), I’m not sure the Cubs should go about extending the righty this off-season. Sure, there’s risk of waiting another year (i.e. he listens to Boras and waits it out until after 2017 when he’s a free agent), but I think there’s a little too much risk of inking a deal right now.
So, let’s say, the Cubs agree to a five-year deal (would bring Arrieta through his age-33 season) for $100 million. Would you do it?
Arrieta earned $3.63 million in 2015, but went on to produce a 1.77 ERA and 8.7 fWAR. His K/9 was barely down, but 73 more innings than 2014. He’s been steadily improving since coming to Chicago and being able to work with pitching coach Chris Bosio.
Arrieta made it seem like a long term contact was being talked about and possible .
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) January 14, 2016
Even at a slight drop-off from 2015, Arrieta will still be one of the most valuable pitchers out there. His ability to control the fastball and curveball automatically makes him dangerous, and that’s before you mention how absolutely disgusting the sweeper can be sometimes.
The contracts David Price (7/217) and Zack Grienke (6/206.5) signed this off-season will definitely play a role in negotiations with Arrieta and his agent, Scott Boras. Those guys have done it over a span of several years whereas Arrieta has only been on the map as a good pitcher for the last couple seasons. An extension of 5/100 still makes me hesitant because it’s just so hard to commit that much money to a pitcher who threw the most innings he ever has before in only his second full season with the team.
Those contracts likely drive up the price Arrieta would demand (Boras would demaned*), but there’s not a lot of data points out there to pinpoint a good number for a pitcher who’s only been as good as he has for a two-year span, who’s 29 years old, and coming off a Cy Young award season.
Carrie Muskat tweets Arrieta and Theo have yet to speak, but he doesn’t believe it would take long to reach an agreement.
Do I think Arrieta will be good for the next few seasons? Yes. Would he be worth that money? Yes. Fear is clouding my judgement, as it should when it comes to all pitching contract. Mind you, I really threw out the numbers of five years and $100 million. I can’t justify going more money without going more years, and even then it wouldn’t be that much. If a deal were to be struck, it would have to be extremely results-driven for me to comfortable about it right now.
We’ll see where it goes from here, and if something gets done before Spring Training or Opening Day. With Cubs Con the next few days, I doubt we hear anything more about it until next week. I don’t think Arrieta will let it run into the season so if nothing is done by mid-February then we probably won’t see anymore talks until next November.
*photo is courtesy of sportsmockery.com
