Bringing Ian Happ Up is a Bad Idea
I have read way too much lately on Ian Happ. Happ is the future. Trade Baez and bring Happ Up. Happ is the next great star. While I don’t disagree, Ian Happ appears to be a legit prospect for the Chicago Cubs. His performance in spring alone was enough to turn heads on how ready he is.
Thing is, he’s not ready. He certainly isn’t ready for the everyday grind of the show, and certainly isn’t ready to be called up to a team with World Series aspirations. And, he certainly isn’t being called up while on the disabled list.
Projection
Before Happ’s insane spring training, he had only earned 65 games at the Double-A level with the Tennessee Smokies. In the .274 plate appearances, he slashed .262/.318/.415. These aren’t dominating numbers.
Because of his previous production, and because the Cubs try to strive for 1,500 minor league plate appearances, Happ was destined for Tennessee once his spring was completed. He produced though. He showed the Cubs, and the rest of baseball, he was developing a bit quicker than anticipated. With that, the Cubs decided to promote him to Triple-A, which was the right idea.
Happ showed he had little more to learn in Tennessee and, well, Iowa would present new challenges and lessons he would need to learn before a jump to the bigs. This isn’t to say players can’t make jumps from Double-A to an MLB roster, but this organization wants to go through the levels and ensure a player dominates before they are called up.
Current Roster
The first step in being called up is being placed on the Cubs 40-man roster. At the moment the Cubs have 39 players on their 40-man roster, 23 of which are pitchers. It wouldn’t harm the Cubs to have Happ on the 40-man unless for some reason they were to pull him off. If they did pull him off the 40-man, Happ, even though he hasn’t used a single option, would be required to pass through irrevocable waivers. That would not happen, and someone would certainly claim him. To be clear, once Happ is on the 40-man, he will not be taken off of it.
Now, a team will typically leave a spot on their 40-man open, in the event of a trade, free agent signing, or injury. This gives them some flexibility with their roster for those just in case situations. To add Happ the team would probably have to subject someone to waivers. Now, yes, Happ is probably better than the 23rd pitcher on the Cubs 40-man, but that’s not the point. In fact, with as many injuries that happen to pitchers throughout a season, their value is probably more than a sixth infielder.
Further, looking at the roster, there’s the Cubs 25-man, which is the active MLB roster. Happ would likely take the roster spot of a Matt Szczur or Tommy La Stella. Having an another left-handed bat (Happ is a switch hitter) makes the most sense, but then the Cubs expose Szczur to waivers and the Cubs will lose him for nothing.
He will not take the place of Javy Baez, which some have suggested. Baez is a major leaguer, and Joe Maddon loves his game too much to send him down. Much to the chagrin of the send Addison Russell down guy, Addy isn’t going anywhere either. They are established major league ballplayers and have not played their way out of a roster spot.
This means it would be Szczur. The Cubs are not interested in losing him for nothing, which means they would need to trade him. So now the Cubs, in an effort to find a roster spot for Happ, would maneuver a trade which would likely get them a weak return. Having another switch-hitter would be nice, but making a deal in haste isn’t something a smart organization does.
Performance
Happ was out of this world during spring training. Then he continued his hot play in the first couple weeks in Iowa. Since he’s cooled off, way off.
Happ is currently slashing .250/.333/.571. He is proving he needs more time and needs to see more from pitchers before making the leap. While he killed Low-A, A-ball, and High-A, he struggled a bit in Tennessee and is now going through a rough patch in Triple-A.
For a player to be ready for the majors, especially on a team competing for championships, they need to dominate their current competition. Addison Russell slashed .318/.326/.474, Willson Contreras slashed .353/,442/.593, .303/.317/.416, Kyle Schwarber .320/.438/.579, and the hitter most would like Happ to replace… Javier Baez slashed .324/.385/.527 in his last minor league stint.
These players showed the ability to dominate at the highest level in the minor leagues. They earned the right to be on a major league roster for the Chicago Cubs. Happ isn’t far off, but he still has a lot to learn and see before he makes that leap.
Personal Development
There are a lot of areas in Happ’s game that he needs to continue to develop. He will not have that opportunity in the big leagues. He will sit more times than not, and while there’s something to be said about just being on a big league roster – he needs daily work to get better.
In 2016, Happ playing mostly second base had 14 errors in 92 games split between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee. While he can be a high average hitter, he tends to start hunting for home runs, which causes a lot of strikeouts. Happ, if he stays within his strengths, has the ability to hit at or near .300 and hit 20 home runs. He will not get there if he hunts homers in each at bat.
Happ’s real strength is spraying the ball to all fields resulting in an above average amount of doubles. If he is capable of cutting his swing down, the home runs will still happen, but he will also have more consistent at-bats.
He is far from a finished product. That said, he is still the closest Cubs prospect to the Major Leagues. With improved discipline and additional defensive work, he will be a mainstay soon enough. The biggest objective with Happ is allowing him to grow in Iowa. Working the kinks out while playing in Iowa is much better for his development that sitting on a bench in Chicago.
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