Confusing Cubs Magic Number Explained
“The Cubs WIN! Magic number is four! No, not exactly, it’s five. Cubs take three of four from the Brewers, they can clinch on Monday! Well, no. They actually can’t clinch until Tuesday at the earliest.”
There has been a lot of confusion around the Chicago Cubs and their magic number. This is understandable, which is why I wanted to clarify what is going on.
The magic number is the amount of wins by the team in first or losses by the team in second it takes for a team to clinch a playoff berth. So if the first place team has a magic number of four and they win, and the second place team loses, the new magic number is two (a game for the win, and a game for the second place team’s loss).
So why has it seemed different for the Cubs?
It really hasn’t been different, it seems that way because the second place team keeps changing. Since the St Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers keep leap frogging each other, the Cubs, in a sense, have a virtual two and a half game magic number.
Since the Brewers have played more games than the Cardinals, but have the same amount of losses, they have a half game lead on St Louis. With the Brewers having Monday off, and since they are in second, the Cubs can only reduce their magic number by one with a win. If the Cardinals are to win on Monday, they pull into a tie with the Brewers.
Here are the scenarios for the Cubs, when and how they can clinch.
If the Cubs win on Monday, the Cardinals would be eliminated and the magic number would be one, over the Brewers. At that point, any Cubs win or Brewers loss would clinch the division. The earliest the Cubs could clinch would be Tuesday.
If the Cardinals win on Monday, the Cubs could still clinch on Tuesday, but it would take a Cubs win (eliminating the Cardinals) and a Brewers loss to Cincinnati.
If the Cardinals win on Monday and Tuesday, the same rules would apply from the last scenario, except bumped a day. This would continue to delay if the Cardinals continue to win.
If the Cardinals sweep, things get crazy. Especially if the Brewers Sweep. The Cubs would go into their last series of the season with a two game lead on both the Cardinals and Brewers. Since Milwaukee and St Louis play each other in their final weekend, one of those teams would eliminate the other – but have a shot at the divisional crown if the Cubs get swept. If the Cardinals win three of the four games, they would be eliminated, but the Brewers would go into that last series with the chance of a divisional tie. Of course the Cubs would have to get swept by the Reds as well.
Armageddon scenario! If either the Brewers or Cardinals win out, and the Cubs lose out, the team that wins their remaining (six or seven games) would win the division. If the Cubs were only able to win one of their remaining seven games, there could be a tie and a single game playoff would determine the divisional winner.
But the only way the Cubs could fail to win the division is if either Milwaukee or the Cardinals were to win out, and the Cubs were to win one or less games the rest of the way.
