This is Crazy, Baez Will Have a Huge Season

I’m not hung up on the 4 home runs in two days or the 3-for-4 performance against the St Louis Cardinals. I’m not talking about his incredible instincts, which were on full display in Milwaukee. I’m not talking about swagger or any of the other comments you hear from guys like Clint Hurdle.

I’m talking about what he’s done, or, well, hasn’t done yet this season. I’m jumping into the numbers, but hopefully not in a way which turns non-saber or non-numbers people off.

I do think numbers, particularly anything that could be considered sabermetrics or just advanced metrics, scares or turns off some fans. If they grasp them or not, they don’t believe that analysis should be made using them. But, most of these numbers help us explain why something happens and help you predict future performance. Basically, they fill in the gaps that traditional stats don’t explain.

A mixed bag

Baez’s stat line is a mixed bag. As of this morning, his slash line is .235/.339/.667. His slugging is assisted by having 83% of his hits being extra-base hits. He leads the club in home runs (5) and triples (2). He also leads the team in little league homers.

Now, these numbers shouldn’t scare anyone. They are traditional and have been on the back of baseball cards for decades.

But even these begin to tell a story. The 104 point difference between AVG and OBP suggests Baez is benefiting from walking, which he’s doing in 10.2% of his plate appearances. This is nearly double his career mark (5.3%).

Now, Baez will never have high unintentional walk numbers, but with him batting eighth on multiple occasions, he has benefited from intentional walks. Currently, Javy has been intentionally walked four times and is the league leader in this category. He is second on the team in total walks (6) and trails Kris Bryant (11). Anytime you are on-base, whether via hit, walk, error, FC, or however – it is a good thing. Baez is (so far) getting on-base at a career-high rate.

Baez’s slugging percentage tells us another story. When he is hitting the ball, it’s for extra bases. Case in point, Javy has 12 total hits on the season and only two have been singles. He has 5 HR, 2 3B, 3 2B on the year. He is hitting the ball a long way, hitting it hard, and his legs and incredible instincts have allowed him to gain the extra base.

So far we have established Baez isn’t hitting much, as his .235 AVG suggests, but when he does he is hitting extra-base hits. He is also benefiting, while it could be due to his early season lineup position, from being walked. The extra-base hits can potentially tell us that he is in store for a big slugging season. Keep in mind, he already has as many triples this season as he had last season.

Saber-what???

Now some numbers that can potentially scare you… But please don’t be scared, it will all make sense soon.

Baez just hasn’t been lucky this season. Luck is a tricky thing in baseball as a lot of people can say I wasn’t lucky, but with a player that has several years under his belt (yes he is still young) we can draw certain conclusions about that player. First conclusion, Javy hits the ball really hard. This is true in most cases, and yes he has hit dribblers also, but by in large, Baez hits the ball extremely hard (averages 93 MPH exit velocity in 2018).

So what does that mean? He usually sees a benefit from hitting the ball hard. When you hit the ball hard, there is less time for fielders to react and position themselves in front of the ball to record an out. Because Javy hits the ball as hard as he does, he has a career BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .326.

BABIP

This is the first time I’m getting into a funky dunky new age stat. Of course, some know exactly what this is, and the story it can tell, and some this is the first time it might be explained. I have talked about BABIP for a while on this site. I like it, I think it can tell you quite a bit about why someone is succeeding or why they are having a rough go at it.

First, let’s try and explain what BABIP is, and a little of what it isn’t. So, and like mentioned above, BABIP is a player’s batting average on balls in play. This doesn’t take into account any strikeouts, walks, hit batter, catcher’s interference, or sacrifice bunts. This also doesn’t take into account home runs. It is built to find what a player’s true average is when the bat strikes a ball, and a fielder has a fair opportunity to field that ball.

Three of the main factors in BABIP are the following (as defined by Fangraphs):

1. Defense
2. Luck
3. Talent

A player may benefit from facing poor defensive teams, or, conversely, they may be hindered by playing good defensive teams. An example is when a player hits a ball hard in a hole, but someone like Javier Baez makes an incredible dive, catches the ball, and records the out.

There is an aspect of luck too. This is when a player hits a ball off the end of the bat and it rests softly in the infield grass. Or when there is a bloop that falls just in front of a right fielder.

The last part is talent, and this is something you get a better picture of in the larger sample sizes as opposed to a smaller window. Someone that hits a ball hard, will typically have a higher BABIP, softer, and their BABIP will likely be lower (yes, this isn’t always true).

The league average BABIP is right around .300. Some years it might run higher, some lower, but over the course of years and years, it will hover around .300. If a player has a BABIP over .300 they are better than the average, lower, then he is below league average.

Looking at Baez. His BABIP in 2018 is .212. This is 88 points below league average. So the 27 times Baez has made contact with the ball, and fielders have had an opportunity to field a ball, he has reached safely at a .212 clip.

So what can we deduct from this, and how do we know?

Well, Baez has been unlucky and it is a small sample. His BABIP is 114 points below his career mark of .326, suggesting the times he has made contact he isn’t finding green grass as often as he normally does. While it is currently affecting his batting average, it isn’t reflecting in his other traditional stats as they are well above career norms.

Being way under his career norm, especially in such a small sample, is explained away as such. It is a small sample. His BABIP suggests he has been the victim of luck, not in his favor. I wish I had the video now, but there was a very nice diving play by Adam Fraizer last week when the Cubs played the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s a play like that which typically go in Baez’s favor, which just didn’t on this occasion. Now that same ball, hit as hard as it was and in the same place as it was, might only be caught in like 15% of the chances. This time it worked against Baez, where it would likely work in his favor the next 10 times.

So, can we just assume we can add 114 points to Baez’s average as he regains his BABIP form? No, that’s not exactly how it works, but we can certainly assume, within very good reason, that he will lift his average just from the fact that balls that typically result in hits off Baez’s bat haven’t worked to his favor so far.

Swing % and Contact %

This is the real promising stat line that is even passing the eye test so far this season. Let me say this first, regardless of what these numbers will show you, Baez will always strike out at a high rate.

Let’s say that again, BAEZ WILL ALWAYS STRIKE OUT AT A HIGH RATE.

With that out of the way, there are some promising data in these numbers. So positive in the fact that it is already changing how opposing pitchers are attacking him. Baez will strike out a lot simply due to him offering at more pitches than most players. In 2018, he is swinging at 58% of the pitches thrown to him, which is about 5% more than his career number. Currently, only Corey Dickerson (58.8%) and Avisail Garcia (63%) swing more often than Baez does. Baez is also sixth in baseball at swinging at pitches out of the strike zone (43.3%).

What separates the Baez of earlier in his career, and the Baez of 2018 is the rate in which he is making contact with that ball (63.6%). Baez has averaged an O-Zone Contact % of 54.4% throughout his career.

Baez has also increased the how often he swings at strikes. Over his entire career, he has offered at a ball in the zone, 68.6% of the time, in 2018 he has offered at strikes 83.6% of the time. He has swung and missed more often (73.8% contact in 2018, career 79.4%) but just by swinging at more pitches in the zone he is hitting more balls, even with a reduced contact percentage.

What all of this points to is, Baez has a better approach at the plate. He isn’t always taking that mammoth swing that creates wind gusts over Lake Michigan. He is recognizing how pitchers are attacking him and adjusting accordingly. When there is a ball on the outside edge, he is still swinging at it, but he is doing so to generate contact and not to hit a 450′ home run.

We have seen on several occasions this season that this statement is true, which should also lend some validity to how we used some advanced metrics here.

Projection

Just using these two factors, it isn’t a stretch to say Baez is in store for a big season. He had a .273/.317/.480 slash line last season, and thus far the eye test and the advanced metrics show he should be in store for a better year in 2018.

Now, Baez has always been a streaky player, and pitchers have found ways to attack him, but just Tuesday night we saw Cardinals pitchers attack Baez inside and he finished with a 3-for-4 performance. If Baez continues to cover the plate as he has, pitches to the outside and to the inside are going to be punished.

It might not seem like it now, especially with most Cubs hitters still hibernating, but a much improved Baez will round out the Cubs lineup throughout the season. With real threats up top in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, the middle stacked with ability in Addison Russell and Willson Contreras, and the bottom end being anchored by Baez, it isn’t crazy to suggest that this team will surpass the number of runs scored in 2017 (822).