Cubs Actually Considering Declining Rizzo’s Option!?
What in the actual what!?
By Sunday evening, the Chicago Cubs will need to make a decision on picking up the options on Jon Lester, Daniel Descalso, and Anthony Rizzo. The way I see it, there’s two easy decisions and one that could cause some pause. The easiest is, declining Descalso’s 2021 option and paying him $1 million to enter free agency.
Lester, as I have discussed, is a little more difficult. The Cubs will come into the 2021 season with two legitimate starters – Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks – then Alec Mills figures into the rotation somewhere. This would leave two rotation spots open if they decline to pick up Lester’s option.
As I have mentioned, it will cost $10 million for the Cubs to part ways with Lester, and $25 million to retain him. The decision tree I’ve suggested is unless the Cubs are willing to turn to Adbert Alzolay, Brailyn Marquez, and maybe Duane Underwood Jr. for those last two rotation spots, then are they going to find a better starting pitcher for less than $15 million (the difference between $25m to pick up Lester and $10m to decline him). Ultimately, especially in the economic environment we expect, Lester’s option will be declined.
When the St. Louis Cardinals parted ways with Kolten Wong, it started to confirm the suspicions that teams will be tightening their budgets. While Cubs fans may not think too much of Wong, in his last three full seasons he has posted 2.2, 2.8, and 3.7 fWAR campaigns. In the shortened 2020 he posted a 1.3 fWAR season – which was a better campaign than Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
I will die on this hill, no one – NO ONE – should use 2020 stats to judge a player. That aside, there is only a 0.8 fWAR difference between Rizzo and Wong over their last three full seasons. So from a completely paper decision, Rizzo could be declined here. But it isn’t a paper decision, there’s much more to the conversation.
The Cubs, if they decide to pick up the option, would be on the hook for $16.5m. If they decide to move on from Rizzo it will cost them $2m.
We really cannot take anything for granted this offseason. There will absolutely be great players that will find themselves out of a job by the end of the weekend, even guys like Rizzo are at risk. When you have a season where the Cubs lost between $175 million to $225 million, and a 2021 season where they continue to project losses over $100 million, non-tendering players like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, of Kyle Schwarber are real possibilities. That also extends to someone like Rizzo.
The problem the Cubs, and other organizations face, is trading a contract above $15m will prove incredibly difficult this offseason or throughout 2021. If they pick up the option with the intention of trading Rizzo (or offer contracts to any arb-eligible players with this intent) there is the extremely real possibility that they will not be able to move that contract. This is why moving on from the player – even without getting something in return – could be the better option for the Cubs and other organizations.
Teams will essentially guess as to their ability to have fans, what capacities of 5,000, 7,500, or 8,000 looks like. Can they invest 2021 after taking hits in 2020 and no real promise of what the future holds? As it was, even the most popular teams saw decreases in attendance in 2018 and 2019, what expectations do they have if there is a full return in 2021?
We all look at the owners of these teams, we look at Tom Ricketts and say they are all billionaires and can withstand these losses. The fact is, maybe they can personally withstand loss but the franchise might not be able to.
This is why there has been so much talk regarding the Cubs reducing payroll to something like $150 million for 2021. Subtracting Rizzo’s $16.5m is one way to help achieve this goal. It might not be the smartest way, from a competitive standpoint, but it is *a* way.
If the Cubs indeed buyout Rizzo, there is almost certainly no chance they tender Bryant or Schwarber. Perhaps there is the chance we see Baez get tendered and maybe we see them continue to discuss a long-term deal, but personally, if Rizzo is declined, then they should dismantle the entire roster.
