2020 Jon Lester – Wasn’t as Bad as You Think

Jon Lester finished the 2020 season on a bad note. Not able to finish four innings while pitching on the Southside, Lester gave up seven runs on six hits, including a homer. His three walks weren’t typical in the three innings, and it seemed to be the conclusion to his time in Chicago. Lester appeared to be emotional as he walked off the mound.

After the game, Lester mentioned that he wasn’t sure what the team’s plans were for him, and they hadn’t told him what might happen in the playoffs.

Well, Tuesday morning David Ross named Lester as the Cubs Game 3 starter (if needed). I couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have go in a closeout, must-win game than Jon Lester. This is a guy that has built an entire career on his ability to win big playoff games. In his nine-year career, he owns a 2.51 playoff ERA with a WHIP just over 1 (1.019). With the Cubs, he’s never given up more than four runs in any playoff game, and 70 innings in 12 games.

Lester finished the 2020 season with a disappointing 5.16 ERA (highest of his career). But, his season wasn’t as bad as what it looks like.

If you simply remove the two starts against the Chicago White Sox, Lester’s ERA shrinks from 5.16 all the way down to 3.38. His WHIP reduces to 1.184 (his best since 2016). That is a very solid season, especially considering he had back-to-back outings of allowing 5 runs after his first game against the White Sox.

Why do I linger on the White Sox? Well, they killed left-handed pitchers in 2020, winning all 14 games against them and

The White Sox went 14-0 vs LH Starters in 2020.

Here is the list:
Kris Bubic – 3x
Matthew Boyd – 2x
Danny Duffy – 2x
Jon Lester – 2x
Rich Hill
Steven Brault
Tyler Alexander
Tarik Skubal
Brett Anderson#RootedInOakland #RepTheTown

— Cody Elias (@Cody_Elias) September 29, 2020

In 2020, the White Sox had a BA 32 points higher verse lefties than righties, OBP 51 points higher, slugging 87 points higher, OPS 138 points higher, they hit homers at a higher rate and scored more often against lefties by nearly 6%.

I would suggest, with Lester’s buyout being $10 million for the 2021 season, perhaps the Cubs just pick up the option on him and bring him back. Of course, this postseason should be factored into this, and he will be the Cubs Game 3 starter (if needed), but when you eliminate that one team (that crushes lefties) maybe this is something to consider. On top of this, the Cubs finances don’t look pretty and if it only costs you $15 million more to keep him, he will be less expensive than signing a free agent pitcher will.

Moving Lester to the fourth spot in the rotation, which should be anchored by Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks, this allows Alec Mills to jump in as well as a potential Adbert Alzolay. Or, they go with one of Mills or Alzolay, and sign a free-agent starter for around $12 and $16 million per season.

Of course, no one knows how well a 37-year-old will perform, but wouldn’t you rather take a $15 million waiver on him than tossing $36 million a season on a pair of guys like Homer Bailey and Garrett Richards?

I would like to see/know where Lester’s confidence is at. After several games this year, Lester mentioned that he either had no confidence or how could he trust his abilities. When a professional athlete starts to question their confidence, that is typically when it is time to hang them up. Lester has been a different animal than most, being able to separate the on-field stuff from his honest assessments. But sometimes your confidence as a professional athlete is what allows you to do what you do successfully. Having confidence that you’re throwing your 90-MPH cutter by a dude that has hit 40 bombs is the only thing that actually allows you to do it.