Cubs 2021 Plan: Keeping the Boyz Together

If you’re reading this, it means Chicago Cubs baseball is officially done for the season. Now the attention and focus is on the 2021 season and what the Cubs will be looking at doing. This is article one of two discussing what the Cubs will do, and how they will move forward in the 2021 offseason, and how they might look for the 2021 season.

Keeping the band together

After a weird 2020 season, and with question marks surrounding the 2021 season, the Cubs should look to keeping the bulk of these guys together. Sure, this will anger a large group of fans, and it likely should. This team has underachieved since the 2017 season.

Not only has there been some underachieving, but the core has also seen injuries derail several of their past three seasons, which has led to those struggles. I don’t care who you are, if you are injured and playing baseball at the big league level, you will not play that well. Anthony Rizzo has dealt with lingering back issues, Javier Baez has dealt with both hand and leg injuries, and their best player, Kris Bryant, has experienced several injuries to arms, shoulders, and knees.

The other issue for this club has been consistency at the leadoff spot. Now, I don’t buy into the need for that typical leadoff hitter. In today’s game, with the stolen base almost irrelevant and bunting virtually a lost art and the reliance on the three-run homer – having a speedy leadoff type isn’t a necessity.

What is a necessity is someone that consistently gets on-base. The Cubs have looked for internal options since Dexter Fowler left to St Louis and have yet to do so. There was the Kyle Schwarber experiment, then they found a little consistency with Ben Zobrist but he missed most of 2019 and is out of baseball now. They attempted Jason Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo, and Ian Happ with no real consistency (outside maybe Rizzo).

The Cubs are also very susceptible to the strikeout. This isn’t unlikely in today’s game, but one through eight (or nine if there is a DH moving forward) there’s only Heyward and Rizzo that strikes out less than 125 times a season.

I don’t put a ton of weight into striking out, and neither do many GMs across baseball, but there is something to be said about having a couple of guys that can put balls in play. This has been the biggest reason behind the team’s inability to hit with RISP.

Keeping the same guys cannot be the plan…

The idea for 2021 is to supplement the lineup. There is a strong indication that 2021 will have a universal DH, and we may have seen the last of pitchers hitting. If you like it or not, or whatever the case, the DH will be the rule moving forward.

So, with the Cubs having a full offseason to prepare for the DH, I believe they will look to transition Schwarber to the full time (or something close to FT) DH. So, they could be in the market for another outfielder. The options would likely be finding a centerfielder and moving Happ to left or finding a LF and just moving Schwarber to DH.

If that is the case, here are a couple of guys the Cubs should focus on in the offseason. But first, what does the 2021 budget look like?

Baseball-Reference shows the Cubs payroll for 2021 as this:

• $87 million committed
• $45 million in options
• $63.3 million in arb costs
• $5.8 million in pre-arb costs
• Est. $156.1 million w/out options and arb
• Est. $199.4 million including options and arb

Don’t expect that option number to reach $45 million, and the arbitration number may not reach $60 million.

Michael Brantley. Yes, Brantley is going to be 34-years-old in 2021, and you can’t gauge how age affects a player accurately. I’ve found that when a player like Brantley loses it, it happens overnight and it isn’t a gradual decline.

But Brantley gives something to the Cubs that they don’t have – a legitimate hitter that doesn’t strikeout. What’s better, the dude just flat out rakes with RISP.

Over Brantley’s career he has hit .319/.391/.461 with RISP over his career. In his 1,430 career plate appearances with RISP, he has only struck out 124 times. For reference, the Cubs struck out 124 times in their 535 PA with RISP this season.

Adding someone like Brantley puts another hitter in the lineup that will help put more balls in play in these situations. More balls in play simply means more runs. If the average BABIP is .300, for every 10 balls in play there should be three hits. Adding someone like Brantley gives the Cubs three guys in the lineup (Rizzo, Heyward, Brantley) that tend to bat the ball.

Brantley isn’t the best defensive player, he isn’t the worst either, but he has DH’d more often in 2020 than he played the field. That had to do more with Kyle Tucker earning a regular spot, and as a 33-yr old the Astros very well could have been preserving Brantley.

The other player I’d suggest in the outfield, we would stay in Houston. George Springer.

This option would fix two areas, consistent play in centerfield AND a consistent leadoff man.

As mentioned above, you don’t need that typical speedster, stolen base guy at the top. But here is a guy that gets on-base a ton, plays the game smart, has pop and isn’t slow, but would add a dimension that the Cubs haven’t had since 2016.

He has a career .379 OBP as the first batter of a game and .366 as the leadoff man (non-inning specific). He doesn’t fix the strikeout issue as mentioned with Brantley, but his 124 Ks per year are 15 less per season than Fowler when he was a Cub (139 Ks per season).

Springer is making $21 million in 2020, and I think you’d be remiss if you thought he would make less in 2021 and beyond. Signing Springer would mean you’re either getting one of your other stars to sign a below-market value deal or you are moving one of those players. The Cubs will have around $35 million to spend before they hit the luxury tax number ($210 million) and they’ll need to fill a couple pitching spots.

The last hitter I would suggest is an old friend. Mr. 3AM.

Tommy La Stella adds a similar dimension that Brantley does as this dude just doesn’t strikeout. In nearly 1,500 plate appearances (1,496) La Stella has gone down on strikes 159 times. Now, he has yet to get more than 360 PA in a single season, and in his only real season which he was likely to play 145+ games, he was hurt and missed half a season.

So there is some concern about his durability over 162, but since he’s gotten the opportunity to really be the guy, he has hit .289/.356/.471 with 40 Ks. Now, I wouldn’t buy into the HR output he had in 2019 (16 in 80 games, pacing over 30 HR on the season). I would expect his overall production to be similar and he’s likely to strikeout less than 60 times with 600 PA, and you just don’t find many productive players that strikeout less than 60 times anymore.

Pitching? Did someone say pitching?

In 2021 the Cubs will likely be without Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, and Jose Quintana. This is $48 million coming off the books in 2021’s offseason (actually $38 million as Lester has a $10 buyout). Keep in mind, Lester can be retained if the Cubs pick up his option. Now, I wouldn’t think it would be horrible to try and retain one of those three and Lester could have a shot at being the guy they retain. Here’s my thought process.

The Cubs are spending $10 million on Lester in 2021 regardless. If he is a Cub or if they buy him out, they’ve already spent $10 million. Now, the question here is, do the Cubs believe they can find more production for $15 million or less on the free agent market. If they don’t, then $15 million for a fourth or fifth starter, with a ton of playoff experience, and veteran leadership is a deal. On top of this, if they are keeping the band together, Lester isn’t a horrible option as you know he’s going to do whatever he can to compete on a daily basis.

If they believe they can find another option, then they will shop.

They won’t be in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes, nor will they be in the next tier of pitchers. The Cubs are likely shopping in the Kevin Gausman, Garrett Richards, maybe Alex Wood or Mike Fiers markets. Of the three, Gausman or Garrett look good to me.

Gausman would be very nice. Here’s a guy that struck out 79 hitters in 59 2/3rds innings. Wood has been beat up in his last two seasons, and really hasn’t been overly impressive since 2017. Fiers, well… if the Cubs are signing Brantley or Springer, I don’t know if he is a good idea.

Garrett Richards is very intriguing. He has had a very good career in Los Angeles, but moving a little more south he hasn’t experienced the same amount of success. Now, I wouldn’t put too much weight in the 2019 results as he only appeared in 10 games. His 2020 could be swayed as it was a short season and any single game, hell, single inning can blow up your ERA.

I’ve said this about Lester. Take away his games against the Chicago White Sox and his ERA is just over 3.

The Cubs also have two young pitchers that will likely press for a starting role in 2021, Adbert Alzolay and perhaps Brailyn Marquez. One would suspect Alec Mills is back in a starting role, and of course Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Would you like a rotation of:

• Yu Darvish
• Kyle Hendricks
• Kevin Gausman
• Adbert Alzolay
• Alec Mills

However they go about the offseason, I wouldn’t look for a ton of spending. Tom Ricketts doesn’t like spending money when he doesn’t need to.