Cubs and Nick Castellanos Report, Let’s Not Get Too Excited

There is a report floating around that comes from Mike Murphy of ESPN 1000. Within the report, Murphy, who I don’t believe has ever broken any news outside new menu items at Browns Chicken, says he hears from inside sources that the Cubs and Castellanos have agreed on terms in principle.

“I’ve heard from inside sources that, ah, Castellanos has agreed in principle to the ah, to signing with the Cubs.” Murphy told WMVP listeners on the Murph and Fred show. “They’ve asked him to wait.”

Ok, we have heard similar things to this in recent offseasons. Just last year there was a report that Bryce Harper was waiting on the Cubs before accepting an offer. So asks like these aren’t unprecedented. But, I just don’t think this one makes too much sense.

The Cubs have salary constraints. Whether this is real or self-created or just an act. The Cubs seem poised to not spend more money than what is already on the books. In fact, there have been many reports that suggest the Cubs need to trade a player before they can even think to bring anyone in.

Currently, the Cubs have a $214 million luxury tax payroll (luxury tax payroll uses AAV and will be different than actual payroll). The 2020 luxury tax threshold will be $208 million. There are reports of Tom Ricketts wanting the club to be under that threshold in 2020, meaning they need to shed at least $6 million in salary. Tom doesn’t like wasting money, especially when there are at least seven digits in the number. His family didn’t become billionaires by handing out millions when it isn’t absolutely necessary.

“If you want to outspend everyone and try to win,” Ricketts said, “you start bumping into the luxury tax, which this year we’ll pay several million dollars to the league, which is just kind of a dead-weight loss that goes to the other teams. And on top of that, if you do it for too long, the fees go up. And if you do it for too much, then you lose draft picks.”

Tom Ricketts speaking to 670 The Score

Castellanos isn’t the only need on this team. With an estimated salary of $14 million, this would mean the Cubs would have to shed $20 million in salary just for Castellanos – and that doesn’t address any of their other holes. This team still needs relief pitching, unless they really believe the band-aid crew of Brandon Morrow, Dan Winkler, Jherel Cotton, and Trevor MeGill will actually perform. Then there is the question of who their fifth starter will be? And even outside of the fifth starter, are the Cubs comfortable going into the season with a rotation of Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, and Jose Quintana?

We also have to consider the players they would need to move just to afford Castellanos.

If they only want to move one player, they are looking at Jon Lester ($25 million AAV), Jason Heyward ($23 million AAV), and Yu Darvish ($21 million AAV). Lester isn’t being traded. Heyward getting moved could help on several levels, but the Cubs would need to wait out the free-agent market before anyone becomes desperate enough to call on him. Darvish, right now, is likely their best pitcher and the Cubs just cannot afford to move him at this point.

So you are looking at moving multiple players in order to open up enough salary to bring Castellanos in AND still have flexibility to make additional moves. Hell, even moving one of the previously mentioned three players, the Cubs would need to move additional players just to field a viable team in 2020.

While I am sure there is interest on both sides to keep Castellanos in Chicago, the Cubs would be forced to almost recreate an entire roster for this to happen. So, honestly… it just isn’t going to happen. Cubs fans, and I’m speaking to all of us right now, we need to get over Nicholas Castellanos, he will not be returning this season.

I don’t think the rumor is real, but I think the message was. Whether you agree with my level of expertise in these scenarios, I have gained a certain level of insight by writing on the Cubs, baseball, and sports for around 10 years. One thing I have become to believe, wholeheartedly, is that free agents need big markets to be involved. This is when the players tend to spark more interest and increase their free-agent value.

I have also noticed that the Cubs and agent, Scott Boras, have had a history of being connected on these sorts of rumors. The Harper rumor last season, the Cubs fed Boras and Jake Arrieta information to help him land a new deal, now this rumor. Perhaps this is an under the table agreement Boras has with the Cubs. Maybe they feel like it could help them with future free agents? Or maybe Boras just knows that the Cubs won’t speak to internet rumors so he can use them as a potential big market team that just happens to be interested in his clients.

I am sure the Cubs have checked in on Castellanos, but if we are being honest with ourselves, and based on the financial handcuffs that are on this organization, they would need to move more than $30 million in salary to acquire him and still fill other needs. This just isn’t going to happen Cubs fans.