Cubs Are Expected to Engage in Extensions for Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner

Well look at that! The Chicago Cubs do know they can negotiate with their current stars for potential extensions! According to The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma, the Cubs are expected to engage in extensions for Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. This was a golden nugget found in a recent article they both contributed on, which is well worth your read.

We have heard rumblings about the Cubs being players in free agency, but since there haven’t been a ton of reports of the Cubs being ready to pounce. There can be fear that some of those early targets start getting courted by other teams, and leave the Cubs in the dust.

Sources: Free agent José Abreu has spoken with #Padres officials this month. Abreu is a top priority for the Padres, who are seeking middle-of-the-order power and have an opening at the DH/1B spot. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 19, 2022

Jose Abreu seemed to be an almost certainty. The Cubs identified him as their “top priority” several weeks ago, but now teams like the Padres are sniffing and making him their priority. I’d love to say any free agent would choose the Cubs, but would you rather join the Cubs or Padres at this point?

But that’s not why you called…

As I sit here in my Obvious Shirts, “IMAGINE GIVING UP ON KRIS BRYANT” shirt, I’m intrigued by the report that the team is looking to extend Happ and Hoerner. It is no secret I was a giant advocate of the team extending Bryant, and through the previous “core” it seemed the Cubs use a “take it or leave it” mentality when negotiating extensions. To be fair, I also believe many agents have stopped negotiating unless there’s an offer in the ballpark (pun, intended?).

What would it take to sign Happ or Nico to an extension? That’s both an easy and difficult question to answer.

Happ Extension

An extension for Happ should be a rather easy one. He has played for the big league team for six years and has had both great, and not so great seasons. In 2020, he was on an MVP-like pace till a foul ball came off the plate awkwardly and clipped his eye. He would finish 2020 slashing .258/.361/.505 with 11 homers in 57-games (COVID shortened season). His 2021 was a bit less desirable, slashing .223/.323/.434 in 148-games.

The club decided to move Happ to left field for the 2022 season, a position which he didn’t fare too well in when he played it in the past. The results, defensively, were fantastic as he took home a Gold Glove. Offensively, while the power numbers weren’t as high as they’ve been in the past, his game was more well rounded. Both of these reasons put Happ into the All Star Game for the first time in his career.

But… there’s the less than desirable Happ seasons. Those, every other year where he underperforms and fans turn on him, years.

Happ has grown on me over the years. Early, I wasn’t his biggest advocate, but lately I’ve grown to appreciate what he brings everyday. I’ve seen his growth over the years, and maybe most important to his growth, I’ve seen him become confidently comfortable being a pro. That has resulted in him gaining 67% of his career fWAR in the past three seasons (6.7 fWAR from 2020-2022).

So, to figure out what an extension for Happ would look like, we will weigh those last three seasons more heavily. The “value” he’s brought was:

• 2020: $15.8 million
• 2021: $9.8 million
• 2022: $27.9 million

Now, it’s rare that a player gets their “value” unless they’re younger and teams really expect them to jump off. I think we know Happ is a player that will hit around .265, will get on base at a .340 clip, and will continue to play solid defense. A few possible comps to Happ are:

• Mark Canha, NYM: 2 yr, $26m
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 7 yr, $22m
• AJ Pollack: 1 yr, $5m

The top end left fielders will certainly earn top end money, but I don’t think anyone is putting Happ in that range (yet?). So you’re really left with some not-so-desirable comps, if you are Ian Happ. Canna might be the most desirable comp for Happ, and if that’s the case he’s starting at around $13 million per. Happ has the advantage of age, so he would likely see something in the five year range.

According to MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Predictions, Happ is due $10.6 million for the 2023 season. MLBTR is typically pretty good at these predictions, so I would expect his salary to be in that range. So, would it be fair to offer Four-Year extension at $13 million per? He would remain a Cub for the next five years (2023 on his arb deal, and the remaining four on the extension). Perhaps give him an opt out after the 2028 season, when his 10-and-5 rights kick in?

Or, does Happ bet on himself?

His 2022 was valued at nearly $28 million. If he puts up another similar season, maybe finds some of his power stroke (24 HR in 2017, 25 in 2021) while keeping his Ks at a reduced rate (23.2% in 2022, 5.5% below his career avg) – can that catapult into a large $18 – $20 million AAV deal? Is the security of having your next five years set at $13 million offset the potential benefit of gaining a four-or-five year deal at $18 million?

Extending Nico

MLBTR suggests Hoerner will earn $2.2 million in 2023. Hoerner isn’t eligible for free agency until the 2026 season. The other two wrinkles in Hoarder’s negotiations – his health and is he a shortstop or a second baseman?

If he is a shortstop, does J.P. Crawford’s Five-Year, $51 million extension make sense? If he’s a second baseman, does Ryan McMahon’s Six-Year, $70 million extension fit? Or… does he fall into a David Fletcher, Five-Year $26 million or Ozzie Albies Seven-Year $35 million range?

Hoerner was just above a league average offensive performer in 2022, finishing the season with a 106 wRC+, however he carries a 4.0 fWAR into the offseason. Fangraphs suggests his play was valued at $31 million in 2022, but we know teams are more willing to pay for offense. With some of his value coming from playing a premium position in SS, but there’s a high potential of him moving, would it be fair to split differences in an extension offer?

I can see $13 million AAVs for Hoerner, regardless of position and I think he ends up getting some sort of longer-term offer. If I’m betting, I put it at eight years (still having three arbitration years remaining). That puts Nico only behind Marcus Semiem (7 yrs, $175m), Jose Altus (7 yrs, $163m), DJ LeMahieu (6 yrs, $90m), and Ketel Marte (5 yrs, $76m). As a second baseman, that isn’t horrible – like at all.

Now, if Hoerner sees himself as a shortstop, that could change quite a bit. He would be playing in a huge pool of salary and could price himself out of the Cubs market if that is the case. While I am certain the Cubs value Hoerner – a lot – they have some versatility in knowing they have several others that can fill the role in the future. Plus, they sure seem interested in upgrading the position in free agency.