Cubs Dodged Bullet Was Always Part of the Plan
News of David Price signing a seven year, $217 M contract with the Boston Red Sox broke just before rush hour on Tuesday, making for an angry commute for Chicago Cubs fans. While the disappointing news that Price won’t be calling Wrigley Field home, the expectation that Zack Greinke will sign with either the LA Dodgers or San Francisco Giants, and Jordan Zimmermann had already signed with the Detroit Tigers… not landing one of these guys is a Cubs dodged bullet that was always in the plan.
This isn’t to say that the Cubs, Theo Epstein, and Jed Hoyer had no interest in signing any of the top free agent pitchers, they were, but they were going to do it on their terms. The team was never going to spend $30 million on a single player, especially over a five, six, or seven year commitment. Since I was the first to really explain what a David Price Contract would look like, it seemed more and more that the team was backing off these top level guys.
The Cubs had always intended to pass on these guys, simply because it didn’t fit with what they intended on doing. This is a young, talented roster, and it is built to contend each and every year. Signing a Price, or Greinke not only would cost a ton in terms of salary, these are players who you couldn’t possibly expect the same production in year five that you expect in year one, and by years six and seven their salary may cause the team to let one of their stars go to free agency.
This is why there are so many rumors surrounding pitchers like Jeff Samardzija or Mike Leake, and acquiring guys like Tyson Ross, Shelby Miller, or Julio Teheran via trade. In fact Gordon Wittenmyer confirmed on WSCR-AM 670 that the Cubs and Braves are seriously talking about Jorge Soler and Julio Teheran.
As Wittenmyer also mentioned, the Cubs budget For player salaries is expected to be in the $130-135 million range, up from the $115 million mark in 2015. That is only a $15 to $20 million increase, and it is becoming very clear that a $30 million salary does not fit in that budget. While the team could shift money that they would have spent from the international market, or reduce money from other baseball related areas, it would still stretch the budget so thin that the Cubs would only be likely to sign one pitcher and not have the flexibility to fill other holes.
Chicago Style Sports has also been reporting the high probability that Jorge Soler is traded away this offseason, and in any trade talks he or a mix of Javier Baez and Starlin Castro are the only MLB ready players (which almost any deal will require) that are expendable and could command a solid pitching return. Gordon again confirmed (paraphrasing) this expectation, and even went further by saying Soler doesn’t posses much value to the Cubs as they are. He is a bad outfielder, has a plus bat, but hasn’t shown that he could stay on the field, and has a lot of value to several other teams.
Which rotation is stronger?
David Price
Jake Arrieta
Jon Lester
Kyle Hendricks
Jason Hammel
Or
Jake Arrieta
Jon Lester
Teheran/Miller/Ross
Jeff Samardzija
Kyle Hendricks
Of course the top three in the first rotation is strong, but the depth of the second — especially with the expectation that Hendricks take a big jump — should prove to be much tougher top to bottom. Additionally, this allows the Cubs to add a much needed center fielder, this allows the Cubs to get better defensively at one of the corner outfield spots, and it allows the Cubs flexibility to get better.
While it sucks to want something (or in this case someone) of high value, be thankful that this Cubs dodged bullet isn’t costing the team for years down the road.
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