Cubs Most Likely to be Traded

The Sunday after the Chicago Cubs were bounced from the NLCS, I woke up, still optimistic for the Cubs future, sipping coffee from my 2016 Chicago Cubs World Series champions mug.

But I also have one eye on what should the Cubs do next, and what will the Cubs do next. I think it was extremely telling listening to Theo Epstein in his season-ending press conference. He dropped some hints that have already come to fruition (Chris Bosio) and should play out over the next couple of months. I know some warn to take what Theo says with a grain of salt, but he has been nothing but transparent since he has been in Chicago, and I don’t believe he will change that up now.

***Start at 7:25 for Theo, but listen to it all for all the feels

In Theo’s end of season conference, he briefly mentioned that if there is a deal that makes the team better, they would consider trading someone from the major league roster. I have covered the likely players to be dealt here, but I wanted to take a more in-depth look at the roster and explain why or why not when proposing Cubs trades.

Cubs Active Roster

Pitchers

Starters
Jake Arrieta SP ~ Free Agent
Kyle Hendricks SP ~ Team control/Arb Eligible
Jon Lester SP ~ Contract till 2021
John Lackey SP ~ Free Agent
Jose Quintana SP ~ Contract till 2020

Relievers
Brian Duensing LHP ~ Free Agent
Carl Edwards Jr RHP ~ Team Control/Pre-arb
Mike Montgomery LHP ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Hector Rondon RHP ~ Team control/Arb Eligible
Pedro Strop RHP ~ Contract till 2019
Justin Wilson LHP ~ Team control/Arb Eligible

Closer
Wade Davis ~ Free Agent

Position Players

Catchers
Willson Contreras ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Alex Avila ~ Free Agent
Rene Rivera ~ Free Agent

Infield
Anthony Rizzo ~ Contract till 2021
Javier Baez ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Ben Zobrist ~ Contract till 2019
Addison Russell ~ Team control/Arb-eligible
Kris Bryant ~ Team control/Arb-eligible
Tommy La Stella ~ Team control/Arb-eligible

Outfield
Albert Almora ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Ian Happ ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Jason Heyward ~ Contract till 2023/Full no trade
Jon Jay ~ Free Agent
Leonys Martin ~ Team control/Arb-eligible
Kyle Schwarber ~ Team control/Pre-Arb

Outlying Roster Notables

Koji Uehara – RHP ~ Free Agent
Justin Grimm – RHP ~ Team control/Arb-eligible
Rob Zastryzny – LHP ~ Team control/Pre-arb
Victor Caratini – C ~ Team control/Pre-arb

The Cubs free agents likely to leave are, Arrieta, Lackey, Davis, Avila, Rivera, and Uehara. I think the Cubs will make a real run at Duensing and Jay, probably getting a deal done with Duensing while Jay leaves for a full-time starting role.

I also believe the Cubs will decline to offer Rondon or Martin a deal, effectively making them free agents.

I had already covered the corresponding moves in a previous post, so I won’t bore you with those details (you are free to click and read that post though). But this will leave the Cubs with anywhere between five and six roster spots that need to be filled. I think Caratini, Zastryzny, Jen-Ho Tseng, and Eddie Butler will step up to the big league roster, but in some of those cases, there isn’t an improvement (or even an equal replacement) in those spots.

While the Cubs will have some money to use to patch these holes, this doesn’t answer how they’ll improve. To really improve I think the team would absolutely need to look towards the trade market. While the Cubs have a ton of talent in the minor leagues, none of the organization’s top 30 prospects will get deals done for high-level talent.

This leaves trading from the big league roster the only real option. Here are the guys that are likely to be rumored in deals.

Javier Baez ~ IF
Addison Russell ~ SS
Albert Almora ~ CF
Ian Happ ~ IF/OF
Kyle Schwarber ~ LF

Using what Theo has said, what Joe Maddon has said, and basic reasoning, this is how I believe things will shake out among this group.

Javier Baez

Let’s be honest, the guy has one of the best baseball minds the Cubs organization has ever seen. His ability to deduce likelihoods and probabilities while running the basepaths, tagging, sliding, and positional placement is incredible. His knack for the dramatic, and absolute smoothness and flair in the game make watching him a lesson every day.

But brutely honest, he has way too many empty at-bats. Overswinging at everything in hopes of hitting balls over the videoboard, and never cutting his swing down to just putting balls into play. Sure the game has changed a lot, and it is near strategic to strikeout in certain situations, but Baez’s overswinging isn’t a strategy, it is ill-advised.

Even saying this, Theo prioritizes defense, and there isn’t another player on the Cubs roster that can go get ’em better than Baez. He is the rare talent that can turn a surely safe baserunner into an out, and usually make it so close the play needs to be reviewed over and over again. Cubs manager Joe Maddon has said since he got here, the Cubs are better with him in the lineup. And although he might make mistakes, they are the ones Joe will live with.

“When it comes to the instinctive part of this game, it’s hard to match him at any age,” Maddon said. “He knows what he’s doing out there, and sometimes he sees too much. And then he tries to do things that he sees that people don’t.

“I’ll take his mistakes. They’re sincere and he’s so able to get rid of bad moments. He’s got that short-term memory that can make him great.”

The reason people look to trade Baez away is due to his insane amount of potential. This is a kid that, if he learns to cut down his swing, can hit 30+ home runs a year. This is also one of the most gifted defensive players of this generation. Cubs fans see this, and I’m sure they have certain biases as well, but immediately think he is expendable. If the Cubs traded Baez they could get a Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer type of pitcher.

Thing is, they can’t. The rest of baseball has seen Baez, and although they are aware he has a lot of maturing and along with that will improve, team’s won’t deal young ace-like pitchers for free-swinging middle infielders.

But regardless… Joe loves Javy. Theo loves defense. There is no other player on the Cubs roster that gives the Cubs the full package that Baez does. Certainly no other can do it at second base, which Baez will see the majority of the starts at in 2018.

Will he be traded? No

Addison Russell

Addison is not going anywhere. He is one of Theo’s prizes and a pillar of the organization. Sure he had some off-field issues, but on the field, he is one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, and adds a unique mix of power and defensively sound play at the shortstop position.

Sure Baez could become the team’s everyday shortstop, and sure Ian Happ could slide into second, but the team is far worse off offensively and defensively. The Cubs are perhaps the strongest team in the middle with Russell and Baez and I expect them to be the double-play duo for the next several years.

Will he be traded? No

Albert Almora

Albert is an interesting one. While I will say that Theo values defense, he truly does, Wrigley Field is one of the leagues easiest centerfields to play, and there isn’t much difference between the Jon Jay or Albert Almora at home.

Almora is a superior defensive player than nearly everyone on the Cubs roster and is in the discussion of best in baseball. The only thing is, he isn’t yet trusted to play every day by Maddon. His splits are pretty ridiculous too.

There was an argument throughout much of the second half that Almora didn’t get enough opportunity to prove himself against righties, but he had 73 more plate appearances and 77 more at-bats against righties than he did against lefties. I believe Almora will be an everyday centerfielder, and I believe that will start in 2018, however, I did believe that to be true in 2017 as well…

Ultimately, to deal Almora you had better be getting better. I don’t know if there is an opportunity for the Cubs to improve themselves significantly enough to make trading Almora a good decision. At least not by himself. If you dealt Almora I think you absolutely need to get both a pitcher AND a centerfielder in return. There has been some talk about Miami’s Christian Yelich or even Kevin Kiermaier from Tampa, but Miami isn’t going to include pitching and Tampa just gave Kiermaier an extension.

Will he be traded? It’s complicated, but likely no

Ian Happ

I will preface this with, I haven’t really been in the Ian Happ camp. Don’t get me wrong, I think he is and will be a fine player, but I just do not trust his bat and definitely do not trust his glove. I think you saw that same sentiment from Joe Maddon in the playoffs when Happ was only given eight at-bats. He was trusted even less in the field.

There were a lot of fans clamoring on about Happ’s 24 home runs, but it was his 35% strikeout rate that I kept looking at. While I don’t curse the strikeout as much as a lot of other fans, you do look for better contact rates as a season goes on, but in September alone Happ struck out in nearly half of his at-bats, clearly getting worse.

But he is a switch-hitter and has shown that he can be very versatile. He played all three outfield positions and second and third base in the infield. Players like him aren’t extremely valued around the league, and organizations with these types of players have had successful seasons. A type of player that will soon become overvalued by baseball executives around the league.

Harnessing his free-swinging mentality will be the trick and something that he and coaches have been attempting to do since his college days. Some scouts had even said the worse thing Happ could do is hit a home run, that is usually followed by several days of slumping.

Besides all of that, Happ has a ton of potential. He is a Theo type of guy. Great head on his shoulders, works incredibly hard to improve, and of course several years of team control. This is highly attractive to other teams, and something organizations will certainly look for when discussing a trade. Without a specific position, and truly just being a luxury type player for the Cubs, I feel he is more valued somewhere else than on the Cubs.

Will he be traded? Yes, almost certainly

Kyle Schwarber

I feel that 2/3rds of the Cubs fanbase has already sent Kyle to an American League team. Consistently rejecting the fact that he can play left field (he was the sixth best defensive left fielder according to UZR/150) and claiming he is destined to be a DH. I do agree with them, somewhat, but I also recognize that left field is one of the easiest positions to learn and Kyle has proven to me that he’s willing to put the work in to be good. He has improved a lot in the field, and with an offseason dedicated to learning the position, instead of strengthening his knee, he should become even better.

Fans are also concerned with the lack of consistent contact from Kyle. They only look at him as a slugger and one that didn’t do much slugging for half a season.

This is short-sighted as he turned things around a lot in the second half. He became a tough out and again showed that he is the type of player you want in your clubhouse. What is more, Theo consistently says the same thing – he wants him in the Cubs clubhouse.

Theo talked a lot about Kyle in his end of year presser, and there wasn’t a single thing said that led me to believe that he would be willing to let him go. From bragging about his leadership capabilities, and explaining that he is expected to be a similar hitter to Anthony Rizzo, I can’t see this front office dealing him at this point. Fans are always quick to flip one way or another on a player.

If a guy hits a couple of homers in a week, he’s the greatest thing ever, and when he strikes out several times in a couple games it’s off to Iowa for him. We all have to remember, Kyle missed an entire year of development and in the meantime fell into some bad habits. This is a guy that every scout gave a 7 hit tool score and expected a high average, high on-base percentage, and a lot of power from.

Trading Kyle at this point would be… near pointless. His value is at an all-time low, and the thought that he is only a DH will alienate half the league. If he is truly destined to play elsewhere, it’s better to allow him to build up his trade value again to get the most out of a deal. There are just way too many indications that Kyle will not be traded this offseason, and he might not ever be dealt.

Will he be traded? Absolutely not

 

*I am aware that Kris Bryant was not on the roster list. There was a bad link which erased him from the list.