How the Cubs are on Pace to Break Franchise Records
The Chicago Cubs wanted to start out fast, but no one could have guessed that they would begin this good. I’m not just talking about the record, which is impressive, but the Cubs are on pace to break franchise records this season.
First, lets talk about runs scored. Currently the Cubs are tied for first in runs with the San Francisco Giants, who by the way, have played in one more game than the Cubs have. The scoring, and lack of opposition’s runs, has this team is on a historic pace as well.
#Cubs run differential of +36 (56-20) is best in franchise history through first 8 games of season since 1885 (+42; 70-28)
— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) April 14, 2016
We have seen a lot of runs already this season, scoring five or more runs on six occasions and nine or more in three of those games. While this team leads the majors in runs, they are doing it in an unconventional way, walks.
The Cubs, while leading the league in runs, are ninth in baseball in doubles (16), 13th in homers (9), and 10th in slugging (.434). Plus, they have only one player with more than one home run (Anthony Rizzo, 2).
So how exactly does a team that isn’t tearing the cover off the ball score so much?
First, timely hitting. When the Cubs are hitting, there are runners on base. This is evidenced by the team having four players in the top 25 in RBI in the National League, all of them pacing to drive in 120 or more RBI. oh, and none of those names is Kris Bryant, and you can expect him to start driving in more runs as the season progresses.
While much of it can be attributed to timely hitting, the Cubs are still only hitting .260 as a team with runners on base, and .255 with runners in scoring position. Which these averages would be right around mid-line when compared to complete season stats, but mid or avg doesn’t explain leaping off the screen production.
So how can we have it both ways? How can the Cubs have timely hitting and it being a reason for their success, but also they are only hitting about average in comparison to the league with runners in scoring position?
They are getting on base. Currently the Cubs lead the league in on base percentage (.381) which is just giving the team more opportunities to score.
Simple, right?
Well sort of. While the Cubs 72 hits on the season ranks them in the middle of the pack in baseball, they certainly are still getting on base. You take those 72 hits, and add an extra 48 baserunners via the walk, and now the Cubs have cluttered the basepaths with 120 runners in just eight games. Pretty legit.
How are they doing it? Plate discipline.
Fangraphs records plate discipline, and the Cubs are currently the third best team in the league at not chasing pitches out of the zone. As a team they have only chased 23.6% of pitches that would be balls, forcing pitchers to come back in the zone to get them out. If you compare this to Cubs teams from 2012 through 2014, they were the eighth worst in all of baseball in this category.
Even last season, Â the Cubs were 11th in baseball at swinging at pitches out of the zone. This is what bringing guys like Jason Heyward (23.2%) and Ben Zobrist (18.7%) into the lineup, as well as having guys like Kris Bryant and Addison Russell mature. These two have severely cut down on swinging outside the zone, Bryant from 30.6% to 23.9% and Russell from 31.4% to 26.0%.
What is even more impressive is team leader, Anthony Rizzo. Not only is he leading the team in home runs (2) and RBI (10), but he has cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone from 33.2% last season to 19.7% this season.
Now, a part of these stats are because pitchers have to come at these hitters to keep from the big innings, but they are still nibbling at corners. Because pitchers are need to be careful, and Cubs hitters are being more selective, opposing pitch tracks are looking a lot like this.
This is a look at Cincinnati Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon’s first inning of work against the Cubs on Wednesday night. He threw a total of 49 pitches, induced just as many swing and misses as hits he gave up. As we look at the chart (borrowed from Brooks Baseball) Simon had to live low and out of the zone, and even then he wasn’t producing many strikes.
This is how the Cubs are facing nearly 163 pitches per game. This is why the Cubs have forced more than 175 pitches in four of their first eight games. And this is why Chicago Cubs games in 2016 will run on average three and a half hours.
Just wait until this team starts hitting home runs!
