CUBS PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION
Just because the pitchers have started throwing in Mesa and the hitters have started hitting bombs toward parked cars, doesn’t mean the front office has stopped working. There are typically many free agent signings and a few trades that still occur in March, how can we forget Dexter’s return. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume the world champs are done making moves. Let’s instead try to figure out how manager Joe Maddon will fill out the line up card, specifically for the guys heading to the mound in the first inning.
Whispers of a six man rotation started when the Cubs were pursuing Tyson Ross, who eventually signed with Texas. This idea of a six man rotation has also been growing given Joe’s emphasis for rest during the regular season. Coming off a seven month 178 game 2016 season, the Cubs have the mind set to prepare for another seven month 170+ game season in 2017. So to add another arm, the Cubs signed Brett Anderson, a second round pick from 2006 with a career ERA of 3.86, but a history of injuries.
Of course we know that Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey will get penciled in on a regular basis. The question is whether it will be Brett Anderson or Mike Montgomery (who earned his first career save in game 7 of the world series) or will it be both?
Rest is a great! You definitely want to head into the playoffs with a well rested pitching staff. However, it is a long season and teams need to make sure they get to the playoffs before worrying about being rested for them.
Let’s look and see exactly what a 6 man rotation would look like. Simple math will give each starting pitcher 27 starts. In 2016 the health was not an issue for the starting rotation:
- Lester 32 starts
- Arrieta 31 starts
- Hendricks 30 starts
- Hammel 30 starts
- Lackey 29 starts
- Montgomery 5 starts
- All others 5 starts (Buchanan, Cahill, Matusz, Warren, Zastryzny)
If the Cubs went to a 6 man format that number would be reduced to 81 starts for the top three starters. Is that extra rest worth sending Anderson and/or Montgomery to the mound as often as three legitimate Cy Young candidates?
I would argue the real rest comes in August and early September, so for me there is no real reason to go to a full time 6 man rotation. I do agree that 30-32 starts for your front end guys is the perfect number to balance rest with being highly competitive. Here is a scenario where a team can incorporate both a 5 man and 6 man rotations. The Cubs begin the season with a 5 man rotation, with extra days off in April (just 24 games), even a 5 man rotation eases the starters into the season. Then after the All-Star break, a 6 man rotation can be implemented as the summer heats up and there are only 4 days off in 60 days.
Combination 5 man and 6 man rotation
- Lester – 31 starts
- Arrieta – 31 starts
- Hendricks – 30 starts
- Lackey – 29 starts
- Anderson – 29 starts
- Montgomery – 12 starts
Now the reason I have Anderson as the 5th starter and Montgomery as the 6th starter is not very complicated. Anderson has started 115 MLB starts and has only come out of the pen 12 times. Meanwhile Montgomery is still transitioning into a starter, with just 23 starts in 65 career regular season games. Montgomery has been very good coming out of the pen, both in situational lefty-lefty match ups and in long relief. Montgomery is definitely being groomed for a full time starting role in 2018. Anderson also is the bigger unknown at this stage, coming off surgery. It makes sense to me that you start with the unknown hoping for the best. Then if Anderson falters or gets injured, you have Montgomery. A guy who is heading into his 3rd year after posting an era of 2.52 in 100 innings.
And while I’m typically not one to think that contracts override performance, Anderson’s contract is filled with incentives based on starts:
- performance bonuses based on starts: $0.5M for 11 GS. $0.75M each for 14, 17 GS. $1M each for 20, 23, 26 GS. $1.5M for 29 GS.
Where GS stands for games started.
Of course this is all theoretical and as I stated at the beginning, don’t count out the front office to make an additional move. While the Cubs appear to have solid starting options, you just never know.
