Cubs Secret Weapon Isn’t Really a Weapon
It may have taken five months, but the Chicago Cubs secret weapon apparently began to expose himself. Long hitting streaks, late game heroics, and even a rare homer had led Cubs fans to believe that their $184 Million man, Jason Heyward, was beginning to show signs of someone about to break out of a season long slump.
The articles upon articles written on how the days off in Colorado had helped Heyward break free from the pressures of signing a huge contract, and performing so underwhelmingly throughout much of his first season in Chicago. There were thoughts that his benching could have a similar effect on him (Heyward) as it did on Starlin Castro in 2015. Afterall, throughout the final month and a half Castro was the Cubs MVP. But after posting a miserable .615 OPS through August 17th, Heyward hasn’t really been… better.
On said date in August, Heyward was the not-so-proud owner of a .225/.304/.313 slash line. Since that time Jason has slashed .271/.283/.373. While he has picked his average up a tick or two (currently is sitting at .231) he’s dropped his OBP and has only hit 4-XBH over that period, resulting in a .656 OPS.
We all got excited when Heyward had a great series in San Diego after his benching, hell we’re guilty of it also, but there isn’t much about his current stretch which makes me believe that he’s an actual threat to any opposing team, yet.
I did however read a remarkable piece by Jared Wyllys over at BP Wrigleyville, where he linked Heyward to Pittsburgh Pirates star, Andrew McCutchen, and their recent success to their recent benchings. In the piece Jared dissects the toe-tap Heyward incorporated this season, which in the likes of Jose Bautista, should have helped unleash Jason’s power. It didn’t, and 2016 has been a well documented mess perhaps due to timing issues caused by it.
He has corrected the toe-tap since, and some of the results (mostly batting average) has improved due to it, but we still aren’t seeing the 6.5 WAR player the Cubs signed to an average of $23 Million over the next eight years. We have however witnessed his ability to be coached, learn from coaching and mistakes, and build off of those lessons – much in the way he did in his lone season in St. Louis. While the level of success might not be what it was as a Cardinal, the recent change is encouraging, to say the least.
But there is still an issue with Heyward which another writer at BP Wrigleyville covered. Ryan Davis highlighted how Jason can improve even more if he improved his pitch selection. Davis writes that Heyward is swinging at more pitches outside of the zone (35%) than ever, even though he’s making more contact on those pitches (75%), he has experienced a huge decline in batting average and a drop-off in hard hit balls.
Here in line is the issue with Heyward. He’s making contact, a lot of it, and although you’re always taught contact is good, his contact is actually detrimental to his approach in 2016. This is a huge reason for Heyward’s inability to hit the ball hard, resulting in weak ground balls which have turned into easy outs.
Davis suggests that Heyward becomes much more selective at the plate, something that would result in much stronger contact. I don’t disagree, but that is a lot to ask of a player this late in a season. Heyward did show the ability to adjust already (removing the toe-tap) but that was mechanical and timing, where pitch selection is mental and a much harder habit to break.
Lifetime Jason swings, a lot, but his 2016 approach has been much more aggressive than years past, and he has even swung at balls more often out of the zone.
Heyward has nearly doubled his offerings at pitches up and out of the zone. All he can really do with these pitches will be weak pop-ups or lazy fly balls. He’s also increased his offerings at pitches away considerably, which lends credence to Davis’ point, and creates a ton of roll over grounders.
To compare against his most recent approach, the data doesn’t show a drastic movement away from his total 2016 approach as a whole.
In fact, this more recent data shows he is swinging more often at pitches all over the strike zone. While his aggressiveness has increased over the past several years – as evidenced by his reduced walk rates and aforementioned higher swing rates – does he pop out as a hitter primed to become more selective?
So what is the value?
Heyward, for as horrific as he’s been offensively – and it’s been very very bad – he is still an overall positive addition to a game evidenced by his 1.0 WAR. He is so good defensively (1.1 dWAR) that, even with his offensive struggles (-0.6 oWAR), he wins games for the Cubs. And I don’t know if fans truly understand that asset.
Heck I’m not sure if I truly understand that.
Sure we know how that gritty middle-infielder can still be valuable because he plays impeccable defense, but the thought of carrying a right fielder that holds that value is… foreign. Your right fielder should be a guy blasting 30 homers and driving in runs by the droves, but the Cubs have that grinder out in right, which is confusing. Especially if that gritty, grind it out guy is going to cash $184 Million in paychecks (probably not that much due to opt outs) from the ballclub.
Heyward might not be the Cubs secret weapon going into the playoffs, which changes an opposing manager’s approach. He might not be that threat that apitcher needs to pitch around late in games. He might not be the guy that causes a manager to pull a starter early for matchup reasons. But as long as he’s playing the strong defense which he’s known for, and even if just a couple balls skip across the outfield grass, he will earn his keep in this year’s playoffs, and help carry the Cubs – albeit in an unconventional way.
