Free Agent Outlook: Cubs Signing Andrew Miller
The Summer and fall of 2016 there was potentially no more effective pitcher in baseball than Andrew Miller. In 70 regular season appearances he had a 1.45 ERA for the New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians. He was the ALCS MVP after pitching 7.2 innings of scoreless baseball in four games. In fact, Miller didn’t give up a run through his first 16 playoff innings, including 4.1 World Series innings.
He was proving firsthand that sometimes your most dominant pitcher might not be a starter, or closer, but that guy that can shutdown offenses in the middle innings.
Then David Ross broke him, hitting a sixth inning home run to center.
Miller followed up 2016 with a a stellar 2017 season, after some early season struggles.
Then 2018 hit, along with his three trips to the DL, which accounted for a 4.24 ERA and a 1.382 WHIP. It marked the first time in four years that Miller posted a WHIP above 0.900. Because of the struggles, and because of the injuries, his demand in free agency might have taken a major hit.
This leads us to the Chicago Cubs, and any potential interest they might have.
The Cubs, maybe more than any team in baseball, understands how much an arm like Miller’s can be. They saw him four times in the 2016 World Series and he mostly dominated them. The next closest guy to Miller (perhaps even better) resides to the north in Milwaukee’s Josh Hader. In Hader’s last 5 IP against the Cubs he struck out 12 of the 17 hitters he faced.
Baseball, like a lot of sports, is a copycat business. You see something that’s successful, and you try it as well.
Now the Cubs don’t have a Miller or Hader-like pitcher on the roster, but they can toss some money at Miller this offseason.
Wait, if the Cubs are signing Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, how can they also afford Andrew Miller?
The Cubs are certainly blowing past the $206 million luxury tax number this offseason. That’s pretty much a given. The question is if they surpass the $40 million additional tax as well, which would result in an additional 42.7% tax on the dollar. So if the Cubs surpass $246 million in salaries they would pay roughly $17 million into the league’s competitive balance tax. The penalty increases to 45% the second season. They would also have their highest first-year player draft pick (rule 4 draft) moved back 10 places.
It is important that the Cubs future proof themselves a bit going forward. Yes, they have TV deal money coming, and they’ve been printing money in Wrigley. A $17 million hit is something they can manage.
Sure, they likely will have it, but spending future money without really knowing what that future money is becomes a dangerous precedent. But maybe, just maybe Miller hurt himself (pun not intended) by being hurt so often in 2018.
If teams are turned off by his injuries, or question if his performance outside of his injuries are a sign of him breaking down. After all, he’s thrown a lot, in high-leverage situations over the past five plus seasons. If there’s a belief that Andrew is breaking down, there could be a huge drop-off and that doesn’t favor a free agent.
Perhaps those questions cause teams to look in different directions when it comes to Miller. If he isn’t that guy that shuts team’s best hitters down for multiple innings, he’s likely not the guy team’s will look for a big multi-year contract. If he’s a guy that’s sitting out there come the GM meetings, and is willing to settle for a one year deal, or one with an option, then why not try and sign him?
A one-year contract could help the Cubs in terms of going over that $40 million threshold for two years in a row. If it helps save them a bit, and if Miller is closer to 2017 Andrew Miller and not 2018 Andrew Miller, then heck, sign him up.
