Has Rizzo Played Himself Out of a Qualifying Offer?

This seems like a weird statement, but as we look towards the next three or more months, it might be true. The 2021 qualifying offer (QO) was a one-year contract for $18.9 million. Before the season, Chicago Cubs first baseman, Anthony Rizzo turned down a deal that would have paid him essentially $16.5m a season. As his play has diminished some, a lot of that due to his back, it is looking more and more like a mistake from Rizzo.

This presents a question, at the end of the season should the Cubs offer Rizzo a QO?

The 2022 number very well could be over $19m, with Rizzo’s 2021, he might need to sign a one-year deal to prove he’s still the hitter he’s always been. Traditionally, a club will present a QO so they can claim a comp draft pick in the next year’s draft. But knowing Rizzo might only fetch a one-year deal, and he probably won’t get $19m elsewhere, will he be more likely to accept?

Why the QO?

Let’s face it, teams don’t expect the player to accept the QO. These players are usually guys that would likely get multi-year deals with much more than the QO. This is why it was pretty rare for players to accept these deals, and teams became comfortable offering them.

But in Rizzo’s case, $19m for another season in Chicago – where he would like to stay anyways – could be more attractive than searching a one-year $12-15m deal to prove it. Honestly, I think he would accept the QO.

So here’s the thing… knowing they can’t cash in on a comp pick if he leaves (of course the new CBA may have a say in this), do they just take any offer for Rizzo at the deadline?

This single decision tree points to the Cubs moving him at the end of the month, right? I don’t want that, but it makes sense, right?

The team isn’t going to allow a mainstay to leave for nothing. The front office is too smart for that. They might decide to roll the dice regardless, and offer him the QO thinking $19m is ok in a one year stretch. This is especially acceptable when they have minimal cash dedicated to 2022.

This is a weird sign of how far they’ve fallen. This is also just a fraction of the tough decisions Jed Hoyer will have in the coming weeks. This is also why I introduced my equation for deciding who to keep around.

Rizzo has been the face of this organization for a long time now. That time could be coming to a close, which is sad. It’s sad because we relate to these guys. We build an emotional bond of sorts to baseball players. We almost feel like we know these guys, even if we don’t. Rizzo has mostly seemed like a stand-up character, and if these are the last weeks, we should applaud him.