Heads will Roll, the 2020 Cubs will be Much Different

From the early lips of Fangraphs to today, the 2019 Chicago Cubs are a complete disappointment. At the start of Spring Training, PECOTA came out with their predictions of a disappointing third-place finish in the National League Central. When those projections came out, we all sat and bashed the ratings from on top of our soapboxes, screaming that computer systems can’t possibly come close to predicting how things will play out.

Now we sit here, after game 156 and having just been eliminated from the NL Central. A four-game set against the St Louis Cardinals was supposed to spark the Cubs and catapult them back into the race. But with the pressures of the Milwaukee Brewers on their heels for the last Wild Card spot, the Cubs literally shit the bed, got swept, and have a better chance of booking tee times in October than playing baseball.

With this incredibly disappointing season almost behind us, the talk about what is next will become a huge conversation piece among Cubs fans.

Next Cubs Manager

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone at this point. The likelihood of Joe Maddon returning as Cubs manager is slim and none. While this is something that the front office has been planning for more than a year, Theo Epstein seemed to damn any chances of Maddon returning during a recent interview on WSCR The Score, “inability to show up and play winning baseball, for the whole to be as good as the sum of the parts.”

So while team performance is absolutely the biggest reason behind any potential change, another is salary demands. With a plethora of recent new manager’s that have shown success being signed at incredible values, the days of paying skippers $5 million might be over. With nearly 400 wins as a Cubs and that shiny World Series title, Maddon will certainly demand a higher salary than most.

The next reason is the digression of young core guys. Guys like Albert Almora and Ian Happ stick out. Almora seemed to be the heir to the CF gap that was left when Dexter Fowler left. His defense seemed to be better than most in baseball, and offensively he was that guy in the lineup willing to slap balls to all fields when down in counts. He owned a .289 batting average in his first three seasons in Chicago. 2019 came along and he was bad from the jump, slashing .241/.274/.389 and it seems that he’s taken his poor offensive performance into center as he’s having his worst defensive season as well.

Happ went from a big power guy in 2017, to someone that fans complained about when he started in 2018, to playing much of 2019 in the minors.

Then finally, there are his decisions. Game management decisions. While there isn’t an exact stat or anything you can point to that directly spells out the manager’s effectiveness. Or what the outcome would be if another decision was made. We do have instances, especially this year, where Joe’s decisions immediately back-fired. Having Pedro Strop, who isn’t a closer, close for the first month or so of the season. Even when he was struggling, when his fastball showed more than a 4 MPH drop in velocity, he was trotted out there to close out games.

Just about every leadoff hitter decision that wasn’t Anthony Rizzo. Yes, I know some will complain about Rizzo leading off, but we have learned a lot about better lineup construction and having your best hitter leadoff is a very good strategy.

But the biggest issue people have is the management of the pitching staff. Whether Joe was pulling pitchers too early, letting some guys go too long, or turning to guys that were performing horribly. It seemed anytime there was a move that could be questioned made, it would backfire and Maddon would get crucified. All of this was especially true in 2019, but there were many examples throughout his Cubs career.

But, Joe isn’t the biggest reason this team has underperformed. His tenure as Cubs manager has been one of the best eras in Cubs baseball. He is absolutely a part of that. He was a giant reason the Cubs competed in 2015. He was a major reason the team won the World Series in 2016. He has been a huge reason the club has been competitive as long as they have been. But whether you are in the camp that says he’s cost the Cubs games or that he is a reason they’ve won so much – you’re both right. Since there isn’t a stat that specifically points to decisions equalling wins and losses, I like to point to Pythagorean W-L.

This stat, created by Bill James, suggests the team’s record based on runs scored and runs against. This stat will show how lucky or unlucky the team was when there’s a variance in record, but can also measure other impacts like manager decisions. The 2019 Cubs record, according to the Pythagorean W-L is 88-67, and their actual record is 82-73.

In 2018 the Cubs record was 95-65, while the Pythagorean W-L had them at 94-69. 2017, 92-70 (actual) and 93-69 (Pythagorean). 2016, 103-58 (actual) and 107-54 (Pythagorean). 2015, 97-65 (actual) and 90-72 (Pythagorean).

Over his career with the Cubs, the Cubs have lost only two more games than their Pythagorean W-L suggests. This could be for his decisions, it could be due to luck, or just baseball.

Regardless, it is highly unlikely that he will be back. In fact, I think his salary demands will likely keep him out of managing in 2020, but would be perfect for a TV crew somewhere (hello MLB Network).

So who will manage the team in 2020?

There is a lot of talk about Joe Girardi, but he will not be the manager in 2020. Not only will he demand a bigger salary than other candidates on the market – he just might be the worst option available.

I don’t know if fans want Girardi because he used to be a Cub and he won a title in New York? The facts of his managerial career were, he was fired from the Marlins job for not getting along with ownership and management. Then he wasn’t extended in New York because he wasn’t able to communicate with the younger generation of players, and as Brian Cashman put it, they needed someone who could interject a “healthy discourse” between players regardless of age differences.

So… he doesn’t get along with management and he doesn’t get along with players. Tell me again why he would be a good fit?

The other name that is put out there is David Ross. With the team squandering their division lead and then Wild Card lead these past few weeks, the rumors have gotten a lot stronger. Personally, I think the Cubs will try to pry Ross out of retirement. I think they might interview him. But, I don’t know if Ross really wants to do it. He might not want to leave the comforts of retirement and family.

He was asked to be more involved with the team last season and didn’t accept. Perhaps he wasn’t interested or perhaps he didn’t want to be the guy getting prepped for Joe’s job. Ross was also asked to interview for the Minnesota Twins job. But, while Ross gives half warm answers when pressed on his future as a big-league manager, it seems that he will eventually get a chance somewhere.

“I’ll tell you, my heart definitely itches to get into the dugout at times and to be part of something special that I’ve been a part of before, so there’s a push/pull for sure. It’s gonna have to be a unique opportunity to pull me away from my family and the sacrifices you make to be in the major leagues.”

Ross knows that leading a team is a ton of work. More work than you put in as a player, more commitments than he currently has, and would impact his ability to be there for his family. He also knows that, “I don’t do things halfway, I go all-in.” This will certainly need to be a special opportunity for him to give up the freedom he has in retirement.

The Cubs job is that special job. He has strong ties in Chicago. He has strong ties with the players in Chicago. But… those just might be the reasons he doesn’t make sense here in Chicago.

To say he befriended guys like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant and Jason Heyward and Jon Lester is an understatement. Will that friendship cause him to not put Heyward in the lineup if he’s not producing? Will he be able to have hard conversations with Rizzo if he needs more out of him? Will he be able to suggest mechanical changes to Bryant when he is slumping? Will he be able to walk out to the mound in a close game and pull the ball from Lester’s hands?

My gut says he can. Here’s an interaction that Bryant and Ross had during the spring of 2015.

Bryant
My first encounter with Rossy was in spring training last year. I hit like nine home runs in spring training, and Rossy comes up to me and says, “Hey, KB. How many home runs you got?”

I’m like, “Nine.”

And he says, “No you don’t. You got zero!”

Ross
Haha, yeah. The year before, you hit what, 43 in the minor leagues, KB?

Bryant
Yeah. Forty-three.

Ross
So I said, “How many homers did you hit last year?”

He says, “Forty-three.”

And I’m barking at him like, “No you didn’t! Minor leagues don’t count. You had zero in the Show. None!”

Bryant
I was like, Yeeeeeah … maybe I shouldn’t talk to this guy anymore.

There are many more stories of how Ross put a boot in the ass of guys around the clubhouse when he needed to. He was also the first guy to put his arm around someone when they struggled. This is leadership, he has the ability to lead. When backup catchers typically have the fastest track to a big-league managerial seat, ones that show his level of leadership also tend to be great in that spot.

I really like Ross as a potential managerial option. Hopefully, he likes the idea of it even more.

The latest addition to the potential manager list will be current bench coach, Mark Loretta. Loretta seemed to be a front office mole from the jump, and while that has a negative connotation, I don’t mean it to be. There are reports that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer met with Maddon before the season started and told him there would be major changes if the team didn’t perform up to expectations.

Cubs brass informed Maddon at a meeting before the year that if the team didn’t perform to hopes that there might well be big changes. Presumably that meant not just the manager.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) September 22, 2019

Loretta was the front office’s guy, and not someone Maddon wanted. There was also the mention that Loretta was the lone “coach” with a direct line to Theo and Jed.

“Joe is such a great teacher and he knows so much about the game. To get him involved with the players even more so and have them do some one-on-one time is key. So I think Jed (Hoyer), Theo (Epstein) and Joe, what they’re asking me to do is be that liaison between Joe and the players and the office, quite frankly as well, because in this day and age there’s so much integration between a front office and staff and players. I’m just really going to forge as good of relationships as I can with the players. Sometimes players feel more comfortable going to a coach than a manager just because of the manager’s seat. So I understand that. I’ll also be involved more so on the hitting side and the infield side because that’s sort of my strengths.”

Roster

The Cubs have put themselves in a difficult spot with regard to the roster. While I don’t buy, and you shouldn’t buy, any budgetary limitations, this isn’t the most flexible roster in baseball. They do have around $56 million coming off the books this offseason, so there is some money from the current roster to spend. There are other factors involved as well, like the luxury tax threshold increasing to $208 million, which increases the second tier to $228-$248 and the third tier to $249 million.

The figures above don’t include increases due to arbitration, and Baseball-Reference assumes the Cubs will have around $201 million committed before they add a single free agent.

The players with the biggest impact on the budget are the same names that they’ve been for a while. Heyward, Lester, and Yu Darvish. The strange twist is, the end of 2019 it looks like Darvish is a steal at $22 million a season, while Lester looks to be a dud at $20 million. But, we always knew the Cubs were paying upfront for the chance at greatness with Lester, and these last couple seasons could prove to be less than ideal.

Another guy that the jury needs to be out on is Craig Kimbrel. While he has been the best closer of this era of baseball and should have a plaque in Cooperstown awaiting him once he hangs it up, he hasn’t been good for about 14 months. The thought of a full offseason to work out, the idea that he will have a real spring training with the club, and the idea that he will be more secure in what and where and how things move forward, both professionally and personally, should help him regain form.

Offensively, this team will likely look similar to Opening Day 2019. The team has it’s guys, Rizzo, Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Heyward. There might be a change in center field, and likely some change at second base (ahem, Nico Hoerner), but there aren’t many changes that seem appropriate.

But that is likely why the team has been underperforming for the past two seasons. Sean Sears, not only an NBC Sports guy but genuinely a good dude, mentioned on his podcast that other managers have told media that the Cubs are the easiest team to gameplan for. The biggest reason, hitting with two-strikes.

The team has had a HORRIBLE approach when down in the count. When the league average is around .165 in two-strike counts, the Cubs only have two guys that are above league average in two-strike situations (Rizzo and Baez).

This said the team is going to have to change their approach with two-strikes. Remember that Washington Nationals series, where it seemed the Nats found a way to punch a hit through in seemingly every two-strike count? That’s an approach they need to adopt. The issue is, most players don’t just learn a better two-strike approach overnight – if they ever do at all. This is something Maddon has openly criticized the team on for the past four years and there were two guys that changed anything.

This is where the team just might look to change some of the roster around. Finding guys that can bring a new and better two-strike approach. This will absolutely mean some guys might not be back.

Just who will be gone?

A lot of fans point to Bryant as a guy they would like to trade, but he is one of the most unlikely players to get dealt. Facts remain, for a franchise that has looked for a third baseman since Ron Santo, Bryant can have every bit as good, if not better a career than Santo had. They will also point to the fear of him potentially not re-signing or the fact that they don’t think he is worth whatever contract he might end up getting.

Here’s the thing, since he was promoted to the big leagues, he has lead all National League players in fWAR. That includes guys like Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and the Cubs own, Anthony Rizzo. If those guys are getting deals like $300 million, $260 million or annual salaries of $22 to $30 million, Bryant has played himself into that range.

But this doesn’t answer the question on if he will be back in 2020, and my answer is, there isn’t a team in baseball that has enough to send the Cubs in return for him. A trade would absolutely need to return an MLB-ready third baseman. They will then need several can’t miss prospects, with some of them having future All-Star caliber talent. What team is able to give that up? When you answer that question, then I will come around to the idea of trading him.

Rizzo isn’t going anywhere. There is some value in a potential Baez trade, and only because he could come back and have another .900+ OPS season in 2020, or he could fall back a bit and put up a .780 OPS type of season. Neither would (or should) surprise anyone.

I think Kyle Schwarber could be shopped, but I don’t know if the Cubs can find a deal that piques their interest enough. But in fairness, this front office likely holds Schwarber to a higher esteem than any other front office would. Perhaps that is due to some intangibles that he does bring off the field, or maybe this is because he is just one of their guys.

I do not believe this front office offers Addison Russell salary arbitration this offseason. Not only did he provide little impact in 2019, but there is also just too much baggage with him. He won’t be traded, he just won’t be offered arbitration (well, maybe he will be, but at a low rate which he could decline). Plus, I think the Cubs need to commit to Nico Hoerner, and with David Bote on a new deal, he will likely be the main backup infielder.

Heyward’s contract still will be hard to move. I am sure we will hear rumors about San Francisco again, and San Diego could be a potential fit, but I don’t know if Heyward would like to play for Maddon (if he goes there).

I think Albert Almora could be on the block, but I don’t know how much they can receive for him. His 2019 was a train wreck, and while you could always fall back on his defense, he was a poor defensive center fielder in 2019 (-2.5 150/UZR and -4 DRS). I do believe without a doubt, either Almora or Ian Happ will be dealt.

Now the big one. I think the organization will shop Willson Contreras this offseason. I don’t love the idea, but I think that they can more easily move Contreras and get full value for him. I have also heard that the front office could be more willing to move on from Contreras as his longevity in the position is potentially at risk.

From a pitching perspective, Cole Hamels will be gone, and there are already rumors of him ending his career in Philadelphia. Lester isn’t going anywhere. Quintana’s option will be picked up. Kyle Hendricks isn’t going anywhere. Yu Darvish will be a Cub for several more seasons.

From the pen, Craig Kimbrel will be a Cub in 2020. Pedro Strop will likely not be re-signed. Steve Cishek is a free agent, but I would like to see him return. The Cubs will rely heavily on guys like Rowan Wick, Kyle Ryan, and Brad Wieck. Maybe 2020 is when Duane Underwood Jr. finally stays in the bigs. A guy I can see being traded is Tyler Chatwood. While he was much improved in 2019, his salary is an attractive move, and another team can look at him as either a nice end of the rotation guy or up-and-coming reliever.

I also think that the Cubs might decide to strip down a bit this offseason, jump back below the luxury tax threshold to reset that penalty, and then come back in 2021 or later as a last hurrah in this window. If there is a new manager, maybe this gives them a chance to semi-build a team to that person’s strengths?

Is the front office safe?

Yes. They are safe in 2020, but I don’t think the Boston Red Sox did any front office any favors when they fired Dave Dombrowski. This could spell bad things for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. The Ricketts can come out this week and relieve them of their duties, and that precedent has been set.

I also believe the front office understands this. If they are in control this offseason (likely) then you will see a new Theo-mode, one that we might not have seen before. I’m not suggesting that he will become undisciplined, but I do think he will be more aggressive than we have seen him. Perhaps even more so than he was during the 2012-2014 seasons.

Playoffs in 2020?

Gosh, like in 2018, 2019, and likely 2020… going into the season you would have to say the Cubs have the most talented roster. But… can the paper champs become legitimate champs?

The Milwaukee Brewers will still get better. The St Louis Cardinals will be better. The Pittsburgh Pirates will improve. The Cincinnati Reds have done a lot to get better in 2020 and beyond. I don’t know if I can sit here on September 23rd and say this will be a playoff team in 2020. In October of 2015 I knew the Cubs would compete for a championship in 2016. In the spring of 2016, I knew they would win a championship. I’m no longer confident that this team should be a favorite to win anything in 2020.

This is ok to say. Windows in professional sports don’t stay open forever. In professional sports, if you’re on top, you have 29 other teams that gun for you. The Central caught up to the Cubs quicker than a lot of people thought they would. This offseason will likely spell out what their competitive window looks like over the next two seasons.