HOF Hopes of Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa

Tomorrow we all find out who will and who will not be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Of the 30 names on the 2022 ballot, none are more controversial than those of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa. Each of the four has several reasons to not expect to find themselves standing on the stage in Cooperstown in July.

Reputation isn’t the only reason there’s particular interest in this foursome. While media fights, potential PED use, and often being coined bad teammates follow most all these four, it is also the last year each of them are on the HOF ballot. For once guaranteed Hall of Fame players, all the mentioned reasons have kept them from the party thus far, and a split fanbase continues to fight over their worthiness.

Barry Bonds

Once thought of as the best hitter to ever do it, Bonds’ reputation has always had some tarnish to it. For years, even before any potential PED allegations, he was considered one of the best, however, he was unable to reciprocate his performance in the playoffs.

While postseason performance historically has been the indicator of greatness, we have backed away from that as we started recognizing the Dan Marino’s and Ernie Banks of the world belong in the greats conversations – even without rings. So while the lack of jewelry on Barry Lamar’s ring finger is notable, the biggest knock that followed his career was from the media.

Bonds simply didn’t like talking to reporters, for the most part, so he was short when he did give them time and rarely gave them anything of value. And thus, when the media wasn’t getting what they wanted from him, they slandered his name among their colleagues. He was hard to deal with, defiant, and coined a bad teammate in turn. While I cannot speak to how good of a teammate he was (Jeff Kent, would you care to fill in the blanks?) it is widely assumed that the Bonds portrait painted in the media wasn’t as bad as reality.

Regardless, that reputation followed him wherever he went. So much so that this is one of baseball’s worst-kept secrets. So, while the media and Bonds had a strained relationship, the fractures were so well known that it probably cancels out the effect it may have had when it came to HOF ballots.

What has really hindered Bonds, and many of the athletes on this list, was his involvement in BALCO and the PED issues of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Bonds’ career can be separated into two Hall of Fame halves, the first, assumingly clean, and the second was with the assistance of performance enhancers. In fact, if you split Bonds’ career in half, here’s how it looks:

If the 1986-96 performance was by Joe Random, he would be a viable option one day. If the second half was from another randomized character, we would likely talk about putting him in the day he retired. Also, the day he retired would likely be a nationally televised celebration.

Currently, by the last count, Bonds has received just over 77% of the vote, meaning he would be enshrined. However, only about 46% of the vote has been counted thus far (at least those ballots that are public) so things are pretty up in the air still.

Over the past several years, as voters have shared their votes on Twitter, they have been scrutinized over those left off the ballot. Anyone holding out hope for Bonds, continue to cross your fingers. It is very likely that many of the remaining private ballots left Barry off their list.

Roger Clemens

Here is another candidate that had two Hall of Fame careers, but I don’t think I need to tell you that. Clemens was in a group of what will likely be the last 300-game winners in baseball. Some of that is due to a drop of innings among MLB starters, and some of it is due to the baseball community not putting weight in Win/Loss record and thus managers are more likely to pull pitchers earlier.

Clemens became a prickly pear after allegations began. It should (or maybe I feel I should) be noted, Clemens has never tested positive, never flunked a test, and never admitted to using any performance enhancers. It is widely suspected that he has taken them, it was reported that his name was included on the Mitchell Report, he played in an era that was riddled with use, and after what seemed to be a natural physical decline, he became better than ever.

Clemens does have 76% of the vote as of now and finished 2021s votes with 65%. In looking at the numbers, Clemens had just over 73% of the public votes (pre-results) and only 44% of the private votes. So, again, this suggests that a lot of voters are either apprehensive of sharing their votes when leaving certain individuals off.

I *think* Bonds has a better chance of earning enshrinement this year, but I *believe* Clemens won’t have that same fate. However, his last-ditch effort to be more interactive on Twitter may not go unnoticed.

New York Yankee fans might not ever forget the now-infamous Suzy Waldman line, “Roger Clemens is in George’s box.” Well, now New York fans, and others, can check out NY Sports Betting and see if his 1,044 Yankee strikeouts will get him in.

Curt Schilling

Of everyone on the list, Curt Schilling likely has the worst potential claim. Outside his strikeouts (3,116) he doesn’t have any other convincing regular season stats that suggest he is a Hall of Fame player. But, then add his postseason stat line, going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 career games, one idiotic bloody sock, and all of a sudden he looks a bit better.

Now, Schilling did become a complete asshat after his career, which saw him “canceled” and fired. Now, I don’t think political stances should keep one that has proven to be a Hall of Fame player out of the Hall. I do think that a borderline HOF player will likely be kept out because of his off-the-field antics.

Schilling currently has 61% of the public vote, he finished 2021 with 72%. He was added to 65% of the private ballots and 74% of the public ones. I might be on the wrong side of the Schilling argument (as I don’t believe he was a HOF player) but we will see if his support increases over the coming days.

Sammy Sosa

Us Chicago Cubs fans have a weird relationship with Samuel Peralta Sosa. For so many of us, Sosa was the reason to watch Cubs games on WGN in the afternoon. The spark of superstardom was apparent the first time he stepped onto Wrigley Field. With a fresh haircut, jewelry, and a swagger we hadn’t seen, Sosa brought fans to the Cubs and is largely responsible for the resurgence of MLB after the strike.

Sosa belted 545 homers for the Cubs and 609 in his career and currently sits number nine all time. He is the only player in MLB history to hit more than 60 homers in three seasons. He was a perennial all-star, was famous for reacting to the fans in the right-field bleachers, and Chicago was his town after Michael Jordan hung up the sneaks.

But, using a corked bat, the PED accusations, and walking out on the team put a permanent black eye on Sosa’s Cubs’ legacy. His reputation was so tarnished that current Cubs ownership will not have a conversation about bringing him back unless he admits his “wrong-doings” during his playing days.

For many fans between the ages of 25 and 35, Sosa is Cubs baseball to them. He was the guy that brought them to the club, and caused them to spend countless hundreds on tickets, souvenirs, hats, and other merchandise. While he hasn’t been a Cub since 2004, there is still an untold amount of dollars coming into the organization that should be credited to Sosa – that goes for the entire league as well.

Many fans have compared Sosa and David Ortiz. Two players that were mixed up in PEDs (allegedly), however, Ortiz has been a media darling while Sosa has mostly disappeared since his retirement. If HOF voting were to end right now, with the public votes we are aware of, Ortiz would be comfortably in, while Sosa would be far from it. I put some stock into this theory, however, Alex Rodriguez is another media darling, showing up in the ESPN broadcast booth and jumping on any sports show willing to ask. But, he is trending to only have about 40% of the public vote.

On January 24th, Sosa has 25% of the vote (already eliminated from potential induction based on the tracker). In 2021 he had 21% of the public, pre-results tally, and finished with 18% of the vote. If a similar trend continues, he will miss out on his final year of eligibility.

What’s next?

If any of these players fail to earn enshrinement, they will have a second chance in 2022 to earn enshrinement. Today’s Game Era Committee “shall refer to the electorate that considers retired Major League Baseball players no longer eligible for election by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), along with managers, umpires and executives, whose greatest contributions to the game were realized from the 1988-2016 era.”

This committee is made up of Hall of Fame members, executives, national media members (16 members in total) and will vote twice every five years.

Now, there is a chance that one, or more, are not included on the ballot since there can only be 10 players listed that had their most memorable moments between the years of 1988 and 2007. This isn’t just limited to players, as managers, umpires, and executives are included in the eligibility.

This year, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa will get a crack, as well as Bruce Bochy, Lou Piniella, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, and Jim Leyland. The ballot could also have Joe West and Gerry Davis added to the mix.

So, hope isn’t lost if these four don’t earn enshrinement through the BBWAA voting, but for some, it will be incredibly disappointing if they don’t.