Hoyer: Trading Bryant is Not Fait Accompli

This offseason it has appeared that a few absolutes would happen. One, the Cubs will absolutely cut payroll, with a goal of being around $150-170 million in 2021. Two, core players were going to be gone to help usher in a more productive offense. Three, Kris Bryant will be traded.

So far, two of those things have happened. The Cubs have reduced payroll (Cots has them at $141m right now) by allowing guys like Jon Lester ($20m in 2020), Tyler Chatwood ($13m), and Jose Quintana ($11.5m) leave in free agency. They then made several tough decisions by non-tendering Albert Almora ($1.575m) and a couple of other quality players. Then they non-tendered a core member in Kyle Schwarber ($7m).

The one item that hasn’t happened yet has been the trade of Bryant. This, of course, would take a while to materialize. Not only are most teams looking to reduce payroll in 2021, but with no real answers on when the season will start or if fans (or how many fans) will be allowed in the ballpark, trading for a player that will earn near $20 million in 2021 is a difficult task.

We have heard that teams are interested, and we have even heard some potential returns for Bryant. Heck, seemingly every NL East team has an interest in Bryant’s services. But, when speaking during baseball’s Winter Meetings, Cubs new president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, let us know that the Cubs don’t have to trade Bryant. In fact, he “absolutely” sees how Bryant continues to be a Cub in 2021.

“I don’t think it should be treated as a fait accompli that [a trade is] going to happen.” Hoyer said at the Winter Meetings.

Nor should it. I get a lot of pushback when I suggest Bryant is the best player that this club has seen in a very long time, and if he continued his play would retire as the most accomplished Chicago Cub ever. But, when I say that, I am suggesting that Bryant plays as he has in 2015, 16, 17, and 19. I say that assuming there are no performance-limiting injuries, something Bryant had been able to escape for his entire life until the 2018 season.

“I think that’s been treated as a certainty,” he said. “Listen, Kris is a great player — he’s a superstar player — that obviously didn’t have the year last year that he had hoped. But when you look at our offense, there were several other players that had similar struggles.

“What do we expect from him in ’21? We expect far more of the normal Kris Bryant-type performance than we got last year,” Hoyer said at the Winter Meetings.

Gordon Wittenmyer NBC Sports

If the Cubs were to keep Bryant in 2021, regardless of what happens the following season, you absolutely should expect a typical Bryant season. Playing a 162-game schedule, you should expect 30ish HR and a slash line around .285/.385/.525. This is what a healthy Kris Bryant does.

To believe Bryant is closer to the 2020 version than he is to what he’s consistently done throughout his career is plain dumb (for lack of a better term). I’ve displayed numerous times on this site how when healthy Bryant has performed better post 2017, than he has ever performed before. I do completely ignore 2020s results as it was just too easy to manipulate numbers in such a small sample.

How many times have we seen someone come out and have a great first half, only to fall off severely in the second half. Or visa versa. Or, how many times has a player been called up in September and killed it, only to not hit his weight in their first full season?

A lot of people like to discredit small samples because waiting for a large enough size doesn’t allow them to build their narrative. This was the case in 2020. If you feel Bryant was as bad as his 2020 results, Javier Baez, Christian Yelich, Jose Altuve, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo, J.D. Martinez, Carlos Santana, Yoan Moncada, Francisco Lindor, and a host of other star-level players have something to say to you. I see Cubs fans make every excuse in the book for Baez not doing well in 2020 – has a hard time playing without fans, couldn’t review video between at-bats – but haven’t given the same courtesy to Bryant.

I would absolutely expect Bryant to perform at, or near MVP levels in each and every season he plays. He did so in 2016, 2017, and was on pace to do so in 2018. He bounced back after injury, got his feet under him in 2019, and again performed like an MVP level player for most of that season as well.

I would hope that the Cubs do retain Bryant in 2021, which should come as no surprise, and find a way to make a long-term deal work out. While that still may prove difficult (especially since the Cubs have never approached Bryant or his agent Scott Boras with an actual extension) there is a chance to still see Bryant here long-term.

Now, of course this could be posturing. With the current state of baseball’s economics, and the forementioned issues yet to be addressed, Hoyer might be adding this concept to the fray in a way to improve any potential offers – or to even get someone to offer them a package.

Teams do this all the time. If they aren’t pleased with the potential return, they will throw out there, “we would love to go into the season with player xyz still on the roster.” While I think the Cubs front office would love to go into the 2021 season with Bryant (can’t say the same about ownership), I think they continue to accomplish the organizational goal of retooling if they are able to move Bryant this winter.

There is also the idea that February might become the new December. Where most player moves happened in December’s, especially around the Winter Meetings, recent years that has pushed out a bit further. This season, without the known items like if fans will be around or when a season can start teams may push the “start” of their offseason back to February or even later.

If the Cubs move Bryant, they will likely wait to find out what happens in the Nolan Arenado market, and Francisco Lindor. Both these players present interesting studies in a potential Bryant trade. Arenado, a third baseman, earns quite a few dollars every year so it would be interesting to see how a market reacts to his potential trade. Lindor is in the final year of his control, which could show potential return for the Cubs and Bryant.

Ultimately, whatever happens there will be pissed fans in Chicago. There are many that want Bryant gone, like three years ago. There are some that want Bryant to stay, but if the return is worth it they can rationalize it. There are those who believe the Cubs should center the next five to eight years around Bryant. Hopefully the Cubs do what’s best for everyone involved.