In Ryan Pace Fashion, He’s Bidding Against Himself
There certainly is a lot of industry buzz going around with the Chicago Bears and their pursuit of a franchise QB. That hunt started with the Bears trying to fix the error made in the 2017 draft, by trying to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans. Then there were some rumors about being interested in Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr and Carson Wentz, and every potential quarterback that is on the market.
January 5th: Deshaun Watson to Bears rumors
— Brendan Sugrue (@BrendanSugrue) February 5, 2021
January 28th: Jimmy G to Bears rumors
January 29th: Matthew Stafford to Bears rumors
February 2nd: Derek Carr to Bears rumors
February 5th: Carson Wentz to Bears rumors
I can't do this for another 7 weeks, guys.
Of course the unicorn in the group is Watson. After his 2020 season, Watson has the second highest QB Rating in NFL history (104.5). He threw for 4,823 yards, 33 TD and 7 INT for a team that had no other weapons besides Watson. He’s the real deal.
The problem with Watson is, the Texans are fully ready to call his bluff and do whatever they can to not trade him. Well… except for actually listen to him and consider his input when making decisions…
Knowing this, Watson will likely remain a Texan for a long while. I anticipate his hold out to last well into training camp and possibly bleed into the season. As of now, people close to Watson suggest he is willing to hold out as long as possible to force a trade, if that actually happens is yet to be seen. Nonetheless, if a team does acquire Watson in trade it will not happen for months, and the Bears front office is scared of possibly missing out on a QB.
Which is why many believe the Bears have moved on from any Watson ideas.
That led the Bears to testing other options. There was talk with the Detroit Lions about Matthew Stafford, before he was traded to the Rams. Jared Goff was also on the list, but of course he was moved to Detroit in that deal.
The next QB on the list is Carr.
Carr isn’t the jump off the stat sheet guy that some other QBs on the list are, but he might be the best long ball passer in the NFL right now. With Allen Robinson likely leaving, this might leave Darnell Mooney as the top receiver on the Bears roster. His game is the deep game and like chicken and Chardonnay this would be a nice pairing. Sure, he isn’t the Wagyu beef and Shiraz pairing Bears fans have been waiting for, but he’s adequate and can help the Bears defense be a better unit by limiting unnecessary turnovers (170:71 TD:INT ratio). He (Carr) has also indicated the Bears as a possible fit.
So, he could be a nice consolation prize.
There is industry belief that the Bears are in the lead for a potential Wentz trade. In fact, as of Friday morning there was belief that the Bears had a winning bid in for the Philadelphia Eagles starting QB.
As of 30 mins ago the #Bears have the top offer out for Carson Wentz. Unless another team comes over the top Wentz will be headed to Chicago. Bigger offer than most have expected. Bidding war will do that.
— Brandon Robinson (@BRobNFL) February 5, 2021
Wentz would represent a large portion of the Bears salary cap, and they most certainly would need to move defensive starters in any deal. While they could get by moving someone from their linebacker core, there has been some smoke about the team discussing Kyle Fuller in some of these moves. I might be in a minority, but I feel Fuller is every bit as important to the Bears defense as Khalil Mack is. His coverage skills helps the rest of the defense do their jobs, and gives the pass rush that much more time to reach a QB.
But, that’s not why you called. We’re talking about QBs, and Wentz.
We should be weary of Wentz and his health. Afterall, the Nick Foles story never happens if Wentz was a healthy QB. He also hasn’t met his early success and just a change of scenery (to a place that hasn’t been very QB friendly) isn’t really something that ever works.
But would Wentz actually be an improvement? Doesn’t appear so.
I crunched the numbers and used advanced stats to compare Carson Wentz to #Bears QBs Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles in 2020.
— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) February 5, 2021
If you want the Bears to give up significant draft capital for Wentz, you should probably strongly reconsider. pic.twitter.com/pOucSEax6k
He hasn’t been better than either Mitch Trubisky or Foles. He hasn’t been as accurate as either, makes more bad decisions with the football than either of the Bears 2020 QBs, throws more interceptions, spends more time in the pocket (with this offensive line, eek!), and takes more sacks than either Mitch or Foles.
What makes this very typically the Bears… some in the industry believe they are actively bidding against themselves.
Bears might be competing with themselves in this market…just saying…
— Michael Lombardi (@mlombardiNFL) February 5, 2021
This wouldn’t be the first time Pace has been fooled into bidding against himself for a QB. He was caught doing this when he traded up, one spot, to draft Mitch Trubisky. If you recall, the 49ers suggested there was at least one other team talking to them about their pick. The Bears, fearing the chance of losing their choice (which in foresight and hindsight is ridiculous). So the Bears gave up their first, third, and a 2018 fourth round pick to move up one spot to draft Trubisky.
There are reports of the Indianapolis Colts being interested in Wentz, but to what extent? There was also a report that the Bears interest in Wentz was overblown.
So maybe no one really knows what is going on with the Bears pursuit?
Personally, I would suggest that the Bears hold out and wait for the Texans front office to understand they need to trade Watson. Once that happens, most of the QB movement will have been completed. So the Texans pool to potential suitors will be much smaller.
The Bears will still have draft picks to move, they can also move Foles providing the Texans a legitimate QB to start the season with. The Bears won’t be in a bidding war (except again, with themselves) and the potential price that Houston wants will decrease with fewer possibilities on the table.
An elite QB will always get a handsome ransom, but waiting just might play to the Bears favor in this case. For a franchise that has been mostly garbage in the Super Bowl era – BECAUSE OF THE QB POSITION – they have a chance of correcting that error this year.
