Incredible Anyone Hits Kyle Hendricks Changeup

The most incredible thing I’ve witnessed on a baseball field was a good change-up. I’m not talking about just a slower version of a fastball, I’m talking a pitch moving six inches, dropping off the table, and leaving the batter to recontemplate their life. These pitches are unhittable, and Kyle Hendricks changeup is the most devastating in the game today.

It is important to have a hard fastball. A mid-90’s heater is the baseball equivalent to a college degree in the workforce. If you throw 95 MPH, you can get an interview.

Kyle doesn’t have that. Perhaps he could dial it up there if you went max effort, but he’s found a niche without it. That niche has allowed him to step up to the big boy table, and Hendricks changeup is putting his name in the best in the game conversations.

We hear people talk about how good his change-up is, but what does that really mean? In the past there wasn’t a tool to look to, or a stat to measure, but thanks to Brooks Baseball we can now. When we plug Kyle Hendricks into the search bar the results are incredible, to say the least.

Kyle Hendricks Changeup

When throwing the change in 2016, Kyle was able to produce a 24% whiff rate. Meaning, in 25% of the times a batter swings it results in a swing and miss. This doesn’t tell the entire story though. Batters as a whole batted .137 against the Hendricks changeup. In retrospect, teammate Jake Arrieta’s slider was voted as the best pitch in baseball, yet yielded a .221 BA in 2016.

This isn’t just remarkable, it is damn near unbelievable.

But why is this pitch so dangerous? We’ll discuss.

Movement

Kyle gets a ridiculous amount of movement on his change, both in towards a right handed hitter, as well as downward.

This movement, paired with his ability to hide the pitch through a flawless delivery, makes the pitch near impossible to immediately recognize. Essentially, batters have to guess that he is going to throw a change-up based on situational hitting, and previous knowledge of how he attacks hitters in similar situations.

Hendricks changeup actually got better as the season went on. A tired arm could explain things, but he pitched with slightly more velocity later in the season. During April, May, and June Kyle averaged 80.35 MPH on his change-up, and 80.82 MPH in the months after. In fact, Hendricks’ fastball increase by about half a mile over this same period as well.

As Hendricks increased speed and the movement increase, his results became more and more favorable. Even more impressive, of the 214 change-ups Hendricks threw in 2016, only 40 resulted in a line drive while more than double that (92) resulted in a ground ball. His change-up had a huge role in Kyle’s ability to keep the fat part of the bat off of the ball, and his ERA low throughout the season.

Control

What good is a nasty change up, if you couldn’t control the pitch? … … …

Seriously? The answer is not very. Not very good at all. Luckily for Hendricks he was one of the best in baseball in terms of control. At least according to a new stat which Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge, and Harry Pavlidis at Baseball Prospectus created, Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA). Here’s a short definition.

“[CSAA is] a measure of how many called strikes the player in question creates for his team. In the case of catchers, we isolate the effects of the pitcher, umpire, and other situational factors which allows us to identify how many additional called strikes the catcher is generating, above or below average.

 

For pitchers, we can apply a similar methodology—controlling for the catcher, umpire, etc. to identify the additional called strikes created by the pitcher. CSAA is calculated only on taken pitches, an important nuance. A pitch must be taken in order to be eligible to be called a strike by the umpire, so while CS Prob looks at all pitches, CSAA only takes into account pitches where the outcome is left up to the umpire.”

Coincidently, or perhaps not because I am of course attempting to sell the audience on the pure nastiness of his change, Kyle ranked fourth in all of baseball. Now to fully understand CSAA, I recommend reading the above article (seriously). What I would like for you to take away is, the pitchers with good command pitch to the 30% called strike zones. The absolute best, Hendricks included, live in the 10% called strike zone.

Kyle’s zone chart shows this isn’t a new development either. Especially when looking at Kyle’s playoff performance. In the 2016 playoffs, 144 of Kyle’s 317 pitches were in what Baseball Prospectus considers the 10% zone.

This is remarkable, and the additional proof is in his results, giving up four earned runs in his 25 – 1/3 innings.

Bottom line

The Kyle Hendricks changeup is becoming one of the most dangerous two-strike pitches in baseball. From movement, to control, and command – no batter wants to face the Hendricks changeup. Oh, and those rare occasions that a batter does connect, the Cubs defense smothers the ball quickly.

A lot of people have compared Kyle Hendricks to Greg Maddux, and I get it, I do. Thing is, Hendricks has been more successful and an earlier age than Maddux ever was. I’m not saying he’ll surpass Maddux, or finish out a Hall of Fame career – but I certainly love watching video like this 30 plus times a year.

And we all hope to see this a lot in 2017 and beyond.