Jake: To be or not to be

Look, I love Jake Arrieta. I love him. I picked him up for my fantasy team in the summer of 2014 and he was an amazing keeper for me. He went back into the fantasy draft pool this past season and I was leery of drafting him, so he went to another team. When he struggled, I eventually got him back in a trade because I believed in Jake. He rewarded my faith by putting up a great 2nd half of the season. But will I keep him next year? Should the Chicago Cubs bring him back?

I remember seeing him shutout the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2015 wild card game, which broke a streak of 9 straight playoff losses (2003, 2007, and 2008). No bullpen needed that game. Jake went the distance. I remember sitting in the bleachers with my wife and 4 daughters when he won his 20th game in 2015. He threw a complete game shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers. During that game, my dad and brother texted me that they should take him out to save his arm. The Cubs only had a 4-0 lead, but they were worried about his pitch count. Jake threw 123 pitches in that game (85 strikes). He struck out 11, walked 1, and gave up only 3 hits. He was dominant. High on the thrill of being at the game, I told them not to worry. Jake was invincible. His 2nd half that season certainly looked that way. He threw 107.33 innings in the 2nd half with a 0.75 ERA. 0.75!!!! You’ll likely never see that again. Jake was phenomenal.

But perhaps my brother and dad were right. Though Jake did throw 9 shutout innings in that first playoff game, he didn’t look great in his next playoff games that year (6.75 ERA, which was insane for a guy whose ERA was 0.75 in the 2nd half). Jake even admitted after the playoffs to feeling fatigued in those games. Can you blame him? He threw 156 innings the year prior (his highest ever), and then including the playoffs he threw 248.67 innings!

I suppose what happened next was inevitable. In 2016, Jake was good, but very mortal. His xFIP went up from 2.61 to 3.68 and his ERA went up from 1.77 to 3.10. His strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate nearly doubled, his homeruns allowed/9 innings nearly doubled, his groundball rate dropped, and he threw 32 less innings. In 2017, he pitched much like 2016 again except his groundball rate plummeted and his HR/Flyball rate increased which nearly doubled his HR allowed rate again. His xFIP increased again to 4.11 and his ERA increased to 3.53. His average fastball velocity has also decreased from 94.6 mph (in 2015) to 93.7 (in 2016) to to 92.1 this past year.

“But wait!” you say. “Didn’t Jake turn things around in the 2nd half this year?” Did he? His ERA would say yes as he had a 1.73 ERA in July and August. Do you know what his xFIP was for those two months? Try 4.26. Ouch! In fact, his best xFIP month was April (3.46). The rest of the season? 3.95, 4.41, 4.47, 4.05, and 4.85 in September. Does that sound like an ace to you? More like an innings eater at best. Sadly, Jake wasn’t even that. His IP has gone from 229 to 197 to 168, and that’s not just due to fewer starts. His average IP/start? It went from 6.9 to 6.4 to 5.6 in the last 3 years.

“But he was good in the playoffs this year!” Yes, he had a 0.84 ERA in his two playoff starts. But was he good or just lucky? He walked 8.4/9 innings in those 2 starts, so it’s no surprise that his xFIP was 4.81 in the playoffs last year. That 0.84 ERA may fool some GMs into giving him a bunch of money but not me.

Like I said, I love Jake, and maybe the trends above won’t continue. But the smart money says it won’t reverse either. At the age of 31, I’d expect more of the same from Jake, not an improvement. And a guy who only throws 5.6 innings/start with an xFIP over 4 just doesn’t have much value. Certainly nowhere near what someone will pay him. The Cubs can get similar production much cheaper.

Sorry Jake, it’s just not to be.