JakeOzlay: Creating the Next Cubs Ace

When the Chicago Cubs signed Jake Arrieta there was some mixed reactions. Some were happy in that nostalgic way and hoped that returning to Chicago would help recreate that spark he had when he shoved it down NL hitter’s throats. There were also those that looked at his 4.36 ERA over the past three seasons and declared this a horrible move at best.

I can look at this as a measured risk. Looking at Arrieta’s performance over the past three years, he wasn’t as bad as his ERA indicates. Over those three years, Jake was one of three pitchers in baseball to allow 50% or more of all batted balls to be ground balls. His xFIP in 2020 was significantly lower than his ERA (4.38), suggesting that his issues were more out of his control than in it. His babip against (batting average on balls in play, outside of home runs) was well above league average the last two seasons and at the highest points in his entire career (.316 and .333, league average is .300 and Jake’s typical season is .277).

These all point to two conclusions, Arrieta was a mostly unlucky pitcher or he has lost his stuff.

Smarter people than I will be able to tell you for certain which is the case. In looking at his pitch selection and velocity, Arrieta has relied on his sinker much more often since the 2015 season than he did before it. This was about the time he lost the feel for his “slutter” (slider/cutter mix which was rated as the hardest pitch to hit in baseball). In 2020 he began to rely more on the “slider” (Fangraphs doesn’t really suggest if it was a slider or a slutter) again.

His velocity is down almost a full two miles per hour on almost all pitches besides his slider since his 2016 season. We do have to remember, Jake sets up on the far right-side of the rubber and pitches almost across his body creating a different viewing angle for hitters. When his velocity was higher, that adds even more to a hitter’s decision-making process on whether to swing or not. If the pitch is slower, that means a hitter has more time to see the pitch and decide, and that weird angle isn’t as big of an issue any longer.

But if Jake is closer to the Cubs old-Jake or if he is closer to the Philly-Jake isn’t going to be his biggest impact. No, it is his impact on Adbert Alzolay.

We’ve already seen numerous pictures coming out with Arrieta coaching up the young Alzolay.

Young grasshopper. pic.twitter.com/NavnXic3Uo

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) February 19, 2021

It seems like the two have built a pretty strong bond, similar to the one John Lackey, Jon Lester, and Arrieta formed during Jake’s first go-around. It is through those bonds where the older, veteran shares invaluable knowledge with the younger player. It could be simple, little things like how to attack a certain hitter in a situation or how to manage life in the big leagues. These pieces of advice help bridge a connection from baseball’s past to its present, but also helps a young player learn how to baseball and be successful at the big league level.

Jake has seen something in Adbert that he believes in. This is a belief that has been echoed throughout the Cubs organization since last summer when Alzolay was working in the alternate site in South Bend. There were many people within the Cubs organization that saw Alzolay as a relief pitcher with a ceiling of being a back-end starter at best. Now, after that time in South Bend and adding pitches to his repertoire, Adbert’s ceiling is as high as any prospect’s ceiling could be. As Bryan Smith, writer for Bleacher Nation and is one of (if not the best) blogger following Cubs prospects, suggests the slider Alzolay added might be the most important thing that has happened to the Cubs in 2020.

Every swinging strikeout Adbert Alzolay (@adbert29) got with his new slider in 2020. 14 in all. Truly one of the most exciting and important things for the Cubs future that happened this year. Could watch this all day. pic.twitter.com/T9jzFaydOs

— Cubs Prospects – Bryan Smith (@cubprospects) November 5, 2020

Now, working hand-in-hand with what was considered a slider-master in Arrieta, the sky should be the limit for this young starter.

“From the get-go, I can tell that he [Alzolay] wants it,” Arrieta said during a Zoom discussion. “There’s no doubt in my mind. He’s focused. He asks a lot of questions.”

MLB Dot Com

The affection is reciprocated. Arrieta’s presence and attitude are something Alzolay aspires for. That, and of course a little hardware doesn’t hurt either.

“You see that mentality,” Alzolay said. “I want to have that with me, because the guy’s a Cy Young winner for a reason. It just doesn’t come because you are lucky or something like that. To me, it’s just trying to pick up the thought process that those guys have.”

MLB Dot Com

Alzolay has become a lot more confident, outspoken, and seems to have a “I’m the big dog” attitude, which stemmed from his 2020 season. He started it out being critical of the income players at alternate sites were receiving. That led to him being criticized and ultimately he posted an apology as he explained that he didn’t fully understand the compensation they were earning. Now, no professional athlete ever gets the benefit of the doubt when they discuss pay.

But, his confidence seems to have remained strong. He pushed through that, was raved about in camp, then was the biggest highlight for the Cubs down the stretch. Now, he’s matching wits with one of the more confident players to come through the Cubs organizations in a long, long time.

Whatever helps keep your hope alive, just know, it doesn't matter. @Cubs https://t.co/bJDN1wP0tS

— Jake Arrieta (@JArrieta34) October 4, 2015

That was in response to a now-deleted tweet from a Pirates’ fan that tweeted, “Be ready for the sea of black #BlackOut #BUCN #crowdIsGoingToEatYoualive #walkTheplank” Not many professional athletes have a cojones to clap-back to a fan on Twitter before a do-or-die playoff game. But, that’s who Arrieta is.

Now, that attitude, improvement, and assortment of pitches has put Alzolay smack-dab in the middle of the Cubs rotation. His development just might be the most important factor in the next three to five years of Cubs baseball. If he lives up to some of the hype that the Cubs organization has put on him, some of the hype Arrieta has bestowed upon him, and some of the hype a lot of Cubs reporters and bloggers are placing on him – then that gives the Cubs a ton of financial leeway with their current core and future free agents.

I don’t want to overstate this, and I don’t want to understate it, but Alzolay has the ability to become a top one or two starters for this team. This is important as he brings some fire behind his fastball, something Kyle Hendricks or the rest of the rotation seemingly lacks. So his development and this season is a huge one for the Cubs and Alzolay. If he succeeds, we have to give a ton of credit to the Church of Jake.