Jed Talk: Darvish, Contreras, GM Search

(The first part of the article is a running synopsis of the conversation)

Jed Hoyer spoke to the press on Wednesday morning, discussing all things Chicago Cubs, the Yu Darvish trade, the potential to trade Willson Contreras, and the GM search. While listening, he is very good at controlling the narrative. Maybe not as good as Theo Epstein is/was, but he’s selling the story very well. What is the story? That the window is done.

Jed Hoyer spoke to the press on Wednesday morning, discussing all things Chicago Cubs, the Yu Darvish trade, the potential to trade Willson Contreras, and the GM search. While listening, he is very good at controlling the narrative. Maybe not as good as Theo Epstein is/was, but he’s selling the story very well. What is the story? That the window is done.

Much of the comments from Jed’s presser was about the last window closing. As he speaks to free agency, moving Darvish, and how they are managing this offseason – Jed admits that now isn’t the time to add to the roster. He adds they won’t start to add players until they (the Cubs) feel that the roster is ready to compete again. This roster, right now, is not able to compete.

He doesn’t suggest that they won’t try to compete, and they will be active this winter to supplement today’s roster.

Jed was also adamant that they aren’t just willy nilly trading players on this roster. They will listen, and if there is something that makes sense it will be with an eye to the future. That is what the Darvish trade was. While Hoyer was proud that they were able to be aggressive in trading for Darvish, this was about evaluating the Cubs personnel and the real opportunity to win. They are looking to the future, and this trade is about looking to the future.

“I don’t think spending money on a free agent this season is the right way to attack their problems,” Hoyer talking about trying to add to win now while addressing holes on the roster.

Yu Darvish

When trading Darvish, Jed is excited about Zach Davies and the four prospects they received. He stresses that just because the young kids are several years from the big leagues, that has nothing to do with when they plan to compete for championships again.

To be fair with Hoyer, and to call out myself and anyone else that has graded this trade so far, it is unfair to write the story on what those kids can become. Spending some time digging into Reginald Preciado will make you giddy. Here is a switch-hitting, smooth defender that smacks line drives all over the field. The best part is his high contact rates, something this current Cubs roster lacks. He will likely crack the top 100 this season and many have written how he will jump past current Cubs prospect, Ed Howard, as the team’s top-rated SS in the system.

The one thing we can pick nits about is the statement that this wasn’t financially motivated. While Hoyer shot down any serious rumors of Willson Contreras being shopped if their moves weren’t financially motivated and we being done with an eye on the future, wouldn’t you look to move Contreras? He would provide the biggest return of anyone on the roster and you would open your potential partner list much wider than when you shop just Darvish.

Hoyer had mentioned that Darvish’s return to grace here in Chicago should be the standard that everyone speaks to. When he arrived, he unseated fan favorite, Jake Arrieta. Then had a rough go to start the 2018 season, there was the injury which no one seemed to accurately diagnose, and then he missed most of that year.

Fans all wanted him out of town, they called him all sorts of horrible things, but almost all of them hated the idea of trading him this winter. While performance was a big reason for this, Hoyer attributed his success as becoming comfortable here. San Diego might be the only city more beautiful than Chicago, I suspect he will be very comfortable there.

Willson Contreras trade

So, Hoyer proclaimed that the report of the Cubs shopping Contreras is “fictional” (which I alluded to earlier). Only thing is, reporters have confirmed that the Cubs have been, all winter long, talking to teams about Willson Contreras. As Jesse Rogers suggests, we could be splitting hairs/words (suggesting they aren’t “seriously shopping” him) but his name has come up from Cubs beat reporters as well as several reporters for other teams across baseball.

When your name continues to come up from someone that covers other teams, you are being shopped. This is how I was able to determine that Darvish was being shopped several weeks back, and it is usually a sign that something more than what Hoyer admits to is happening.

Now, this is what confuses me a bit. Hoyer suggests that any move the Cubs make will be with an eye on the future. Contreras is young enough (28) that he can be a huge piece to a competitive team in 2022, 2023, or 2024. If that is the case, keep him around as a bridge guy to that next team. Or, you move him because that next window is shaping up to be from like 2023 through 2030ish.

Hoyer “says” they aren’t moving him, but reporters have confirmed they are (at least passively) trying to move him.

New General Manager

Right now, things are status quo for the Cubs. Hoyer will absolutely hire a GM, but does not think it will be in the 2021 season.

Hoyer doubled-down on the idea that any hire will be from outside the organization. This is good as for a very long time the Cubs (or Hoyer and most of the old Theo crew) have had one mentality on how things should be run. While, sure, there are differing opinions on some things, but they have all worked together for such a long time that they will naturally develop similar thought processes.

Understandably, Hoyer wants to get to know the next GM of the Chicago Cubs. He wants to have dinner with the next GM, and get to know their family. Understanding that we are still in the middle of a pandemic, it wouldn’t be prudent for him to do such things. And thus, there will not be a GM in the 2021 season.

Free agency

While the Cubs have appeared to be a team that is only interested in subtraction this offseason… Hoyer confirms that the Cubs will be active in free agency, this winter!

But… not at the top end…

Hoyer does not believe that this offseason is the year to play in the top-end of the free-agent market. They will look to fill some holes in the roster, but they aren’t going to spend big to bring in anyone that will excite most fans.

Hoyer did tell everyone that the Cubs will return to that type of team, and they will hunt the best players in free agency again. Right now just isn’t the time to do so. He made sure to mention that the Cubs have spent three of the past four seasons above the league’s luxury tax. They could return to that type of team and that type of payroll, but right now isn’t the time as they are focused on the future.

My take on this is, the Cubs might be willing to shop in that middle-tier of MLB free agency. While they aren’t spending a ton of money, they will have some flexibility (more than previous seasons) to be able to add. They will not be in a George Springer or Michael Brantley market, but luckily for the Cubs, the middle of the market is bigger than it might have ever been.

Outlook

I wouldn’t expect many of the Cubs veterans to be around for the end of the season. If the Cubs can’t put together a winning roster in the next two seasons, why have Kris Bryant, Antony Rizzo, Javier Baez, or Willson Contreras? Hoyer suggests that the Cubs inability to sign extensions with these guys, to extend the window, is a big reason we sit here today.

“We have not been able to etend that window. That’s a fact. So with that, we know that we’re coming to the end of this group of players. A wildly successful, franchise-changing run with this group of players – we’re coming to an end,” Hoyer told reporters on his Zoom press conference.

This is a sad realization for those that put in so much for this group. But it certainly is a message to fans, players, and other teams that the swap meet is open.

I think if the Cubs brass is looking to the future, the current roster, and fans should start looking there too. So what does that mean? Well…

Remember back in the year 2014? When Cubs fans would watch a Cubs game but live tweet about what was happening in Tennessee or Iowa? It is part of that, we have to start watching guys like Brailyn Marquez and his development. We have to start setting up Google Alerts for Brennan Davis home runs. Maybe follow the Cubs 100+ MPH Radar page on Twitter (which I don’t think exists, but maybe it should).

We should expect to see our favorites moved to other organizations. Sure, a few might stick around, but don’t expect to buy a Championship T-Shirt anytime in the next four or more years. We have to start rooting for players to do well in April, May, and June so the front office can get the most from them in July. Sounds a lot like 2012-2014, doesn’t it?

Welcome back to 2012, Cubs fans.