Is there a Joe Maddon Conspiracy?
An interesting story that was discussed on Mully and Haugh on 670 The Score, was that the Joe Maddon rumors about his job being in jeopardy was leaked by Joe’s people. This is a very interesting idea, and both makes sense, and doesn’t, equally.
Bob Nightengale in USA Today mentioned Joe is on the hot seat, and could be removed if the Cubs didn’t go on a long playoff run. Now, say what you will about Nightengale, but he has been a professional throughout his career. In case you haven’t seen or heard this info, here is the Nightengale piece.
“Joe Maddon helped lead the Chicago Cubs to the Holy Grail of sports, with a consistent level of success they haven’t seen in a century, but there are whispers his job could be in jeopardy if they don’t play deep into October.”
Now this rumor is certainly celebrated in the moronic circles of social media where they proclaim with pride that the Cubs won the World Series in spite of Joe. These areas of social media remind me of a run down town’s diner where the cook is chain-smoking Marlboro’s, there’s a three inch layer of grease everywhere, our waitress has a manlier voice than you do, and the tweaker in the corner keeps pushing the return change knob on the payphone. Maybe they’re good people with good intentions, but you don’t want to stay very long at all.
I digress…
Why would the Cubs be interested in firing their most successful manager in 100 years? That’s something, I believe, is getting lost in the context of the article.
Most experts will tell you a manager only makes the difference in about 2-5 games a season. The romantic in me disagrees, but logically it probably makes sense. If this is the case, the Cubs are way overpaying for those couple games when compared to the rest of the league.
Here’s what I mean. If a manager only influences five games at most, then let’s just assume the league’s lowest salaries for managers is the baseline pay and anything over that is for those five games. Even if you adjust for experience, tenure, or arranging dress-up days, the Cubs pay Joe more for those five games than any other team pays their manager. He’s virtually getting $5.2 million (he’s getting paid $6 million) for those games.
Now one thought is, Joe is proven and worth it. He’s established his ability through his managerial experience in both Tampa and Chicago. When he was signed on as Cubs skipper no one even batted an eye at the deal Joe received. Maybe fans were caught up in Joe-mania, or in the world of Mike Scioscia, Joe Torre, and Bruce Bochy – this was just what great managers were paid.
But the landscape has changed a bit. Similar to the NFL’s adjusted thought on running backs, an good to average manager could be replaceable. This is still a different story on the top end of totem pole, and it’s still my belief that Joe firmly rests at the top of the managerial list in baseball.
But it doesn’t change the fact that managers like AJ Hinch (he was just rewarded with a nice extension) have experienced enormous success on a budget price to the Houston Astros.
I don’t mention this to suggest the Cubs are looking to replace Joe with a replacement level manager. Heck, I’m running on the idea that the Nightengale story is false. But I do think the Cubs, acting as a smart business should, is using the collective salaries of managers against Joe – and they would have a case.
I believe the Cubs want no part of finding a new manager, but I think they would appreciate paying something closer to the market price for a World Series winning skipper. While Joe is priced in that category now, Scioscia is retiring, Bochy might do the same, which leaves Maddon as the highest paid manager, by a rather wide margin (Hinch’s extension hasn’t been released as of yet).
Here is where the conspiracy comes in, or at least some gamemanship.
On Mully and Haugh there was some talk about the USA Today news being leaked by someone on Joe’s team. Why would he release it? Well, here’s why.
If the trend is to pay managers less and less, and Maddon’s team likely seeking something closer to $10 million a season, the thought was to release this as a negotiating tool to get him a deal sooner rather than later, and potentially for something closer to Joe’s number.
The thought is, if this news was out there, Joe would feel slighted by the organization forcing the team to rush towards an extension. After all, if Houston and even LA can discuss extensions mid-season, the Cubs could as well. A token extension would show Joe love, show that the organization is behind him, and shows that all involved believe in Joe monetarily as well as with words.
Which is why it would benefit Joe to work back-channels to release something like that news. It’s not like Joe, and his team, haven’t worked certain avenues to benefit him before, hence, how he is even in Chicago to begin with.
The thought is also assuming that someone on Joe’s team leaked that news to Nightengale, allowing Joe to have plausible deniability. If he wasn’t aware it allow Joe to appear surprised about the news. He’s steamrolled by it because he had no idea this wasn’t possible.
At the end of the day I really believe the Cubs love Joe and Joe loves being here. Unless something incredible happens I can’t see the Cubs with another manager in 2020. Joe will likely manage this team as long as Joe wants to manage this team, and money won’t be an issue.
