Lackey Signing Hurts Cards, Briefly
Yesterday the news of John Lackey signing with the Chicago Cubs rang through social media and Baseball alike. Today as the hangover begins to wear, we look at the impact of the Lackey signing on the Cubs as well as their biggest rival, the St Louis Cardinals.
John Lackey Signing – Good
Immediately the John Lackey signing is a great one for the Cubs. They get another impact starting pitcher, something the team set out to do per Theo’s state of the Cubs address after the season ended. Being able to deepen the rotation to three quality pitchers, of Lackey, Jake Arrieta, and Jon Lester (not necessarily in that order) is a huge step in the right direction for competing in postseason baseball.
The Cubs were able to get him at their price. While Lackey was offered a qualifying offer by St Louis at season’s end, the Cubs were able to get him for similar money for the next two seasons (this year’s QO was $15.8 million, while the reported deal is $32-34 M over two seasons). If Lackey is a 2.5 WAR player in 2016 and 17 (he averages 2.65), this deal will be plenty worth the risk.
Risk, sure there’s some risk in signing any pitcher, not just a 37 year old one. The Cubs however have Lackey short-term which minimizes the impact his salary has on the rest of the team. While this club has some budgetary constraints – thanks Sam Zell – the roster is rather inexpensive as it remains (roughly $125 million) and expects to go into 2016 at around $135 million. Lackey’s deal allows the team resources to acquire additional talent – hello centerfield – and if the team needs to free up more funds they have Starlin Castro as a trade option if they so choose.
The John Lackey signing also hurts the Cubs biggest rival, St Louis. This is a team that is desperate for starting pitching, and thus far has swung and missed on the market. The Cardinals offer potential free agents a great baseball city to play in, as well as a place to compete year-after-year. That makes it confusing as to why pitchers like Lackey, and David Price would sign elsewhere, considering Lackey’s success under the arch, and a ballpark that would make Price’s dominance look even better.
From the high-level overview of the deal, this is a very good signing.
John Lackey Signing – Bad
Lackey’s not a spring chicken to say the least. A 37 year old that will be nearing 40 when this deal is over doesn’t scream a 30 plus starts a season guy over the next two years. While the Cubs have some depth – primarily with Jason Hammel and Travis Wood – you still want the guys you’ve invested in to be on the field.
Lackey also posses a fiery temperament while on the mound. Some believe this could become cancerous to a close knit team like the Cubs, while those that know him like former teamates, Jon Lester and David Ross, believe that is him just being a competitor.
David Ross on Lackey: "One of the best competitors I've ever been around. And I'm not just saying that."
— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) December 4, 2015
He also isn’t one of those top names, like most expected. From July on Cubs fans were teased with the bromance between the Cubs and David Price, and unless one of these remaining free agent pitchers pull a Joey Potter, by climbing through Dawson Leary’s window (yes that’s a Dawson’s Creek reference, and perhaps a bad one) Theo and the Cubs will have missed out on the biggest free agent bonanza of possibly all-time.
Finally, the Cardinals have possibly been the best team in the league at bringing prospects to the big leagues and them finding big success. In fact, they are consistently rated as the team who has the biggest portion of their roster built from homegrown talent.
You might be asking yourself, why is that important?
Well, the Cardinals submitted a qualifying offer to Lackey (told ya we’d talk about this again) which would cause the team that signs Lackey (the Cubs) to lose their first round draft pick in the upcoming draft. Additionally, the Cardinals will gain a sandwich pick, between the first and second rounds of that draft. With Lackey already signing with the Cubs, and another free agent – Jason Heyward – whom also received a QO expected to sign elsewhere, the Cardinals will continue to strengthen their roster for years to come by actually losing players.
While yes, late first round and later picks rarely have impact on a MLB team for several seasons, the last place a Cubs fan would want a prospect with talent to end up, is in St Louis.
Mostly this is a good deal for the Cubs, and certainly better than spending $90 million over five years on Jeff Samardzija. While there are legitimate questions on his durability as age creeps in, as well as character – remember the beer and chicken incident in Boston – it strengths the biggest glaring weakness the Cubs had in the playoffs, starting pitching.
