Let's Put This Debate To Rest: Chris Sale vs Jake Arrieta

It’s only natural when there is a rivalry that the fanbases of both teams seek to prove their players prominence over the said rival teams players. This practice has been perverted to a level of national-ridiculousness in shows such as ESPN’s First Take, where we see some of the most ludicrous and irresponsible statements ever made by any journalist in the history of sports journalism spewed consistently once every 24 hours by Skip Bayless and Stephen A Smith. So in the spirit of what has become a new national past time, meaningless debate, I present to you the final arguments of one of Chicago Baseball Fanbases most heated arguments; Chris Sale or Jake Arrieta?

Now to be fair, the city of Chicago is incredibly fortunate to be able to even have this debate. There is not a two-team city in all of America that would complain about this. I am certain that the Yankees would much rather have either Jake Arrieta or Chris Sale to debate against the Mets Noah Syndegard or Jake Degrom.

Likewise, the Los Angelas Angels of Anaheim would no doubt like to pit either against Clayton Kershaw as opposed to Garret Richards. So, while we go about this exercise, let’s not forget just how fortunate we are throughout the season to be able to witness greatness on the mound no matter the side of Chicago you cheer for.

Let’s get to it. Jake Arrieta.

Jake Arrieta is somewhat of an anomaly. I highly-touted prospect that was assumed to have fizzled out for good when he and Pedro Strop were traded for the awe-poweful Scott Feildman in 2013.(Thanks again, Dan Duquette). For whatever reason, fans tend to see players who were perceived to be “busts” or “flame-outs” and dismiss their ascension to greatness. However, since the minute Jake Arreita got to Chicago make no mistake, he has been great.

When asked about the biggest difference between Chicago and Baltimore, Arrieta commented:

I feel like I was playing a constant tug-of-war, trying to make the adjustments I was being told to make and knowing in the back of my mind that I can do things differently and be better.

Once Arrieta got to Chicago he was given the freedom to pitch with the mechanics that had made him a once-heralded prospect and the rest became National League Cy Young and historical season history.

Here is how Jake’s numbers look from the moment he stepped foot in the Cubs locker room:

2013: 4wins/2 losses, 3.66 ERA, 6.45 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 4.94 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, .190 BABIP, 1.22 HR/9

Now, while those don’t look awe-inspiring, keep in mind that Jake was finally allowed to switch back to his cross-body pitching style midseason upon the trade. So, even with changing techniques halfway through the season, Jake was able to keep batters hitting below .200 against him while posting solid home run/9 innings total and a solid ERA to boot. That offseason, Arrieta would be able to put full work into fine-tuning his lifelong mechanics with his cross-body pitching style and in 2014, in a limited number of starts, he would do this:

10 Wins, 5 Losses, 2.53 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 2.73 xFIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.29 HR/9 Innings, .274 BABIP

This 5 WARP season went somewhat under-appreciated around baseball. Being written off as a small body of work or the “best pitcher on a bad team”. Unless you lived in the greater-Chicago area or were a Cubs fan watching from outside the state of Illinois, Arrieta was still nothing more than a “once-was” prospect with the “at-best” middle-to-backend rotation starter label attached to him. Then, in 2015, Arrieta did this:

22 wins, 6 losses, 1.77 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 9.28 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, .246 BABIP, 7.3 WARP

Now Arrieta could not be denied. One of the best pitchers in the game, Cy young winner, and ace. Arrieta has drastically improved his control and command over the last 3 seasons and looks to be doing the same through 3 starts this year as his BB/9 continues to drop. As the Cubs made improving their defense a priority in the offseason with acquistions of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, you can expect his BABIP to drop as well. With Arrieta, you have arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball(Ya, I’m even including you, Clayton Kershaw).

The scariest part about it is it seems as if he is just now reaching his ceiling. If he is reducing his BB/9 STILL, that is a terrifying proposition for National League hitters as his command of his pitches may JUST NOW be manifesting itself to its full potential.

Now, Chris Sale.

Another guy who, had he been a Baltimore Oriole draft pick, would have had to change his pitching motion. His “condor”-type mechanics may make him a risk in the future, but as of now he has been as durable as they get on the rubber. Kudos go to the White Sox for allowing him to grow into the pitcher he is as opposed to trying to change his mechanics into a pitcher that he is not. That faith in his ability and risk-tolerance to allow his unconventional mechanics have paid great dividends for the south side as Chris Sale has been a bonafide ace for the rotation since his debut in the big leagues.

To keep comparisons apples-to-apples, we will pick up Sale’s career in 2013. A year in which he started 30 games, winning 11 of them, posting a 3.07 ERA, with a K/9 rate 9.49 to just 1.93 BB/9 innings pitched. His BABIP was .289 against him and he held hitters to just .97 HR/9 innings pitched. His FIP and xFIP stood at 3.17 and 2.95, respectively. Good for a 4.9 WARP.

In 2014 he would have his best season-to-date. Posting career bests in ERA, FIP, and XFIP at 2.17, 2.57 and 2.83, respectively. His BABIP would sit at .280 while he struck out 10.76 batters per 9 innings and only walked 2.02. Going 12 and 4 on the year in 26 starts, Chris Sale would post a 5.2 WARP and finish 3rd in the cy young voting behind only Corey Kluber of the Indians and Felix Hernandez of the Mariners.

2015 brought more of the same as Sale would start 31 contests, going 13 and 11 while posting a ridiculous 11.82 K/9 innings to just 1.81 BB/9 innings. His BABIP would skyrocket to .323 against him and you could look at the White Sox defense to that as much as anything. His ERA would shoot up to 3.41, however his FIP and xFIP( a better indication for a pitchers impact) would sit at 2.73 and 2.60. Finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting for the season.

So, I reiterate, as we look at these numbers we can tell that any two teams in baseball would be ecstatic to have either of these pitchers on their roster. However, this is about driving discussion, so one has to take the cake. For me, that is going to be Jake Arrieta.

That may seem hasty or bias after reviewing the last 2-3 seasons of both pitchers, however, when looking at it objectively Arrieta has simply been better since early in 2014. I think that is enough of a body-of-work between two pitchers to lean towards Arrieta.

But don’t take my word for it. Here are some graphs from Fangraphs that shows just how much better Arrieta has been since early in the 2014 season.

Again, making this argument is the equivalent to arguing a steak from Keens in New York City or #1Cut in Beverly Hills. They are both the prime choice and you are, undoubtedly, going to have to pay a premium if you want to savor them for years to come.

However, with 2 full seasons between 2014 and 2015 of both pitchers being allowed to pitch with their personal, unorthodox mechanics. Jake Arrieta, sitting at 12.3 WARP and with no signs of slowing down, edges out Chris Sale, sitting at 11.4 WARP over the same timeframe, for the best pitcher in the windy city.

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