Levine: Cubs Payroll Could Push $245 Million!?

The Chicago Cubs already have the fourth highest payroll in baseball, coming in at $194.3 million, and with guaranteed increases, arbitration raises, options, etc. the Cubs’ payroll before signing any free agent will likely push the $210 million mark in 2019. According to AM-670 The Score’s Bruce Levine, it is very possible that the Cubs push the $245 million mark next season.

Now Levine puts most of this on the expectation that the Cubs sign a free agent like Bryce Harper, and Levine also suggested that the Cubs signing Harper was inevitable. As Levine speculated, a Harper deal would start at 10 years, $350 million. This would certainly put the Cubs right around that $245 million mark, as Levine suggests.

Even without Harper, it isn’t difficult to find the Cubs jumping well over the Competitive Balance Tax figure of $206 million, and adding a player like Harper or Manny Machado, or any of the other big free agents will certainly start to push the Cubs towards the $245 mark.

It is incredibly important that the Cubs remain under $246 million. The way the MLB Competitive Balance Tax works now, a team that spends more than $40 million more than the tax threshold ($206 million) will not only be taxed 42.5% on the dollar over, they will also lose their highest draft pick in the next draft. So it will be important for the Cubs to remain under the $246 million mark, but could, should, and likely will jump up to around $240-$245 million.

Here is how the Cubs current payroll seems to shake out:

(sorry that’s not an attractive display, but it can be found here as well)

Now, the list above includes guys like the Cubs current shortstop, who might not be with the club, as well as options for Cole Hamels at $20M as well as Brandon Kintzler at $10M. It of course includes the Jose Quintana option, which is a very reasonable $10.5M.

If we remove those two salaries, plus limit any increases to the current shortstop, that would put the Cubs right around $207.5M with just their current roster. This also does not include Victor Caratini, Randy Rosario, and Alec Mills who are under team control until 2023, then any number of fourth players that saw time on the big league roster in 2018, this would put the Cubs in the neighborhood of $209.7M. Virtually the number Levine stated on the show Saturday.

Now the tricky part is adding someone like Harper, without jumping over that third tier tax threshold. If Harper gets a 10 year, $350 million deal, an AAV puts him at $35M, which puts the Cubs at $244.7M. This is under that $246M mark, but doesn’t allow for the Cubs to do anything regarding call-ups or mid-season trades. If any move causes them to add salary, they would very likely jump up over that $246M mark and would gain that additional tax and lose a draft pick.

This is where Theo Epstein will need to get creative. A lot of people believe the Cubs and Cole Hamels will work out a multi-year deal instead of just picking up his $20M option. This would likely open up $5 million in 2019. A trade of one or more controllable players could open up another $1.6M in salary. Finding a way to shed the shortstop’s salary would remove an additional $3.2M. These three ideas would free up nearly $10M in salary for the 2019 season.

There are still many that believe the Cubs will find another way to move a player or two, which could potentially reduce the overall payroll some more. Coincidently, if the Cubs decline Hamels option but offer him a multi-year option, it would save the Cubs another $6 million as the Texas Rangers are on the hook for his $6M buyout.

I don’t know if the Cubs will sign Harper or Machado or opt to sign multiple other guys that can help. However, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer play this offseason, I will say this and I can say this definitively – The Chicago Cubs will not look the same in 2019 as they did in 2019. Epstein was not happy in his end of year press conference. When he isn’t happy, he makes changes. Do not be surprised to see someone you really like be traded. In fact, if your name isn’t Bryant or Rizzo, it is likely that the Cubs will have a conversation about you this offseason.

Things start to rock-n-roll in just a couple of short days, let’s hope the Cubs find a way to land the biggest fish in the sea.

Jamie Baker

Hi, I’m Jamie and I run this site. I’ve published work on multiple other sites and through that experience I decided to create CHICAGO style SPORTS. We truly aim to speak for the Chicago fan. Additionally, as a member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association of America) you can be assured that all content you read will be written with incredible integrity.

See author's posts