Likely Cubs Target No One is Talking About

I know Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are the sexy names in free agency. But sexy isn’t the most probable, or likely. There are a fleet of other free agents that will be on the market, several of them that will help the Chicago Cubs in 2019 and beyond. So who are these mystery men that will certainly help? Ah… keep reading…

Jed Lowrie, IF

It is incredibly likely that the Cubs will be searching for a new infielder for the 2019 season due to the uncertainty of their current shortstop and if the Cubs will offload him. There are no legal concerns the cause worry, but the public relations nightmare, distraction to the team, and looking as if the Cubs are ok with someone that abuses women are enough to push the organization to ditch him at all costs.

So if there is a hole, they will need to fill it. That is where Jed Lowrie comes in.

Lowrie is a Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein guy. A year after Theo had traded away a franchise shortstop in Nomar Garciaparra, He drafted Lowrie with a sandwich pick in the first round of the 2005 draft. He would then be pegged as the SS of the Boston Red Sox future, however, it never really worked out that way for him there. But Boston isn’t the only place it hasn’t really worked, and it hasn’t been because of talent. It seems the nagging injury bug has followed Jed from stop to stop and is often the cause for inconsistent play.

But that hasn’t been the case in each of the past two seasons, which have marked the first time in Jed’s 11 year career that he’s posted back-to-back 600+ plate appearance seasons. Because of his ability to remain on the field, Jed has posted the best offensive seasons of his career resulting in a .808 OPS in 2017 and .801 in 2018. He has also hit 36 home runs, hit 86 doubles, and drove in 168 runs over that time.

Jed has also played more second base over the past several seasons and hasn’t been a real shortstop since the 2014 season. But with his move to 2B, Lowrie has found a way to become more versatile, suiting up at four different positions, making him even more valuable and much more of a fit for a Joe Maddon run the baseball team.

Spotrac has a neat feature which puts a market value on a player, based on performance as well as player comps from around the league. In the case of Jed Lowrie, they put a two year, $25 million value on Jed, which would pay him roughly $12.5 million a season. This would have been an incredible investment in 1988, but the Cubs handed out more than this to Tyler Chatwood and he hardly seemed like an MLB level pitcher.

Here is how it makes sense. Of course, there could be a large hole to fill, so immediately he fills a need. He would likely play second, primarily, however his versatility will allow Maddon to run him out to short, third, and even first base. Not only will it give others around the diamond much needed days off, with Ben Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, and David Bote along with the regular starters, this gives the Cubs an incredible amount of depth allowing them to withstand unforeseen injury.

Roster impact

Here is the tough spot. I absolutely expect the Cubs to sign someone like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado (the former much more than the latter). With that, here is the Cubs positional player outlook for the 2019 season.

1. Willson Contreras, C
2. Victor Caratini, C
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (RP)
4. Ben Zobrist, 2B/UT
5. Javier Baez, 2B/SS
6. A.R., SS
7. Kris Bryant, 3B
8. David Bote, 3B/2B
9. Tommy La Stella, 3B/IF
10. Kyle Schwarber, LF/C
11. Albert Almora Jr CF
12. Ian Happ, CF/UT
13. Jason Heyward, RF
14. Bryce Harper/Manny Machado
15. Jed Lowrie, 2B

In this scenario, leaving 10 pitchers absolutely suggests a trade. In fact, if the Cubs sign Machado or Bryce and Lowrie, you can certainly expect one or two MLB roster deals to be made. A trade, or drop of AR is very likely to happen, leaving 11 spots for pitching. With the team carrying five starters, a closer, two “setup” or eighth inning guys, a lefty specialist and long relief type, this leaves only one spot for another reliever. There are several guys the team can juggle between the minor leagues, but it’s more likely to have a 12th pitcher (if not 13).

I would also think the Cubs would be interested in bringing another catcher into the mix, either as a third option or to replace Victor. Adding a third backstop clouds the roster conversations even more.

If it all happens, it just means there will be a trade involving one, or more MLB roster guys. The guys that are easiest to point to, and you’ve seen their names in other places, would be Schwarber, Happ, Almora, and Bote.

But who would go?

Trading Almora almost certainly doesn’t make sense. I will argue that Almora had possibly the worst offensive season of the Cubs outfielders (this is where fans will talk about his average and other players being prone to strikeouts) based on his hits being mostly empty. Point being, Happ and Schwarber might have hit 40-50 points lower than Almora, but they each reached base way more often, and when they did hit the ball they did much more damage than Almora did. But, Albert doesn’t make a good trade prospect as, outside of Almora and Heyward, the rest of the Cubs OF had shaky defense at best. Kyle rated out as the second-best defensive LF in baseball, but there is still a ways to go with him. Happ held his own but was mostly below average in center. If Al is dealt, the only strong defender would be Heyward, and the team could move him to CF to open space for an incoming outfielder. This would severely hinder the Cubs OF defense, leading me to believe Almora is secure in Chicago.

That leaves Schwarber and Happ in the outfield or Bote. Of the three, I think Happ has the most value on the trade market, he’s also the guy I see without a position if Bryce is signed.

If the Cubs sign Harper, Heyward will more than likely move to center to open right field for Bryce. If you are making late-game defensive changes, you aren’t removing Jason, and certainly, aren’t removing Harper’s bat. The one spot that you can sub for is left. Heyward won’t go there (being left-handed adds more difficulty) but Almora or Zobrist or Bryant could. This allows more roster flexibility for late game changes.

Now yes, Happ could play left, and gives the Cubs more flexibility in being able to play all three OF spots and hit from both sides of the plate, but this is what likely makes him more valuable to other teams as well, earning a bigger return. We also have to consider that there is still the incorrect narrative that Kyle is a DH that the Cubs are forced to trot out to left field. He isn’t always pretty, but, again, he was rated as the second-best defensive left fielder in 2018. In any event, trading Kyle likely cuts out half of baseball (National League) because of that narrative, and leaves only American League teams that don’t already have legitimate designated hitters. Oh, and they would need to have something worthwhile coming back in return.

If Bryce is signed, it just makes sense that Happ is dealt.

Now, if Machado signs in Chicago, this entire article likely isn’t worth the time I put into it. Not only would the Cubs OF likely be unchanged, but they probably wouldn’t also sign Lowrie. Machado would become the shortstop, Baez will be the second baseman, and that would be that. But, I’m in the belief that the Cubs will open the checkbook for Harper before they do so for Manny.

Jamie Baker

Hi, I’m Jamie and I run this site. I’ve published work on multiple other sites and through that experience I decided to create CHICAGO style SPORTS. We truly aim to speak for the Chicago fan. Additionally, as a member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association of America) you can be assured that all content you read will be written with incredible integrity.

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