Making a Case for Freddy Galvis
Hurry Up and Wait
Alright, let’s get this out of the way to save everyone the trouble of pointing it out in the comments. At this point in the offseason, we really have no idea of what the Cubs will actually do in the offseason to change the look of the 2019 roster, though we can all agree that it will indeed be different. Teams can’t talk to free agents until after the deadline for options and qualifying offers. So while Harper may know where he wants to play and the Cubs know what they want to offer, neither side is talking until Friday evening. Because of that, the only real news trickling out of the organization is the often unsurprising and rather mundane business of who is getting a qualifying offer, who is accepting the QO (spoiler alert: probably nobody), and which options are being accepted or declined. Seeing as how none of that is very exciting or even all that interesting to many, it leaves us plenty of time to think about all the other offseason moves just waiting to be done. In fact, it could be said that the most fun thing about this time of year is that we each get the chance to mentally build the perfect Cubs team; the best lineup, the greatest rotation since the ’97 Braves, all without the added distraction of reality hitting us with the news that our favorite player just signed with our biggest rival. With that said, I took a look at the positional breakdown of this year’s free agent class, looked at the Cubs needs heading into 2019, kept in mind how it sure seems like the signs are pointing towards Harper wearing Cubbie blown next April, and tried to come up with some creative ways to address the 2019 needs while staying under the MLB Competitive Balance Tax threshold of what amounts to $246,000,000.
(Disclaimer: Nobody is saying this is what the Cubs *will* do. These are just creative ideas to pass the boring, lack of baseball news time.)
Harper Is In
For the premise of this article, we’re going to say that Bryce Harper is coming to the Cubs and even with a very creative, back-end-heavy contract that keeps his AAV (average annual value) at $35M but the actual dollar amount is $30M for the first year or two, freeing up $5M, that still puts the Cubs with just about $10M to spend on the payroll before hitting that critical $246M threshold. The Cubs will need to get creative to fills holes in both pitching and defensive positions. Fortunately, with Harper comes that big bat to shake up the lineup, adding the pop that was missing from last year’s team.
The Middle Infield
This still isn’t the time when we get into the full conversation of Addison Russell‘s future with the Cubs but, for the sake of this article, just go with it when I say he’s out and regardless of where you put Javy, there’s still a position in need of filling. Sure, the Cubs could bring Murphy back, but what if there’s better options out there? Not only is Murphy slowing down with age (34 in 2019) but he had a negative WAR last season, both with the Nationals (-0.8) and the Cubs (-0.2). Plus retaining Murphy keeps Javy at SS, even though it’s very easy to argue hes better defensively at 2B. Further, it’s technically Addison were replacing seeing as how Murphy likely wouldn’t have been picked up had Javy not been needed at short in the first place.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present for your consideration: Freddy Galvis. He spent the first 6 years of his career playing for the Phillies before being traded to the Padres prior to the 2018 season. He has never been known for his bat, and honestly hes never had very pretty offensive numbers. What he is known for, and has always been known for, is his defensive abilities and versatility. Not only has he led the national league in fielding percent each of the last three years, but he also started every game for each of the last 2 years, committing just 16 errors in 324 games. (To put that into perspective, Daniel Murphy committed 21 errors in 234 games in 2017 and 2018.) He has been nominated for a Gold Glove in each of the past 3 seasons, just missing out to Brandon Crawford in ’16 and ’17. Should this be the year he wins, Cubs could potentially have two Gold Glover’s making up the middle infield. His defense is so good, in fact, that even with his dismal offensive numbers, he still put together a 2.3 WAR in ’18, a full win higher than Bryce Harper’s 1.3 2018 WAR. Since Freddy was traded to the Padres before the start of the ’18 season, he is eligible to receive a qualifying offer of 1 yr/$17M. It is extremely unlikely he receives one, though, which is what makes him attractive to me. He won’t cost a draft pick, and he can be had for relatively cheap. He turns 29 this offseason, so he still has a few years left of being an elite defender at a premium position. Those rarely come around for this cheap. Manny Machado is not an elite defender at shortstop and while its unknown if the team he signs with will keep him at short, you can be sure he will be getting much, much more than Galvis this offseason. Even a contract like 1 or 2yrs for $1.5-$3M wouldnt be much risk for the Cubs to potentially have the best double play combo in the league. There arent many teams on the hunt for a shortstop and the ones who are on the hunt are likely to be going after one of the 4 other SS FA’s available this season. That, combined with possible concerns that least years free agency wasnt a fluke but more of a sign of things to come, and it wouldnt be hard to see why Galvis would accept such an offer. If he signs with the Cubs, figures out a way to get his offensive numbers up while providing excellent defense, he has a chance to play for a team with legitimate World Series goals and could raise his stock for a better payout in a year or two when he goes back to being a free agent.
Should the Cubs sign Freddy Galvis to a contract with an AAV of $1-$1.5M, that still leaves them with $8.5-$9M to sign pitching. Yes, that yearly problem of pitching. As it stands now, the Cubs rotation consists of Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and possibly Mike Montgomery and Tyler Chatwood, though it could be argued that those last two belong in the pen. Questions linger with regard to Darvish’s health, Lester’s age and Quintana’s effectiveness. Towards the end of 2018, the bullpen was, quite frankly, a hot mess, thanks in part to Morrow and Strop both hitting the DL, Kintzler being flat out not good with the Cubs, and CJ Edward’s inability to consistently find the zone, just to name a few issues. With all that said, it’s easy enough to see why adding another starter and pushing Montgomery and Chatwood to the pen wouldnt be a bad idea. The free agent market is pretty flooded with both starters and relievers but with only around $9M AAV to spend, the Cubs run the very real risk of signing another Chatwood. So what’s the answer? Why, a trade, of course! So, who’s available, for relatively cheap? I can’t say for certain he’s available but Blake Snell would come relatively cheap. Hes under team control for another year (in terms of dollars, that means he makes around league minimum) and then under arbitration until 2023. Again, I’m not sure how available he is, or how open the Tampa Bay Ray’s are to even discussing his name in trade talks, but this feels like the perfect time to remind you that Russell is on his way out, one way or another. Would the Ray’s accept a trade package of Russell and Happ for Snell? I can’t for sure that they would but maybe sweetening the deal by throwing in Chatwood would pique their interest? I know it sounds like a lot, 3 major league players for 1 pitcher, but when you factor in Snell’s very team friendly contract and the fact that hes likely to finish in the top 3 in CY Young votes, and you can see how it might take a lot, like 3 major league players (as opposed to prospects).
Whether any of these ideas actually come to fruition I cannot say. What I will say is, Theo Epstein’s end of season comments made it very clear that the 2019 roster will look very different from that of 2018. Guys you may not like could show up to Sloan Park come Spring Training. Current Cubs that you’re deeply fond of may not find their way back to Sloan Park in February. Be prepared for changes. A few other things we can be certain of: Theo & Co. came into this offseason downright pissed off with Cubs abrupt departure from the 2018 Postseason. This will be a motivating factor in making whatever deal they see fit to make the 2019 roster one of the best in the bigs. They will have the green light to both spend big on the right player and make the trades necessary to bring the Commissioner’s Trophy back to Chicago. This is going to be a fun offseason and you should definitely be excited for the 2019 season.
Meh, he’s Darwin Barney. Maybe as a defensive substitute if they resign Murphy.