Manny Machado: Baseball’s Bad Boy You Never Knew You Wanted (on the Cubs)
Manny Vs. Bryce: Comparing The Numbers and Analyzing The Intangibles
By: Meagan O’Donnell
Chicago Cubs play-by-play announcer Len Kasper has a line he likes to use, usually when a pitcher is being taken out, that goes something like: “Never make a move that is going to make the other team happy.” As true as those words are during the season, they are possibly even more true during free agency in the offseason. Cubs competition would absolutely love it if Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer did what many Cub fans do and make decisions regarding the 2018 Free Agent Class based on emotions and one sided media reports, especially when it comes to the very talented Mr. Machado.
I recently came across a very informal poll on a Facebook Cubs fan page asking fans who they would prefer: Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, and to leave a comment with why. Harper won that particular poll with 58% of the votes. There was plenty of reasons why given, a few of which Id like to get into. The answer given most frequently was a variation of “Because Harper can mash!”. That is a very true sentiment. As we all know, he won the 2018 Home Run Derby (yes, I said won. no, im not including an asterisk) and ended the season with 34 homers. Manny hit 37 dingers in 2018. It seems like all Harper has done since making his debut in 2012 is knock dingers out of parks all across America. In 2015, Harper hit 42 long balls and put up such good numbers he was named NL MVP. Despite this, Manny Machado has still hit more home run in the last 4 seasons than Bryce Harper. Harper has hit 126 home runs over the last 4 seasons compared to Machado’s 142.
Ok, fine, you say. That only averages out to an extra 4 homers per season. No big deal. That doesn’t make Machado better. And if that were the end of it, you would be correct. However, as we keep digging deeper in the offensive stats, we see that Machado beats Harper in almost every single one available. In 2018, Harper batted a rather pedestrian .249. Machado batted .273. Want to use the “Harper had a down year” excuse? Ok, go ahead. Except Harper’s career batting average is .279, compared to Machado’s slightly better career average of .283. Are you a fan of extra base hits? So is Harper. He hit 34 doubles this year. Manny hit 35. Think triples are sexy? Harper doesn’t, or at least didn’t hit any in 2018. For what its worth, Machado hit 3. What about RBI’S? Well, glad you asked. Harper knocked in 100 runners in 2018. Machado batted in 107. Stolen bases? Harper stole 13 bases in 2018. Machado stole 14. Don’t like the fact that strikeouts are up all around baseball? Might not want to watch Harper’s at bats as he struck out 169 times in 2018. Machado has considerably less with 104. It isn’t until we get to OBP/SLG/OPS that we finally see the edge going to Harper. He is very patient at the plate and this has helped him see a whopping 130 walks in 2018, helping to raise his on base percent to a very reasonable .393. His career average is .388 while Machado’s is just .335. Even with all of Machado’s extra base hits, he slugging percent is still lower than Harper’s with Machado slugging a.487 compared to Harper’s .496. Lets not stop there, though! WAR (wins above replacement) is one of my favorite stats. It’s all encompassing, is a very accurate measurement of a players overall abilities, and is arguably the best stat to use when comparing players, especially those that play different positions. In that sense, it is perfect for this conversation. That said, the difference in WAR between Machado and Harper is pretty significant and rather surprising. This past season, Bryce Harper just barely managed to scrape together a 1.3 WAR, compared to Machado’s 5.7 WAR. Before you fall back on that “down year” excuse, though, you should know that even though both of these guys debuted in 2012, Harper has a career 27.4 WAR while Machado has a career WAR of 33.8. And if WAR doesn’t convince you, perhaps the fact that Machado can be had without losing a compensatory draft pick while Harper, who is sure to receive a qualifying offer, cannot. If I add in the fact that Machado is unlikely to cost as much as Harper, will that will push you over the edge and into the “Land Machado puhlease Mr Epstein!!” camp with me?
As we can see, Manny Machado is just as good, if not better, as Bryce Harper in offensive categories. Defensively, Machado plays premium infield positions that he has won Gold Gloves at. Specifically, he can play shortstop. While the details and the discussion thereof can take place in a later story, it cannot be denied that for a minimum of 29 games to open the season, the Cubs will be in need of a shortstop. I’m sure you’re all screaming Javy’s name right now but he is the Cubs second baseman and their backup SS. He plays better when he is at second. He has less errors at 2B. If the Cubs sign Machado to play SS, Javy can move back to where he belongs. Can you see in your head yet what a beautiful double play combo Manny and Javy would be?! The argument that Manny wasn’t very good at shortstop is silly. If anything, it just took him a bit to get used to it and once he was traded to the Dodger, he started looking a lot better at the position. He made 51 starts at short while in LA and committed 4 errors. To put that into perspective, Javy Baez made 52 starts at short for the Cubs in 2018 and committed 8 errors yet you wont find anyone saying Javy is bad at any infield position.
What Are The Intangibles, Though?
Joe Maddon once said that Shane Victorino (remember him?) “just drips with intangibles” but what exactly are the intangibles? Well, in baseball anyway, simply put, intangibles are certain qualities and contributions a player brings to the diamond that cannot be tracked or measured either by traditional or advanced stats. Things like Baez’s tagging abilities would definitely qualify as an intangible. I’ve seen a lot of comments calling Machado a dirty player solely based off of his (admittedly egregious) slides into second during the NLDS. Some may call it a dirty play. Others would say he was simply playing hard. Some have taken offense to Machado saying he “will never be Johnny Hustle” but those same people will excuse Harper for not busting it out of the box to beat an infield hit because of the injury to his knee he sustained doing exactly that. My thing about these (relatively small) issues is that us fans, viewing it from the outside in, can’t know the intangibles a player brings to a team until he brings it to your team. Once upon a time, Daniel Murphy was the homophobic Cub killer we all loved to hate. But then he miraculously cleared waivers, was picked up by the Cubs, and was a folk hero practically over night, seemingly for nothing more than because his first night at the top of the line up ended a streak of 5 straight games scoring 1 run or less and going on to win the first 7 games Murphy played in. Now some people would honestly rather have him back over a guy that makes Miller Park roar with the level of booing usually reserved for Ryan Braun! Anthony Rizzo has made hard, sometimes questionable slides into 2B and home but you would hard pressed to find a single Cub fan that would ever utter his name in the same sentence as the phrase “dirty player”, let alone all out call him one. As fans, we get to be passionate about the men on the teams we cheer for. Our emotions are the reason we have a rivalry with the St Louis Cardinals. Its the driving force in the growing animosity with the Milwaukee Brewers, and that’s not even getting started about how the Brewers feel about the Cubs in general and Machado specifically. If this game didn’t spark an emotion, what would be fun about watching? But our emotions can also get in the way of us seeing what is best for this team. When the subject of Manny Machado comes up, emotions flare and we all are immediately drawn in to either defending or condemning him. If we could leave emotions out of it, though, we would see that signing Manny Machado really is what’s best for the 2019 and beyond Chicago Cubs.
