Narrative Crashing Time – The Cubs are Good at Baseball
There has been a lot of complaining, maybe rightfully so but mostly not, about the Chicago Cubs not being very good right now. They are in third place in the National League Central, there has been questionable play from several players, and it just hasn’t been an enjoyable season. While I share in some of the frustration, I have the tendency to take a step back and view things from a 10,000-foot perch, and it usually keeps me fairly level-headed about how things are going. It also allows me to still enjoy Cubs games as long as I stay out of the comments on social media.
What I am here to tell you, stop freaking out. The Chicago Cubs are actually kind of good at baseball.
The Chicago Cubs have the lowest ERA in the National League and the second lowest in all of baseball.
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) May 21, 2018
To all those saying the Cubs’ offense is bad or inconsistent, know they’ve scored …
– 4 or more runs in 23 of 44 games.
– 5 or more in 20
– 6 or more in 17
– 8 or more in 15
– 9 or more in 10
– 10 or more in 9Stop acting like they’re a bad offense. They’re not.
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) May 21, 2018
See, what Michael said.
Pitching
The Cubs have the best team ERA in the National League and the second best in the entire game. The only team with a better ERA is the Houston Astros, and those guys over there have been out of this world kind of good.
While this tells you a little bit of the story, there are some things you would love to see tidied up. Like perhaps starters consistently working into the sixth and seventh innings. I think this is a fair criticism of the starters on the team, and while I sang the praises of Joe Maddon in this post, I think this is an area he might bear some blame.
The last two seasons the pitching staff didn’t really ramp up work until a week later than teams usually get their guys going. Now the thought process behind it has been the Cubs pitching staff has pitched well into October (and even November) in recent seasons. By starting the pitchers later, Joe has felt that this allowed them to be stronger. later in the season. I don’t know if that has worked or not, but I have seen similar things from this staff the past two seasons; slow starts, inconsistent velocity, not able to go deep into ballgames.
Maybe those are connected, maybe not. I do believe that athletes are a creature of habit, and their offseason workouts prepare them to come into camp ready to go. But that’s all I will say about that.
Offense
Did you know the Cubs hitters lead the league in WAR (Wins Above Replacement)? Did you also know they strike out fewer than all but two other National League teams?
This is probably a huge surprise to some, especially after the record pace the Cubs were on early in the season.
I think both of these start to point to – this team isn’t as bad as it is billed to be. Or at least what social media folks tend to try and tell you it is. Sure the team could use stability in the leadoff spot, but they have been sufficient in the platooning of that spot.
When you look at the pitching and the hitting from this team I wouldn’t be surprised if they go on a huge run where they play .700 ball here soon.
Complete Game
While the team is still lacking a bit defensively, it would be hard to imagine the Cubs continue to play sloppy defense for very long. This is a team of quality defenders at nearly every spot. But even their worst defender (Ian Happ according to Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average rating) has been able to contribute defensively from centerfield and can move around to the corners as well as second base.
But even with some sloppy defensive play, and with the backing of their solid pitching staff and offense, the Cubs are on pace to have a much better run differential in 2018 than they had in 2017.
I like this stat because it measures all three aspects of the game, offense, defense, and pitching. If the Cubs didn’t have one of those three aspects working their differential wouldn’t be very impressive. Now this isn’t a 2016 type of number (they were on pace to break records early that season) but we have to factor in Anthony Rizzo hasn’t hit, Kyle Schwarber hasn’t flexed as much power as you’d expect, there has been little help offensively from right field, and Addison Russell and Willson Contreras struggled until recently. Then you add some of the defensive issues and it’s a wonder their differential is as high as it is.
This is a huge reason I think Cubs fans should be optimistic about what can happen this season. Rizzo is just barely hitting over .200, there hasn’t been much power from the offense, and the defense is certain to be better the rest of the way.
This team is better than the 2017 team, and there really is nothing on paper or in the results that should tell you they aren’t poised for another playoff run. And even if you point to their current record, the Chicago Cubs are 152-77 in the second half under Joe Maddon. I think trusting the process and knowing Maddon will push the pedal to the metal come mid-July is the best way for Cubs fans to go about this season.
AP PHOTO/CHARLES REX ARBOGAST
