Proof Kyle Hendricks is Back
Kyle Hendricks has struggled early. In his first three starts of 2016, Kyle has given up 11 earned runs in only 16 innings pitched. Part of that problem is men getting on base. Kyle’s WHIP is .400 points higher in 2017 (before his start against Pittsburgh). Since WHIP is walks plus hits by innings pitched, naturally you would assume he’s giving up more hits and walks. He is, you’re right.
Kyle is on pace to allow 77 walks in 2017, which is 33 more baserunners via the walk than he saw in 2016. This is a result of a couple of things. One, Kyle is getting squeezed by umpires. Two, he pitches to the corners and when off, just a little, it’s a ball.
Similarly to the increased hits. With Hendricks being squeezed, he’s forced to come in, over the plate, and he’s getting crushed. Knowing throwing 85 over the middle isn’t good, he then pitches further away.
But Hendricks hasn’t been pitching in that 85 MPH window, it’s actually been closer to 83. When his fastball comes in at 83. His 79-81 MPH changeup isn’t as devastating as it was in 2017. More importantly, hitters learn to lay off the change and crush the fastball.
That is why Hendricks’ most recent start was impressive, and so important. That fastball velocity was back up, which really separated it from the changeup.
Kyle’s fastballs were well over 85 MPH and he saw a good 10 MPH difference between the two pitches. When Kyle is able to replicate his delivery it makes it impossible for hitters to tell the difference between the two pitches. When there’s that much of a difference in speed, it makes it near impossible to hit the change and keeps hitters off balance all game.
I don’t have the answers as to why the velocity drop, maybe it was the World Series run or the late spring training start, or both. Maybe it was a dead arm period. Either way it appears he is back and ready to regain form.
This will be a building process still. Not only will Kyle need to keep that speed gap, he will need to be able to do so deeper in games. Yes, he only averaged about 6 innings a game last year, but at some point Hendricks will need to go deeper with uncertainty around John Lackey and Brett Anderson.
Of any pitcher in the Cubs roster, I believe Hendricks is primed to have a phenomenal season. This remarkable start, blanking the Bucs, is just the beginning of what should be another great season from Kyle.
