Qualifying Offer – Too Risky for the Cubs, Free Agents

MLB teams with players leaving in free agency (as long as some criteria are met) can be rewarded with draft pick compensation if that player signs with another team. Traditionally, players would decline a “qualifying offer” as it would be a single-year contract and they can oftentimes earn more in free agency, or at least gain most security in a long-term deal. With the 2021 qualifying offer (QO) set at $18.9 million, this is far too risky for the Cubs, and their potential free agents.

Here are the Chicago Cubs free agents:

• Tyler Chatwood
• Jose Quintana
• Andrew Chafin
• Daniel Descalso
• Cameron Maybin
• Jason Kipnis
• Billy Hamilton
• Daniel Winkler

Now, not all players are able to receive a QO. A player must have been on your roster for the entire season and that player must not have received a QO at any point in their career. So, guys like Billy Hamilton, Cameron Maybin, and Andrew Chafin are immediately eliminated (acquired mid-season). We can logically remove Dan Winkler and Daniel Descalso from this list as either would immediately, without question, accept the QO.

That leaves Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood, and Jason Kipnis.

Personally, I think Kipnis has earned another shot here in Chicago. Kipnis earned a nice, $52 million extension after the 2013 season and was an asset until the 2017 season. While playing with a myriad of injuries, Kipnis was eventually bought out of the final option year of his deal.

Kipnis, while striking out in 30.4% of his plate appearances in 2020 (career-high), also walked more than he’s ever walked in his career (13.3%). While the strikeouts you could do without, they were mostly due to a more patient approach at the plate. Even with them, he posted a .725 OPS and was a net positive offensive player (102 wRC+ .326 wOBA 0.6 fWAR).

While I suggest keeping Kipnis on the roster – that is not by trying to use the qualifying offer. If you float $18.9 million, to a hometown kid, that didn’t do enough to earn a multi-year pact – he’s going to take it. He was here on a one-year $1 million deal, so I can see him returning on a one-year deal in the $3.2 million like range.

While I think Tyler Chatwood might find security in a multi-year deal in free agency, I don’t think it is a guarantee. If the Cubs float $18.9 million in front of him, there is a very good chance that he takes it. If that happens, and with a club that will likely have roughly $35 million to work with (assuming no trades from the current roster) that could completely derail the Cubs offseason plans. Similar to when Brandon Kintzler elected to use his player option (then the Cubs turned down a more lucrative team option), it wreaks havoc on a team’s offseason plans.

I do not see any way the Cubs offer Chatwood a new deal UNLESS they entertain him coming back as a relief pitcher – which I think he’d be smart to do. Chatwood hasn’t seen the success as a starter Theo Epstein envisioned when he signed him to a three-year deal. He did see some success in relief during the 2019 season, which if he returned to that role and really owned it, he could be the real deal. When in relief, he’s able to open his arm up more, throw with more velocity and the benders he has become even more dangerous. If he only sees a couple of hitters in a single inning, he is extremely dangerous. If a hitter sees him three times, he becomes hittable. A move to relief can extend his career and will certainly extend his earnings.

Jose Quintana is a bit of a different tale. His body of work, and lack of deep top-end free agent pitching, will serve a guy like Quintana well. He’s a guy that will go out there every fifth day, he made at least 32 starts in each of the last eight seasons before the 2020 campaign. That durability is worth money on the free-agent market.

While Quintana won’t earn $18.9 million in AAV in any deal he might get, there’s the real potential that he finds a three or four year pact in the $10-12 million AAV area. A player will take that over a single year deal, especially after watching Dak Prescott’s gruesome injury while on the franchise tag. He was injured for much of the 2020 season, but I really do not think many people will put too much weight in 2020. If COVID never happened, Quintana never cuts his hand, and likely sees another season of 25+ starts.

Even though Quintana, and to a lesser degree Chatwood, could potentially earn a QO, the Cubs would do either of them a disservice by offering it to them. When a team signs a player that declined a QO, that team would then lose one or more draft picks. If a team that exceeded the luxury tax in 2020 signs a player that declined a QO, that team would lose its second and fifth-highest draft selections. In a season like 2020, and with uncertainty in 2021, teams are going to be even less likely to sign players that declined qualifying offers.

The Cubs, don’t expect them to sign ANY player that declined a QO this year. With the Cubs at a point where they are going to need to retool internally rather soon, signing a player that declined a QO just isn’t in the cards for the Cubs. As it is, these players (especially mid-level guys) have had a hard time finding work. Hell, Craig Kimbrel – the best closer in the game from 2011 to 2018 – couldn’t get a deal until the Cubs gave him one the week draft pick compensation was dropped. If you remember Dexter Fowler, he came back to Chicago in part because his free agency was attached to draft pick compensation and the Baltimore Orioles wanted him to pay them for that lost draft pick!?

So if you had any thoughts of the Cubs signing Trevor Bauer this offseason – get that out of your head. He’s likely getting the QO from the Cincinnati Reds and that will cause the Cubs to lose multiple picks in the 2021 Rule 4 draft. Same with DJ LeMehieu and George Springer.